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TCU vs. Georgia: 2023 CFP National Championship Odds, Predictions and More

Jan 2, 2023
ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 31: Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) scores a touchdown during the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Georgia Bulldogs on December 31, 2022, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - DECEMBER 31: Georgia Bulldogs running back Kendall Milton (2) scores a touchdown during the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl College Football Playoff Semifinal game between the Ohio State Buckeyes and the Georgia Bulldogs on December 31, 2022, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by John Adams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Georgia Bulldogs will try to accomplish something that has not been done in college football in two decades at the College Football Playoff National Championship.

Georgia is aiming to become the first repeat champion at the FBS level since the USC Trojans in 2003 and 2004.

Kirby Smart's team is projected to win by close to two touchdowns over the TCU Horned Frogs on January 9.

Georgia is a 13.5-point favorite against the Big 12 side that lost once this season and handed the Michigan Wolverines their first loss in the semifinal round.

TCU proved that it could compete with one of the best teams in the sport on New Years' Eve, and it may be capable of sticking with Georgia for four quarters inside Sofi Stadium.

However, a trend from the last four CFB National Championship Games could play in Georgia's favor to cover the spread.

The last four title games have been decided by 15 or more points, including Georgia's triumph over the Alabama Crimson Tide last January.


CFB Playoff National Championship Game Info

Date: Monday, January 9

Start Time: 7:30 p.m. ET

TV: ESPN

Live Stream: ESPN.com and ESPN app


Game Odds

Spread: Georgia (-13.5)

Over/Under: 62.5

Money Line: Georgia (-500; bet $500 to win $100), TCU (+400; bet $100 to win $400)

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook


The 13.5-point spread for the National Championship makes sense after you look at how Georgia and TCU have been valued all season.

TCU was never a double-digit favorite in Big 12 play, while Georgia was consistently favored by multiple scores.

Georgia did not cover as a 6.5-point favorite against the Ohio State Buckeyes. It needed a fourth-quarter comeback to remain in the hunt for its repeat title.

Georgia's defensive lapses in the passing game should open up hope for TCU to stay in the contest behind the Max Duggan-Quentin Johnston duo.

Johnston is one of the best wide receivers in college football, and he could wreak havoc inside the Georgia secondary—as Marvin Harrison Jr. did in the Peach Bowl.

TCU's path to victory, or at least keeping the game close, is through a successful passing game and for Duggan to match the output of Stetson Bennett at quarterback.

The Horned Frogs have won some low-scoring games this season, but they are better suited to win a game that features a ton of points.

Georgia proved over the last two years that it can win in any fashion. The Bulldogs have had an answer for any challenges that have come their way in that stretch.

The Bulldogs' championship experience and resiliency could be important on Monday because they know exactly what to expect from a National Championship Game.

TCU was caught out early by Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl, but it weathered the storm thanks to mistakes made by the Wolverines.

Georgia could produce a similar start as Michigan but convert on its opportunities and put TCU in a hole it has to climb out of all game.

The Bulldogs have three double-digit victories over ranked teams this season. They had five wins of that variety last season as well.

Georgia has the killer touch that could put TCU down by multiple scores, while the Horned Frogs have mostly been known for playing in close games.

If Georgia's defense improves even slightly from the Peach Bowl, it could break out to a large lead and cover the spread while winning its second title in a row.

Prediction: Georgia 35, TCU 20


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College Football Playoffs 2023: Georgia vs. TCU Championship Game Odds, Info

Jan 1, 2023
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - DECEMBER 31: Stetson Bennett #13 of the Georgia Bulldogs reacts after a touchdown during the first quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 31, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - DECEMBER 31: Stetson Bennett #13 of the Georgia Bulldogs reacts after a touchdown during the first quarter against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on December 31, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

The TCU Horned Frogs and the Georgia Bulldogs will meet in the College Football Playoff national championship game on Jan. 9 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, following their victories in the Fiesta Bowl and Peach Bowl, respectively.

TCU defeated the Michigan Wolverines 51-45 in the Fiesta Bowl behind an impressive performance from quarterback Max Duggan, while Georgia defeated Ohio State in the Peach Bowl 42-41 thanks to Stetson Bennett.

This will be the first time since December 2016 that TCU and Georgia meet and just the fifth matchup overall. The Bulldogs have won each of their first four games against the Horned Frogs, but a lot has changed since then.

Both programs will put everything on the line to claim the national title, but with the big game a week away, here's a look at the odds, information and a preview of the matchup.


2023 National Title Game Information

Who: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 TCU

When: Monday, Jan. 9, at 7:30 p.m.

Where: SoFi Stadium

How to Watch: ESPN


Odds


TCU Preview

The Horned Frogs entered the 2022 season unranked in the AP Top 25 poll, and they're now in the CFP championship game thanks to tremendous coaching from Sonny Dykes, who is in his first year as head coach at TCU.

Entering Saturday, Dykes had led TCU to a 12-1 record this year, and the Horned Frogs captured their 13th win of the season in an upset of Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl to become the first Big 12 team to reach the title game in the CFP era.

TCU is led by none other than Duggan, who was a Heisman Trophy finalist this year. Entering the Fiesta Bowl, he had completed 64.9 percent of his passes for 3,321 yards and 30 touchdowns against four interceptions in 13 games, in addition to rushing for 404 yards and six scores.

Against Michigan, Duggan completed 14 of 29 passes for 225 yards and two touchdowns against two interceptions, in addition to rushing for 57 yards and two scores. He was dominant.

The TCU offense has also relied heavily on wide receiver Quentin Johnston and running back Kendre Miller this season.

Johnston entered the Fiesta Bowl having caught 53 passes for 903 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games, while Miller had rushed for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns in 13 games.

Against Michigan, Johnston caught six passes for 163 yards and one touchdown, while Miller posted eight carries for 57 yards before exiting with a knee injury.

Miller's status for the national title game is uncertain, but if he's sidelined, the TCU offense will undoubtedly be hurting. Emari Demercado would be in line to be the team's starting running back if Miller can't go.

Demercado entered the Fiesta Bowl having rushed for 472 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games. He rushed for 150 yards and one score in the team's win over Michigan.

With TCU's win over Michigan, they proved they belong in the College Football Playoff. Can the Horned Frogs continue their storybook season with a win over Georgia in the title game?


Georgia Preview

It's really no surprise that the Bulldogs are back in the College Football Playoff national title game for the second consecutive season.

Georgia had been the No. 1-ranked team in the nation for much of the 2022 season, and there was little doubt it would make the CFP. However, the Bulldogs faced their most challenging matchup of the season against Ohio State in the Peach Bowl.

Quarterback Stetson Bennett has been the heart and soul of the Georgia offense, but he didn't have the best performance against Ohio State, completing 23 of 34 passes for 398 yards and three touchdowns against one interception.

Bennett's lone interception was costly as Ohio State capitalized on the ensuing drive, taking a 21-7 lead. However, he kept the offense in it all night long and bounced back late in the game, leading Georgia on a game-winning touchdown drive with less than one minute remaining in the game to put the Bulldogs up 42-41.

While the team's most challenging matchup came against Ohio State in the Peach Bowl, Georgia has been impressive all season.

Entering the Peach Bowl, Bennett, a Heisman Trophy finalist, had completed 68.1 percent of his passes for 3,425 yards and 20 touchdowns against six interceptions in 13 games.

Tight end Brock Bowers has been his top target throughout the season. He entered Saturday's game having caught 52 passes for 726 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games, and he caught four passes for 64 yards against Ohio State.

Running back Kenny McIntosh has also been a huge part of the offense, having rushed for 709 yards and 10 scores in 13 games. He rushed for 70 yards and caught five passes for 56 yards and one score against Ohio State.

While the Georgia offense is respectable, its defense is the heart and soul of the team. Entering the Peach Bowl allowing 292.1 yards of total offense, it ranked seventh in the nation.

If the Georgia defense can come up big against TCU, the Bulldogs will become the first team in CFP history to win back-to-back national titles.

TCU's Fairy Tale Football Season Continues After Legendary Fiesta Bowl Win

Adam Kramer
Jan 1, 2023
TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston
TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston

First, take a moment.

Breathe.

One more time.

Breathe.

Gather the thoughts and emotions that poured out during the marathon that was the Fiesta Bowl. While we live in a world of constant hyperbole, TCU and Michigan delivered one of the greatest, weirdest games the sport has ever seen.

In short, TCU won 51-45. The Horned Frogs seized an early lead, and they ultimately hung on despite the Wolverines' constant responses.

TCU will play in the national championship on Monday, January 9, in Los Angeles. The magnitude of that sentence and the accomplishment is not lost and will be appreciated momentarily.

But the game itself requires proper context first and foremost. This wasn't just another routine College Football Playoff semifinal. A final score will not do its brilliance the appropriate justice.

This was a chaotic, imperfect mess, and that is by no means a negative. In fact, it's quite the opposite.

The two teams totaled 96 points and 1,016 yards of offense. The third quarter alone featured 44 combined points, which is hard to comprehend.

For a while, they seemed to trade touchdowns every few minutes. The pace of the second half was extraordinary from the beginning.

TCU's Emari Demercado celebrates with teammates after rushing for a touchdown.
TCU's Emari Demercado celebrates with teammates after rushing for a touchdown.

And yes, there were miscues. In a way, they only added to the drama. Both teams combined to commit more than 100 yards in penalties (mainly on TCU). They also turned the ball over three times apiece. Two of those turnovers resulted in TCU defensive touchdowns.

There were controversial calls made by the officials, including an early review that took Michigan points off the board. This play, which was ruled a touchdown reception by Roman Wilson on the field, was then ruled down at the 1-yard line. The Wolverines ultimately fumbled while trying to punch it in.

Players (and officials) struggled to keep their footing on the State Farm Stadium surface, which created a slew of broken plays and missed tackles throughout the game. This wasn't a positive by any means. But it did inject a fascinating variable into a game chock full of them.

And yes, there were spectacular individual efforts along the way. TCU quarterback Max Duggan, the Heisman Trophy runner-up, delivered four touchdowns—two passing and two running. One of those scores went to his favorite target, wideout Quentin Johnston, who finished with 163 receiving yards. On defense, linebacker Dee Winters was everywhere for the Horned Frogs.

In a losing effort, Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy had moments of excellence. Running back Donovan Edwards and wideouts Ronnie Bell and Roman Wilson had their moments. When Michigan fell behind 18 points early on, no one flinched.

Michigan's J.J. McCarthy pressured by TCU's Jamoi Hodge.
Michigan's J.J. McCarthy pressured by TCU's Jamoi Hodge.

Since the CFP was assembled, one theme has remained consistent: The semifinals have largely been clunkers.

There have been, of course, a few exceptions. The 2015 Sugar Bowl between Alabama and Ohio State was a thriller. The 2018 Rose Bowl between Oklahoma and Georgia went to two overtimes and delivered 102 overall points. The 2020 Fiesta Bowl between the Buckeyes and Clemson was plenty good.

This game, however, warrants its own wing in the CFP museum, for all that it was and all that it wasn't.

This wasn't a Picasso; it was a completely unique football game that seemed to offer constant twists and turns. It was a game that TCU fans will relive for generations. It was an afternoon (and evening) that the Michigan faithful will struggle to forget for quite some time.

The outcome undoubtedly plays into this chaotic theme. After a season of close calls and a slew of doubt along the way, TCU will have an opportunity to win the national championship.

In a sport that has offered little postseason unpredictably in recent years, this is an enormous outlier. College football has become increasingly top heavy. The defies a movement that has largely plagued the postseason.

Heck, the playoff format was expanded as a direct result.

Johnston and head coach Sonny Dykes
Johnston and head coach Sonny Dykes

The Horned Frogs have willingly accepted the role of Cinderella. They began the season unranked, and it took many weeks for the masses to take them seriously. They are now 60 minutes away from being the last team standing.

This is no longer a story about a "fun" football team. After Saturday, that narrative is long dead.

TCU didn't just beat Michigan. It competed up front across both lines, which was an area that many assumed would be a struggle. The Horned Frogs didn't look overwhelmed physically. They made the nation's No. 3 scoring defense appear almost helpless at times.

Yes, there were plenty of scares along the way to reach this point. TCU's weekly ritual of falling behind and coming back in games had many assuming the losses would eventually mount.

One finally came in the Big 12 Championship Game against Kansas State, although it wasn't enough to keep the Horned Frogs out of the postseason.

Nearly a month later, that loss is a distant, insignificant memory. In fact, the entire fairy tale that got them to this moment, on the cusp of history, seems almost inconsequential.

TCU is here, whether you're ready to embrace it or not. It's only fitting that it found its way into the national championship by winning a game symbolic of its entire season. There were touchdowns and points and drama. Always drama.

It was imperfect. It was magnificent. It was historic. The fairy tale lives on for at least another week, and it might carry forward much longer than that.

TCU to Honor Mike Leach with Helmet Decal in Fiesta Bowl CFP Semifinal vs. Michigan

Dec 30, 2022
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 19: Mississippi State Bulldogs Head Coach Mike Leach addresses the media during the SEC Football Kickoff Media Days on July 19, 2022, at the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta, GA.(Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GA - JULY 19: Mississippi State Bulldogs Head Coach Mike Leach addresses the media during the SEC Football Kickoff Media Days on July 19, 2022, at the College Football Hall of Fame in Atlanta, GA.(Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

TCU will honor late Mississippi State head football coach Mike Leach with decals on their helmets during the College Football Playoff semifinal against Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl on Saturday.

According to ESPN's Dave Wilson, TCU head coach Sonny Dykes announced that his Horned Frogs players will have pirate flag decals on their helmets due to Leach's love for pirate history.

A few other teams have also worn decals in honor of Leach, including one of the schools at which he formerly coached in Texas Tech, which utilized the pirate flag idea as well.

Regarding the decision to honor Leach in that way, Dykes said the following:

"I think that's going to be a big part of my feelings pregame tomorrow—just the impact Mike had on my life and really college football in general. I'm sure there'll be a little bit of shoutout to Coach Leach before I take the field, just what he meant to me personally in my life.'

'I certainly wouldn't be here without his guidance or mentorship and the huge impact he had on my life."

Leach died on Dec. 12 after being hospitalized with a heart condition while in preparation for Mississippi State's ReliaQuest Bowl game against Illinois on Jan. 2.

Both Dykes and Leach were assistant coaches at Kentucky in 1997, and Dykes later served as an assistant under Leach from 2000 to 2006 when Leach was the head coach at Texas Tech.

That stint helped launch Dykes' head coaching career, as he went on to coach Louisiana Tech, California and SMU. Dykes is in the midst of his first season at TCU, and he has led them to a 12-1 record and the school's first CFP berth.

At the time of his death, Leach was in the midst of his third season as the head coach at Mississippi State and had led the Bulldogs to an 8-4 record this season.

All told, Leach went 158-107 in 21 seasons as the head coach at Texas Tech, Washington State and Mississippi State.

TCU's Sonny Dykes Shades SEC's Non-Conference Schedule: We Won't 'Catch The Citadel'

Dec 29, 2022
FORT WORTH, TX - NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Sonny Dykes of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts as TCU takes on the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
FORT WORTH, TX - NOVEMBER 26: Head coach Sonny Dykes of the TCU Horned Frogs reacts as TCU takes on the Iowa State Cyclones during the first half at Amon G. Carter Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

TCU head coach Sonny Dykes took square aim at the scheduling structure for many SEC programs when he discussed the Horned Frogs' 2022 slate.

"We don't have the good fortune to play an out-of-conference game like the the SEC does in Week 10 or Week 11," he told reporters. "You're not going to catch The Citadel in Week 10. We caught Texas."

Drawing attention to his team's non-conference slate may not be an advisable approach for Dykes.

TCU opened the season against Colorado, which finished 1-11 and was the worst Power Five program in the country. From there, it played an FCS school, Tarleton State, and an SMU squad that won seven games.

Outside of the Big 12, the Horned Frogs didn't exactly navigate a murderers' row.

To Dykes' point, however, TCU did have to run the gauntlet once Big 12 began. It played and beat five ranked opponents before the conference title game, all without the benefit of a week off. The team's last bye was Sept. 17 on the heels of the 59-17 victory over Tarleton.

Say what you will for Alabama playing Austin Peay on Nov. 19 or LSU lining up UAB on the same date, but there's a clear method to the madness.

Wear and tear is inevitable as the season unfolds, and a team's depth is put to the test. Why not give yourself a straightforward win in mid-November?

It's also tough to argue scheduling an overmatched opponent early in the season is any more or less virtuous than doing it later in the year.

NFL Exec Praises Quentin Johnston: 'Really Impressive … and a Motherf--ker to Tackle'

Dec 26, 2022
ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 3: Quentin Johnston #1 of the TCU Horned Frogs stiff arms Julius Brents #23 of the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half of the Big 12 Football Championship at AT&T Stadium on December 3, 2022 in Arlington, Texas.  (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
ARLINGTON, TX - DECEMBER 3: Quentin Johnston #1 of the TCU Horned Frogs stiff arms Julius Brents #23 of the Kansas State Wildcats in the first half of the Big 12 Football Championship at AT&T Stadium on December 3, 2022 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)

TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston has caught the eye of NFL scouts and executives this season.

"He's huge, big catch radius, he's really fast, really physical," an NFC executive told Albert Breer of The MMQB. "He's like [DeAndre Hopkins], that type of player. He's just really, really impressive. ... And a motherf--ker to tackle."

The one question appears to be whether Johnston has great hands, though Breer noted he's heard they are more "inconsistent than deficient in any way."

The 21-year-old junior has had a solid year for the College Football Playoff-bound Horned Frogs, catching 53 passes for 903 yards and five touchdowns in 12 games. For his college career, he's nabbed 108 receptions for 2,024 yards and 13 touchdowns in 28 total contests.

At 6'4" and 215 pounds, he has the size that teams crave from that position, assuming those are accurate measurements. He seems likely to be a first-round pick, perhaps even a top-10 selection.