Mississippi State Football

Coming off a standout junior season with Mississippi State, quarterback Dak Prescott's future is the subject of conflicting reports.

The SEC Network reported Prescott would be returning to Starkville, courtesy of ESPN broadcaster Brent Musburger:

"Dak Prescott told us yesterday in our meeting he will be back next year. He will be @HailStateFB's senior QB!" Brent Musburger #OrangeBowl

— SEC Network (@SECNetwork) January 1, 2015

However, Musberger's report was contradicted by Michael Bonner of the Clarion Ledger:

As we reported in today's @clarionledger, Dak Prescott has not made a decision regarding the NFL. He's headed home to discuss future w/fam.

— Michael Bonner (@michaelbbonner) January 1, 2015

Dak reiterated to me as I left the locker room, he never told Musburger he was coming back.

— Michael Bonner (@michaelbbonner) January 1, 2015

Prescott led Mississippi State to a 10-3 record in 2014, finishing with 3,449 passing yards, 986 rushing yards, 41 total touchdowns and 11 interceptions. In the Capital One Orange Bowl versus Georgia Tech on Wednesday, he went 33-of-51 for 453 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in a 49-34 loss.

His performance in the SEC West earned him praise from Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson in early December, via Barrett Sallee of Bleacher Report:

CPJ: "I've been very impressed (with MSU). Everybody knows about Dak Prescott and what he's done. Tremendous team."

— Barrett Sallee 🇺🇸 (@BarrettSallee) December 7, 2014

The 21-year-old signal-caller emerged in 2014 as a potential Heisman candidate, with the Bulldogs rising all the way to No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings. They were unable to sustain that success, but Prescott still saw his stock rise thanks to his inspired play.

Given the success Mississippi State enjoyed with Prescott under center in 2014, his senior campaign will likely be a special one. The Bulldogs have a huge presence back on offense and remain contenders in the tough SEC West.

Having another season under his belt will also be huge for Prescott. Getting a chance to prove he's a more consistent quarterback in 2015 would boost his draft stock while he also takes care of some unfinished business in college.

Follow @RCorySmith on Twitter.

There are two ways to look at the matchup between Mississippi State and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl: Either both teams are thrilled to be playing in the game or each team is disappointed with its lot in life.

The former viewpoint would suggest that both Mississippi State and Georgia Tech are overachievers and reached a bowl game most folks wouldn't have pegged them to reach this season.

The latter viewpoint points out that Mississippi State was at one point the No. 1 team in the country, while Georgia Tech lost a tight game to Florida State in the ACC title game.

Any way you slice it, Wednesday's game should be a fun one that will come down to the wire. Mississippi State is going to sneak away with a victory, however.

For starters, the Bulldogs have the best offensive player in this game in quarterback Dak Prescott and an excellent running back in Josh Robinson. Prescott had an awesome 2014, throwing for 2,996 yards, 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 939 yards and another 13 touchdowns.

He's been tough to stop all year, and as David M. Hale of ESPN.com writes, the one way to slow him down hasn't exactly been one of Georgia Tech's strengths this season:

In Mississippi State's 10 wins, QB Dak Prescott had a QBR of 81.4. In its two losses, his QBR was just 34.0. That makes the job for Tech's defense clear: Rattle Prescott. That job won't be easy, of course. Prescott was a Heisman favorite for much of the season, and he's one of the nation's top QBs. Moreover, Georgia Tech has struggled to consistently get pressure on the passer, ranking 105th nationally in sack rate. When it recorded two or more sacks in a game, Tech was 6-0 and allowed just 18 points per game. When it didn't, Tech was just 2-3 vs. FBS foes, allowing an average of 36 points per game.

When they aren't dealing with Prescott, they'll have to deal with Robinson, who rushed for 1,128 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. The Bulldogs boast a well-rounded offense that averages 506.2 yards (ranked ninth in the nation) and 37.2 points (14th) per game, so they'll attack Georgia Tech in a number of ways.

For Georgia Tech to win this game, two things need to happen: It needs to control the ball on offense and be opportunistic on defense.

It's managed to do both for much of the year. Head coach Paul Johnson’s option offense and standout quarterback Justin Thomas (965 rushing yards this year) have led Georgia Tech to the second-ranked rushing offense in the country (333.6 yards per game), one that ranks third in time of possession (34:02).

Mississippi State star linebacker Benardrick McKinney is going to have his hands full in this one. Really, all of the Bulldogs will. They talked with Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com about preparing for the triple-option attack:

"This will be the first real deal since high school and it was hard to stop then, so it's going to be even harder to stop on this level," Mississippi State cornerback Jamerson Love told reporters in South Florida. "They want to run the ball, but they will sneak it and throw it on you. They have some huge receivers. We just have to go out and play physical all game."

[Head coach Dan] Mullen added the biggest challenge is "the chop blocks—you can’t simulate that at practice. When you’re getting that type of speed and how aggressive all the chop blocks are, that’s one of the things that’s a huge challenge in preparing for these guys and how fast we adjust to the speed of the game."

The Bulldogs have been inconsistent against the run this season, yes, but they are better at defending that than the pass. While Georgia Tech can throw the ball around a little bit, its bread is buttered by running the ball. Plus, Hale reports the Yellow Jackets will be without star receiver DeAndre Smelter, which will really hurt the passing game.

That means that the Yellow Jackets may not be able to fully exploit Mississippi State's biggest weakness, a pass defense giving up 285.2 yards per game through the air (125th).

Georgia Tech doesn't only hold on to the ball—it also likes to take it away, forcing 27 turnovers this year and turning six of them into defensive touchdowns.

Georgia Tech's defense is going to have a hard time slowing down this Mississippi State offense, but if they can capitalize on a few turnovers, the momentum could swing in the Yellow Jackets' direction.

Still, the explosive nature of Mississippi State's offense and the ability of Prescott to take over at any moment is going to make the Bulldogs tough to beat. Georgia Tech is going to have to completely control the ball on offense, come up with timely turnovers and find a way to slow down Prescott and Robinson.

That seems like too much to ask from this Georgia Tech squad. This one is going to be close, but the Bulldogs will prevail in the end.

A 10-2 record at a program where 10-win seasons are the college football equivalent of a Sasquatch sighting, the first No. 1 ranking in program history and a quarterback who was in the thick of the Heisman Trophy race for the majority of the year would typically land any coach consensus SEC Coach of the Year honors.

Well, except for Mississippi State's Dan Mullen.

The sixth-year head coach of the Bulldogs has racked up quite a few awards so far this offseason but was robbed of the SEC Coach of the Year award by his own peers. 

The conference announced Wednesday that Missouri head coach Gary Pinkel is the 2014 SEC Coach of the Year, as voted on by the league's coaches.

Yes, the same Pinkel who lost at home to Indiana and got shut out by Georgia at home. Sure, back-to-back SEC East titles are impressive, as is the undefeated SEC road record over that time span. 

But was there anything historic about Pinkel's season this year?

Aside from the back-to-back SEC East titles, not really. Sure, Missouri navigated through the rather calm waters of the SEC East with some new pieces of the puzzle to get back to the Georgia Dome. But we already knew Pinkel is a good coach. He has produced double-digit win seasons five times since 2007.

He's a tremendous coach who has proved he can do less with more time and time again across two conferences. This season was great, but it's also par for the course for Pinkel.

Meanwhile, Mullen's season is dripping with history.

In addition to the 10-2 record and the first No. 1 ranking in program history, the Bulldogs will play Georgia Tech in the 2015 Capital One Orange Bowl—their first Orange Bowl appearance since 1941 (following the 1940 season).

That's not only worthy of coach of the year honors; that's worthy of a parade in Starkville.

Year	Overall Record	Conf. Record	Bowl
2014	10-2	6-2	Orange
1999	10-2	6-2	Peach (W)
1940	10-0-1	4-0-1	Orange (W)

This is a program that has reached the 10-win mark only two other times since the turn of the century—the 20th century. 

If anybody should recognize the work Mullen did this year in Starkville, it's his peers. He took a team that, according to recruiting services, isn't nearly as talented as the others in the SEC West and made it play like a champion in the toughest neighborhood in the nation.

That deserves recognition.

Sure, Mullen has already filled his trophy case this offseason, including SEC Coach of the Year awards from Athlon Sports and The Associated Press, according to Michael Bonner of The Clarion-Ledger. Those are great, and Mullen should be proud. But he didn't get the one that matters most.

That's a shame.

Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a co-host of the CFB Hangover on Bleacher Report Radio (Sundays, 9-11 a.m. ET) on Sirius 93, XM 208.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of cfbstats.com, and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.

Mississippi State's College Football Playoff chances disappeared in Oxford on Saturday, as Ole Miss topped the fourth-ranked Bulldogs 31-17 in a game in which Ole Miss' defense rattled quarterback Dak Prescott and the potent Bulldog offense.

In a contest that featured two teams on the rise this season, only one—Ole Miss—looked like it had staying power.

It was the second time this month—the first being the loss to Alabama in Tuscaloosa—that the Bulldogs looked outmanned.

What made Mississippi State's 2014 run so special is that they did it with only one 5-star recruit on the roster. By contrast, Alabama had eight 5-star starters on its depth chart entering this season, according to Drew Champlin of AL.com. Scheming, coaching and heart can make up for a lot, but if you are going to be an elite team in the SEC, you need to have elite talent.

A Bulldog defense that was torched all season long by teams that could consistently stretch the field was lit up by Ole Miss on Saturday, as quarterback Bo Wallace hit big passes when they mattered to rack up 296 yards in the 31-17 win in Oxford.

This is a defense that came into the game with the worst pass defense in the conference (281.4 yards per game) and had been living off red-zone defense.

Ole Miss took red-zone defense out of the equation, though, scoring its final pair of touchdowns from outside the red zone to pull away from the Bulldogs in the second half.

This is with two defensive backs—Taveze Calhoun and Jamerson Love—who were 3-star prospects. This is with a safety—Jay Hughes—who was a 3-star prospect. Those players played great at times, but natural talent creates consistency, and that was what was lacking in Starkville this season.

Recruiting rankings don't matter all that much to Mullen.

"If you get caught up too much in trying to win national signing day and not getting the guys you need, you hurt your program," he said on the SEC coaches teleconference on Nov. 12.

Winning national signing day, though, gets you players like Ole Miss defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche, defensive end C.J. Johnson, Alabama running back T.J. Yeldon, wide receiver Amari Cooper and safety Landon Collins—all of whom have been instrumental in Mississippi State's only two losses of the season.

It's not just the X's and the O's, it's the Jimmys and the Joes.

Mullen is a tremendous play-caller, and his staff clearly knows how to coach his players up, but when he runs into some of the best coaches in the SEC, sometimes talent wins out.

Talent won out on Saturday, it won out in Tuscaloosa and it is the reason Mississippi State will be sitting at home during the College Football Playoff.

Mississippi State's average recruiting-class rank over the last five years is 30th. The six other SEC West teams combined have only posted recruiting classes lower than 30th five times over that same time span.

This was Mullen's window, as Bud Elliott of TomahawkNation.com points out:

https://twitter.com/TomahawkNation/status/537416870295785473

The entire SEC West is bowl-eligible this season, but aside from Alabama, none of those teams are elite. The Bulldogs have 16 seniors on their current two-deep depth chart, and junior running back Josh Robinson and quarterback Dak Prescott will, at the very least, explore their NFL options after the season.

It was a great year for Mississippi State, but if it is going to become a trend and not an occasional blip on the radar, the recruiting is going to have to pick up. A prolonged stint in the national conversation will certainly help that become reality, but when you have Alabama, Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and LSU recruiting their respective tails off on an annual basis, it has to happen consistently.

Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a co-host of the CFB Hangover on Bleacher Report Radio (Sundays, 9-11 a.m. ET) on Sirius 93, XM 208.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of cfbstats.com, and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.

In a game that looked like it would be important for both teams a little more than a month ago, the Mississippi State Bulldogs opened as small road favorites against the Ole Miss Rebels for Saturday’s Egg Bowl.

The Rebels have seen their season fall apart, though, over the past five weeks, dropping three of their last four games and going 0-4 against the spread.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs remain in the national-championship picture after improving to 10-1 with a 51-0 rout of the Vanderbilt Commodores last week as 29.5-point home favorites.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.6-25.8 Bulldogs

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Mississippi State obviously has a lot more to lose here since a loss would essentially end the team’s bid for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs rebounded nicely from their only setback of the season, blanking Vanderbilt last Saturday and covering the spread for the second time in as many weeks.

Mississippi State has won four of the last five meetings with Ole Miss both straight up and against the spread, and the school has also enjoyed a lot of success against SEC opponents on the road lately with a 4-1 mark vs. the line in its past five games under that scenario.

The Bulldogs have played well defensively as well recently, allowing an average of just 12.8 points over their last four games.

Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread

Despite losing three times in four games, the Rebels can still ruin Mississippi State’s season simply by winning the Egg Bowl on Saturday. They will be treating this annual intrastate rivalry game like their national championship, knowing how much it means to the Bulldogs.

Handing Mississippi State a loss in this spot would allow Ole Miss to end the regular season on a positive note and still put the team in solid position to play in a good bowl game.

Before last week’s 30-0 loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks as three-point road favorites, the Rebels had seen their previous two setbacks decided by a combined seven points, and they started the season with a 7-0 mark SU and ATS.

Smart Pick

Ole Miss still had a lot to play for a week ago, as a win over the Razorbacks would have made this a much bigger game. Instead, the Rebels are left to wonder what might have been had they figured out a way to win at least one of the three games they have lost.

Their state of mind cannot help but be a little off after getting blanked by Arkansas, while Mississippi State will be very focused on getting a victory here to help its cause in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games while Ole Miss is clearly reeling and will have a difficult time recovering from this rough stretch. Bet Mississippi State to come through instead as road chalk.

Betting Trends

• Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road
• Mississippi is 6-1 SU in its last seven games when playing at home against Mississippi State

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.

Even in the age of the College Football Playoff, the sport is essentially a beauty contest.

Despite being ranked No. 4 last week by the College Football Playoff selection committee, Mississippi State needs to use its Saturday showdown with Ole Miss as the runway. 

If Alabama wins the Iron Bowl with Auburn, it'll be the last chance for the Bulldogs to leave an impression on the committee. Because of that, head coach Dan Mullen's crew needs style points against the Rebels on national television on Saturday afternoon.

As Mississippi State offensive lineman Ben Beckwith notes (via: Bob Carskadon of HailState.com), the Rebels want to play spoiler.

Ben Beckwith on Egg Bowl: "I'm sure they’re gonna be excited. They’re trying to ruin our season. We’re the top dog in the state."

— Bob Carskadon (@bobcarskadon) November 23, 2014

The Bulldogs' spot in the four-team event is tenuous at best, with Baylor, Ohio State and TCU all nipping at their heels. Some or all of those teams could boast conference championships—a stated point of emphasis for the committee—when all is said and done, and Mississippi State's job this week should be to minimize the impact of those conference championships as much as possible.

What specifically does Mississippi State need to show?

Game Control

The Bulldogs need "game control." Lots and lots of "game control."

Unfortunately, that term has crept into the national narrative in this new age of the four-team playoff, and with Ole Miss reeling following its 30-0 loss at Arkansas last week, Mississippi State needs to earn a lot of game control points against an Ole Miss team whose flaws have surfaced over the final month of the season.

Ole Miss' loss last week really hurts Mississippi State. Sure, Arkansas looks a little tougher now, but a Top 10 matchup on rivalry weekend would have been the perfect way to go out on a high note.

Instead, the Rebels are beat up with star wide receiver Laquon Treadwell out and quarterback Bo Wallace nursing an ankle injury, and they haven't been able to run all season long even at optimal health. Mississippi State's front seven has to hold the Rebels rushing attack in check and force "Bad Bo" to make an appearance. 

The Bulldogs' resume is more beefy than a team like Baylor's, which only has beaten three teams with records above .500. But Mississippi State doesn't have a top-end win like Baylor's over No. 5 TCU or one as emphatic as the Bears' 48-14 road win at Oklahoma.

A win over Ole Miss wouldn't really change the fact that Baylor has the better signature win, but if the Bulldogs go on the road and emphatically beat a team in the lower half of the Top 25, it would at least bolster the case.

A Complete Defense

There are no great teams in college football this year, there are just a bunch of good ones. Mississippi State is in that group, and proving to the committee that it has fixed its flaws late in the season would be a good way to tie a bow on the resume.

What are Mississippi State's problems? Its defense has holes.

Sure, the Bulldogs are giving up just 18.4 points per game (11th in the nation) and boast the best red-zone defense in the country (59.46 percent), but they're giving up 400.7 yards per game and 4.24 yards per play.

Simply put, defensive coordinator Geoff Collins' crew bends but doesn't break very much.

It needs to be as stiff as a board on Saturday.

These are uncharted waters for all of us, and while the committee can set forth specific metrics that are emphasized, Mississippi State would be best-served to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that it has become a truly complete football team by holding Ole Miss' offense in check everywhere on the field, not just inside the 20-yard line.

Team	Total Def.	Total Def. Rank	Red-Zone Def.	Red-Zone Def. Rank	Scoring Def.	Scoring Def. Rank
Mississippi State	400.7 YPG	70	59.45%	1	18.4 PPG	11
Baylor	329.7 YPG	18	84.62%	83	21.7 PPG	27
TCU	278.8 YPG	54	86.21%	94	23.1 PPG	24
Ohio State	330.4 YPG	19	81.82%	57	22.5 PPG	30

Strength vs. Strength

Ole Miss is known for its stifling defense that's giving up just 309.9 yards per game and 179.0 through the air, which will present a tough challenge for Mullen, quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Josh Robinson.

Mississippi State's offense needs to show that it's strong against one of the best, and that means big days from Prescott, Robinson and the loaded group of receivers that includes Jameon Lewis and De'Runnya Wilson.

Prescott thinks that the 51-0 win over Vanderbilt that saw the Bulldogs put up 502 total yards and break the 500-yard mark for the eighth time this season served as a nice tuneup (via: Carskadon):

Dak: "I think we got back to that team we were earlier in the year." Others players have shared a similar sentiment.

— Bob Carskadon (@bobcarskadon) November 23, 2014

Prove it. 

Go out there and play the brand of Mississippi State football that earned the No. 1 ranking earlier in the season over defending national champ Florida State, despite the 'Noles not losing a game.

This is a beauty pageant, and there's a runway waiting for Mississippi State in Oxford on Saturday afternoon.

It needs to turn some heads, regardless of where it's ranked going in.

Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a co-host of the CFB Hangover on Bleacher Report Radio (Sundays, 9-11 a.m. ET) on Sirius 93, XM 208.

Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. All stats are courtesy of CFBStats.com, and all recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.

The Mississippi State Bulldogs defeated the Vanderbilt Commodores 51-0 on Saturday to remain in the hunt for a spot in the first annual College Football Playoff. 

The Bulldogs, behind Heisman candidate Dak Prescott, rolled up over 500 yards of total offense, forced three turnovers and held the Commodores to just 224 total yards.

Prescott, who exited the game late in the third quarter, completed 16 of 21 passes for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Prescott also ran for a touchdown, too. 

Mississippi State ran for 284 yards, and 11 different Bulldogs caught a pass. 

It all comes down to the Egg Bowl for Mississippi State. The Bulldogs head to Oxford next week with a spot in the College Football Playoff on the line. 

How did Mississippi State grade out in its win over Vanderbilt?

Positional Unit	First-Half Grade	Second-Half Grade
Pass Offense	A	A-
Rush Offense	A	A
Pass Defense	A	A
Rush Defense	A	A
Special Teams	B	A-
Coaching	A	A

Mississippi State Bulldogs Game Grades Analysis

Pass Offense: Dak Prescott was terrific. He got everyone involved in the offense and did not turn the ball over. He completed just under 80 percent of his passes and tossed three touchdown passes.

Rush Offense: The Bulldogs ran for 284 yards, as six different players ran for at least 28 yards apiece. Brandon Holloway led the Bulldogs with 65 yards on 10 carries. The team averaged just under 6 yards per carry.

Pass Defense: MSU picked off two passes and put pressure on Vanderbilt's three quarterbacks all night long. Vanderbilt completed less than 50 percent of its passes. 

Rush Defense: Vanderbilt's leading rusher, Ralph Webb, had just 16 yards on 11 carries. Vandy's leading rusher was quarterback Johnny McCrary, who rushed for just 20 yards. 

Special Teams: Darrius Sims is an excellent return man for the Commodores, yet MSU held Sims to an average of just 16 yards per kick return. Evan Sobiesk did miss an extra point for the Bulldogs. 

Coaching: Dan Mullen had his team prepared. This team knows it has a shot at the national championship and played like it on Saturday night. The offense was balanced, and the defense was aggressive. 

The dream season for Mississippi State has reached a rocky stretch in recent days—on and off the field. Less than a week after losing to Alabama, the Bulldogs' recruiting tactics are under scrutiny in the wake of news that longtime quarterback commit Chason Virgil no longer holds a standard scholarship offer.

Jeff Neill, his head coach at West Mesquite High School in Texas, didn't hold back while acknowledging the development on Twitter on Thursday night:

Miss St. pulls scholarship from our QB Chason Virgil w/16 days til graduation. Classless move by "coach" Dan Mullen

— Jeff Neill (@neill_jeff) November 21, 2014

According to Neill, the team reached out to let Virgil know he didn't fit in their immediate plans anymore. To make matters worse, the 3-star passer expected to enroll early at Mississippi State by graduating from high school next month.

"Mississippi State called to let me know that they no longer had a scholarship available," Neill told Devin Hasson of Star Local Media. "They pushed him to graduate early...because they wanted him to go through the spring, and then at the last minute, Mississippi State decided to change their offer."

Rather than arriving on campus as a fully covered student-athlete as planned, Virgil was asked to accept grayshirt status. This would have left him off scholarship until at least January 2016, an alteration that led Virgil and the Bulldogs to part ways.

"Just knowing that I am graduating early in a month, it is hard to just sit out a whole year without playing and being in a program," Virgil told Paul Jones of 247Sports. "So I have to start over now. I haven't talked to any other schools in a while so I just have to see what happens."

Virgil, rated 19th nationally among pro-style quarterbacks in 247Sports' composite rankings, committed to Mississippi State in May. His frustration is understandable given an extremely late change of heart from head coach Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs staff.

"(They said) they had four quarterbacks there already and they felt it was not a position of need at this time," Neill said. "He doesn't want to play for a coach that is going to make these kinds of decisions. Going to any college, you want to have a coach you can trust and believe in."

Those comments are certainly a shot across the bow for Mullen, who has seen his stock rise nationally during a historically successful tenure in Starkville. He is the first Mississippi State coach to qualify for five straight bowl appearances and currently has his program in position to compete in the inaugural College Football Playoff.

Victories have translated into improved recruiting efforts. The Bulldogs' 2015 class currently rates 13th nationally in 247Sports' composite rankings. For the first time in six months, it no longer features the Texas quarterback.

Virgil, who has 2,361 passing yards and 35 touchdowns this season, previously considered offers from the likes of Florida, Nebraska, Clemson and Missouri. It remains to be seen which teams will still express interest as most have filled quarterback slots in this recruiting class.

He maintained popularity among fellow Mississippi State commits throughout his recruitment and undoubtedly formed relationships with players across the country who he considered future collegiate teammates.

"He's definitely a playmaker," Mississippi State wide receiver pledge Justin Johnson told me this summer. "We've got a lot of guys coming in that will help the offense continue to grow and he's a big part of that."

It should be interesting to see how Bulldogs recruits react to this news and how members of the Mississippi State staff handle questions related to the issue. So far, we only understand the story from one point of view and it doesn't paint a very flattering picture of America's surprise title contender.

Recruit ratings courtesy of 247Sports.

Cue the #SECBias arguments, because Mississippi State is about to test them in the next few weeks. 

The latest College Football Playoff Top 25 was released Tuesday, and the Bulldogs, fresh off of a 25-20 loss to now No. 1 Alabama, took the fourth and final spot in the playoff field should the season end today. TCU, Ohio State and Baylor are No. 5, No. 6 and No. 7, respectively, and seem to be the final cutoff for teams with playoff hopes. 

However, playoff chair Jeff Long said "the difference between teams four through seven is very narrow." (H/t Stewart Mandel, Fox Sports.) 

In other words, Mississippi State is no sure thing when it comes to a playoff spot. The good thing for Dan Mullen's team is that no one in college football is a sure thing. 

The first and simplest thing that the Bulldogs have to do to be in the discussion at year's end is win—that, or pray for losses around them. Without an Alabama loss between now and the SEC Championship Game, the Bulldogs do not control their destiny. The regular-season-ending game at Ole Miss is potentially Mississippi State's last chance to get a key victory. 

Would that be enough? The playoff has been set up to field the "four best teams," not necessarily four conference or divisional champions. However, the number of teams in position to win their conferences atop the rankings suggests it's a major factor. 

I’m not convinced of this at all. RT @Stan_Mims: @DanWolken If State wins out they are in!

— Dan Wolken (@DanWolken) November 17, 2014

What Mississippi State's playoff hopes come down to is whether the committee thinks the Bulldogs have the strength of schedule to fend off a Big Ten champ Ohio State or Big 12 co-champ, be it TCU or Baylor.

Mississippi State plays in the SEC West, considered to be the best division in college football. However, as the season has progressed, some of that shine has worn off. The Bulldogs' best win is against Auburn, a team that just got housed by Georgia. 

Team	Wins vs. Top-25 Teams	Loss vs. Top-25 Team	Nonconference Schedule	Remaining Games
No. 4 Mississippi State	1 (No. 14 Auburn)	1 (No. 1 Alabama)	USM, UAB, USA, UT-Martin	Vanderbilt, No. 8 Ole Miss
No. 5 TCU	3 (No. 12 K-State, No. 21 OU, No. 25 UM)	1 (No. 7 Baylor)	Samford, Minnesota, SMU	Texas, Iowa State
No. 6 Ohio State	2 (No. 11 Michigan State, No. 25 Minnesota)	Lost to unranked Virginia Tech	Navy, Virginia Tech, Kent State, Cincinnati	Indiana, Michigan
No. 7 Baylor	2 (No. 5 TCU, No. 21 Oklahoma)	Lost to unranked West Virginia	SMU, Northwestern State, Buffalo	Oklahoma St., Texas Tech, No. 12 K-State

Mississippi State got credit for staying close against Alabama, even though the game wasn't as close as the score indicated. The Tide led 19-3 at the half, and Mississippi State's final touchdown came with 15 seconds left in the game.

Given that the committee is more inclined reward a team for what it has done (won) vs. what it hasn't (lost), that credit's shelf life is limited. Long has said in the past that there's no way to project conference champions, so teams aren't going to get credit for what they haven't done yet. That will obviously be re-evaluated at year's end. 

Adding to that is Mississippi State's nonconference schedule, consisting of such blue-blood programs as Southern Miss, UAB, South Alabama and UT-Martin. That slate is undeniably soft. Now that Mississippi State has a loss, more light has been cast upon those four games. 

fsu gets no “defending champion” points. i’m fine with that. except the sec seems to be clearly getting legacy points. so what is it?

— bomani (@bomani_jones) November 19, 2014

Baylor, Ohio State and TCU generally had light nonconference schedules as well. If Mississippi State had one marquee nonconference win, similar to Oregon's victory over Michigan State, then perhaps strength of schedule/quality wins would matter more than winning a conference. At the very least, it'd be another layer to the discussion.

The confusing thing about the committee's thought process—or, at least how it has been relayed—is that there are numerous things that are taken into consideration that don't always appear to be evenly applied. As a result, there are a lot of conflicting narratives about what's important. 

For one week, Mississippi State was the benefactor of the committee's thought process. As the season winds to an end, however, the Bulldogs aren't in the position a team would want to be in. When all is said and done, it wouldn't be surprising if that came back to bite them.  

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football.