NFC

N/A

Tag Type
Slug
nfc
Visible in Content Tool
Off
Visible in Programming Tool
Off
Root
Auto create Channel for this Tag
Off
Parents
Primary Parent

NFL Playoff Picks: Wild Card Round

Jan 9, 2010


Before I give this week's picks, I have to say, I'm pretty satisfied with my preseason predictions. In fact, I actually picked nine of the 12 playoff teams correctly.

In the AFC, I picked five out of the six teams that made it into the playoffs. The one pick I missed was the Bengals; instead, I had the Titans getting in.

In the NFC, I predicted four out the six eventual playoff teams; the two teams I missed were the Vikings and Cowboys. The two teams I misfired with were the Giants and Falcons.

This week's wild-card matchups feature some of the most unique and bizarre scheduling anomalies to ever happen. Only 11 times in the history of the NFL have the same two teams that played in the final week of the season played each other again in the first round of the playoffs.

So, it's rather unprecedented for three of the four games this weekend to be direct rematches from last week . In fact, even that fourth game is a rematch between the Patriots and Ravens from Week Four.

In spite of all the reruns on the wild-card schedule, I think the games are going to play out quite differently than the first installments. 

In Cincinnati, I believe the game against the Jets is going to be much closer than it was when they played in New York in Week 17 .

The Bengals didn't go all-out last time, but I still think the Jets are going to come out ahead, because the only real threat on the Bengals offense is Chad Ochocinco, and Darrelle Revis was able to shut him down.

Plus, Cincinnati has lost three out of their last four games, and their offense has looked bad doing it. If New York can minimize Mark Sanchez's mistakes by running the ball and playing solid defense, they'll get another win against Cincinnati.

In the Cowboys-Eagles matchup, just about everything in the world points to a third strike for Philadelphia. Not only did the Eagles get swept by the Cowboys during the regular season, but their offense was completely out of sync in both games.

Since Philly's defense has been pretty average at best all season long, that doesn't really bode well for them. Basically, they've been winning by scoring almost thirty points a game and getting a couple key plays on defense. Neither one of those things has happened in either game against Dallas this year.

However, the one thing the Eagles do have on their side is history. Andy Reid is 7-0 in the opening round of the playoffs. Plus, as everyone knows, the Cowboys haven't won a playoff game since 1996.

So, I'm following the trends and going with the Eagles in a close game. Admittedly, though, this is by far my shakiest pick of the week.

In New England, I think the Patriots just have a little too much for the Ravens. Baltimore was less than impressive down the stretch, and is one of the weaker teams in the playoffs.

Of course, the big question is how much the loss of Wes Welker will cost the Patriots. I think not having Welker will hurt their chances of getting to the Super Bowl (which weren't too great in the first place), but they have enough weapons on offense to beat the Ravens without him.

Finally, in the Arizona-Green Bay game, I think everybody is putting way too much emphasis on the Packers' blowout of the Cardinals last week.

The truth is that Arizona didn't play several of their key starters, whereas Green Bay still had their starters in well into the third quarter, even though they had a comfortable lead.

Being that the Packers were beating up on the Cardinals' JV team, I just don't buy all the talk of the Arizona players being psychologically damaged by the game.

Everybody is picking the Packers as the "hot" team because they won seven of their last eight games. However when you actually look at who they played, the only good team they beat was Dallas, and that was back when they weren't playing very well.

This is one game I could see going either way, but I like the Cardinals to pull it out at home.

My Picks for the 2010 Wild Card Playoff Games

Sat, Jan. 9
1:30 PM (PST)
2:30 PM (MST)
3:30 PM (CST)
4:30 PM (EST)
Favorite
Underdog
Point Spread
Straight Up
Against the Spread
@Cincinnati 
New York Jets
2.5
New York Jets
New York Jets
Sat, Jan. 9
5:00 PM (PST)
6:00 PM (MST)
7:00 PM (CST)
8:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas
Philadelphia
3.5
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Sun, Jan 10
10:00 AM (PST)
11:00 AM (MST)
12:00 PM (CST)
1:00 PM (EST)
@New England
Baltimore
3.5
New England
New England
Sun, Jan 10
1:40 PM (PST)
2:40 PM (MST)
3:40 PM (CST)
4:40 PM (PST)
@Arizona
Green Bay
PK
Arizona
Arizona

Reflecting on the Green Bay Packers' 2009 Season: Potential Realized

Jan 7, 2010

Looking back on the Green Bay Packers 2009 season, I would call it a season of fulfilled potential. Yearning to bounce back from a 6-10 record in 2008, the Packers seemed to have all their ducks in a row. An excellent draft, outstanding preseason and a supposedly easy schedule over the first half of the season.

I, for one, predicted a 2009 wild-card berth with a record of 10-6 or 11-5, expecting the Packers to be 7-1 or 6-2 at the halfway point, and then struggling with the tougher half of their schedule.

Well, we all know the Packers chose to flip my prediction upside down. I suppose it all makes sense now, taking into account the time needed for the Packers defense to become fully comfortable with their new defensive packages. And I considered that at the time, but the early schedule just looked so EASY. Haha...

But regardless of how they got there, the Packers are 11-5 and in the playoffs. And to think, they are just one final-second play from being 12-4 and having won eight games in a row. A truly remarkable turnaround to their season that all started with that "Come to Jesus" meeting after the Tragedy in Tampa that broke the spirit of even the most die hard Packer fans (like this writer).

In the weeks prior to the Tampa game, I had written about what I perceived as Mike McCarthy's lack of command over his team. There was talk about poor practices, the plethora of penalties, lack of discipline and most importantly, lack of accountability. But nothing changed in Packerland. The Tampa debacle proved that unequivocally.

Former players like Leroy Butler and Gilbert Brown spoke out and were critical of how the team was being coached and handled. Packers president Mark Murphy even went public with harsh comments about how disappointed he was that the Packers were only 4-4.

Fortunately, instead of waiting for McCarthy to act, the players decided to take matters into their own hands. With a brutally honest meeting that singed quite a few eyebrows, the players reclaimed their pride and took their season back.

A few weeks before, Ted Thompson had made two moves that helped facilitate the turnaround. During the bye week, Thompson brought back veteran Mark Tauscher. Nobody was sure how much he would be able to contribute on the field, but even if his injury lingered, "Tausch" would be a great presence in the locker room.

Ten days later, Deshawn Wynn was placed on IR and Thompson signed Ahman Green. Why Ahman Green?, so many people asked (this writer included). Why bypass Kregg Lumpkin on the practice squad to bring in this aging veteran that has been so hobbled by serious injuries?

What did he have left? The answer of course, is "just enough." But more importantly, with the way he carries himself and his work ethic, "Batman" has the utmost respect of the Packer players.

So when the Tragedy in Tampa went down, I believe that having these two warriors   on the team and in the locker room contributed mightily to the players deciding to put a stop to the poor play and under-achieving. They were two respected players that just wouldn't stand for embarrassing performances.

With red-hot Dallas as the next opponent, things did not look promising for the Packers, even playing at home. It would take a complete and utter all-out performance to beat the streaking Cowboys. Dom Capers recognized this, and realized the defense would have to set the tone in this game.

He unleashed the lions and went after the Boys with aggression. The result was 5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and an interception by Charles Woodson that would be the dagger right through the star on the Dallas Cowboys Helmets, as eloquently stated by Wayne Larrivee in what I think is the top announcer moment of the year. Listen to it here (personally, I never get tired of it).

The season was reborn. The offensive line stabilized with Tauscher back, Clifton healthy again, and Scott Wells bringing his unappreciated talents back to the OL. And let me say right here, I was one of those people who did not think all that highly of Scott Wells. Perhaps I drank the "Jason Spitz is bigger and meaner and better than Wells" Kool-Aid.

But watching Wells more closely, I have come to appreciate his smarts out on the field. Wells will point out blocking assignments if he feels a potential blitz coming and there has undoubtedly been less confusion on the line as the season has progressed.

On the defensive side, Dom Capers gave more and more responsibility to Clay Matthews and he soaked it up like a roll of Bounty paper towels, finishing the season with 10 sacks. With Al Harris out, Capers blitzed Charles Woodson less and instead started using him to personally shut down opponents' best receivers.

Brad Jones filled in for the injured Aaron Kampman and did not look like a seventh round draft pick. Truth be told, he has probably played as well as Kampman was playing in that position.

The Packers were rolling when they traveled to Pittsburgh to meet the World Champion Steelers. I believe this was the second-most significant game of the Packers season (after the Dallas game). Despite a heart-breaking loss, I think the Packers proved to themselves that they were a resilient team that never quits and are capable of beating anyone.

I firmly believe losing certain games in certain ways to certain opponents can be as much of a confidence boost as a big win. I'm convinced the Packers came out of that game with some swagger, a chip on their shoulder and a new resolve to always play to their potential.

And I think that's what we've seen. A season of fulfilled potential.  Let the playoffs begin!

You can find more of Jersey Al Bracco’s articles on several sports web sites: Jersey Al’s Blog , Packer Chatters , Packers Lounge , NFL Touchdown , and, of course, Bleacher Report . Jersey Al is the Green Bay Packers Draft Correspondent for Drafttek.com.

You can also follow Jersey Al on Facebook and Twitter .

Message To Ken Whisenhunt: Packers Understand "You Play To Win The Game"

Jan 6, 2010

When the Green Bay Packers defeated the Arizona Cardinals 33-7 last Sunday, most spectators knew the score was more indicative of Packers head coach Mike McCarthy having a different philosophy than Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt. 

By kickoff, both teams had wrapped up their spots in the playoffs and, regardless of the Eagles/Cowboys game, were on a crash course to meet again in the first round of the playoffs.

McCarthy chose to play the game as usual and kept his team in rhythm by playing his starters the majority of the game, while Whisenhunt chose to rest his starters and keep them fresh for the upcoming playoff match up. 

First, let’s break down both philosophies to try and understand why both coaches decided to do:

For Whisenhunt, pitting a 38-year-old quarterback against one of the most feared pass rushers in the NFC from the blind side in rookie Clay Matthews, did not seem like the best fit.  Thus, Kurt Warner ended up playing just two series.  Outside of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, the Cardinals used backups for the majority of the game.

With such a veteran team, there was little to gain by playing their starters at home against a team they were going to see again next week.  They had won three of their last five games, with the last two coming against the worst teams in the league in the Lions and Rams, so it’s not as if another week of rest was going to kill them. 

Coming into the playoffs healthy is important after all, and Whisenhunt seemed to think resting his players was the right thing to do.

In McCarthy’s case, he was dealing with one of the hottest win streaks in the NFL, not to mention one of the youngest teams in the league.  Winners of six of seven heading into the game, McCarthy thought it wise to keep the Pack rolling by playing them the majority of the game to get them ready for the playoffs.

“We wanted to come out here to win the game, keep our razor sharp and gain some momentum going into the playoffs,” McCarthy said. “It didn’t matter who we were playing. I understand Arizona had a different agenda...we like the way we played the last eight weeks and it was very important for us to maximize this opportunity.”

Both strategies have their pros and cons, but there is no clear-cut way to deal with Week 17 when your team has clinched a playoff spot and can not move up or down. 

Apparently everyone understands this except Whisenhunt, who chastised McCarthy and the Packers for running up the score and focusing on stats instead of preparing the team for the playoff game.

“They had their plan,” Whisenhunt said. “I guess they felt good about what they were doing.”

Yes, coach Whisenhunt.  The Packers sure did feel good about what they were doing by keeping the offense clicking, the defense fresh, and giving the special teams unit repetitions that they have needed the whole year.

In the NFL, there are two reasons for teams to play for victories:

1) To move up in the standings and better their chances of making the postseason.

2) To gain momentum and have a better overall feeling of where your team stands.

For 16 weeks, the Packers and Cardinals used both as reasons they played to win.  The first is obvious, as every team’s goal is to make the playoffs by season’s end.  The second is not so clear cut because teams usually don't think about the momentum they have as the season goes along. 

But when it comes to the playoffs, peaking at the right time can mean the difference between a first round bye (San Diego Chargers) and missing the playoffs altogether (Denver Broncos).

Whisenhunt also called out McCarthy for keeping his franchise quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, in the game too long, in what he called “a meaningless game.”

“It’s something you would feel sick about had (Fitzgerald) gotten injured at the end, but I have no doubt in my mind that’s what Green Bay was trying to do with Aaron Rodgers (on Sunday) as far as the passing statistics, trying to get those things,” Whisenhunt said. “That’s part of it.”

So let me get this straight, coach.  Aaron Rodgers playing three quarters in a game in which the Packers needed to claim the No. 5 seed was all about stats, but your All-Pro wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald catching a touchdown with just under three minutes left in a 33-point rout was something else?

Please.

In fact, your other Pro Bowl wide receiver Anquan Boldin seemed to be playing just about every snap into the third quarter before he left with an ankle injury.  With a knee injury to accompany the ankle, Boldin’s status is now in doubt for the Wild Card.  Same for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who injured his left knee tackling Jermichael Finley.

Ryan Pickett, Brandon Chillar, and special teams ace Derrick Martin were all inactive for the game Sunday, despite probably being able to play had it been a playoff game.  If McCarthy was looking to run up the score, wouldn’t he have played his best run-stopper, his “X-factor” on defense, and best special teamer?

Anyone who believes the Packers were trying to run up the score against the Cardinals is just foolish.  Whisenhunt also complained about McCarthy game planning for the teams’ match-up in Week 3 of the Preseason. 

The Packers led that game 38-10 at the half, in what is known around the league as the most important exhibition game for starters.  Don’t forget about the youth of the Packers and McCarthy trying to get his young (and talented) players more reps before the actual season began.

A win is a win and McCarthy understands that.  Instead of rolling into the playoffs having not played a game in two weeks, he kept his team focused and on the same schedule that won them seven of the last eight games. 

Forget about McCarthy showing his hand and tendencies by playing his starters.  If Whisenhunt and the Cardinals don’t have enough film on the Packers already, they certainly don't stand a chance when they clash this Saturday.

If the Cardinals plan to use McCarthy's alleged unsportsmanlike game calling last week as fuel for their first round matchup, so be it. 

After Whisenhunt’s comments, the Packers just got theirs.

Mike Shanahan Signs on with the Washington Redskins: So, What Now?

Jan 5, 2010

Mike Shanahan has reportedly accepted the Washington Redskins' offer to become their next head coach, agreeing to a five-year deal worth $7 million annually. 

So, what now? Who goes? Who stays? More importantly, what will happen to embattled quarterback Jason Campbell? 

Even money says that Campbell is out. Shanahan will want to bring in a new guy to mold, and Campbell has been far too ineffective to justify giving him a new contract. Besides, the kid could probably use a change of scenery.

It's possible that the Skins will target either Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy in this year's draft as either would fit the prototype that Shanahan loves.  Bradford's shoulder is a concern, but in Shanahan's system, the quarterback is protected by two elements: a good offensive line and a solid running game. 

As long as whomever he chooses can make that short to intermediate throw that is so key in a Shanahan run offense, then he should be fine. 

The offensive line is another animal altogether.

Plagued by injuries and poor play, the line could definitely use some retooling. I'm not sure where you would need to start to get things going in the right direction, but this is for sure: they need a better offseason training regimen. 

The line was piecemeal throughout the season, and that meant that guys never really gelled. 

If the line is going to get better, it will start with getting guys healthy first and figuring out who's dispensable second. 

The run game should be fine—for now.

Clinton Portis is due a large sum of money this season, and he fits the running style that his new coach likes. Portis played for Shanahan in Denver and should have no trouble picking up any of the old schemes. 

Portis is closer to the end of his career than the beginning, and the Skins could be looking to find a relative steal in the draft without having to pay a pretty penny in free agency.

That said, if he's looking to bring back some old blood, Mike Bell of the Saints will be a free agent at the end of the season, and he ran the ball well for Shanahan in 2006 as a Bronco. 

The arrival of Shanahan in the NFC should be interesting as the East is loaded with teams that all have Super Bowl aspirations and the players in place to get them there. However, the Skins have a long way to go to get where their new coach is likely to want them to be, and that means 2010 will be as much of a crap shoot as 2009. 

Even so, it will still likely bring a more focused and disciplined squad than this season did. By virtue of subtraction, the Skins already look like a much better team. Zorn was simply not the right guy for the job and that showed in the overall effort, or lack thereof, of his team. 

I expect to see a bit of housecleaning in Washington once Mike Shanahan is officially introduced, and that will be a very good thing.

NFL Playoffs Scenarios: How Week 17 Played Out Minute-By-Minute

Jan 3, 2010

With NFC seedings up for grab and seven AFC teams still mathematically in with a chance of securing a playoff spot, there was a lot to play for on the final Sunday of the regular season.

Of the 16 games scheduled for Sunday, nine had meaning for at least one of the teams involved. Four games were vital for both parties.

There were four meaningful 1 p.m. games—three in the AFC and one in the NFC.

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans both knew they needed to win their respective games to have any shot at one of the two remaining AFC Wild Card spots, while the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins were battling each other in Florida with the loser knowing they would definitely be eliminated with a loss.

In the NFC, the Vikings could clinch the second seed with a win against the Giants.

In the late starts, the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys battled for the NFC East crown while the Baltimore Ravens and New York Jets knew they would be in with a win.

Here are the key moments of Week 17 as the day unfolded.

1:26 p.m. While it is not a score update, the New England Patriots' Wes Welker has been carried off the field with an injury. With a playoff spot already set in stone, this is a huge blow for the Pats. Fans will no doubt ask why the Patriots starters were in the lineup.

2:15 p.m. Cleveland extends their lead to 13-3 against the Jaguars on Josh Cribbs' 14-yard touchdown run. The TD gives them a two-score advantage over the Jaguars who needed not only a win but for four other teams (Pittsburgh and Houston in the 1 p.m. games, and Denver and Baltimore at 4:15 p.m.) to lose too.

To make the highly improbable almost impossible, Pittsburgh is winning 17-10 and Houston leads 14-10.

2:23 p.m. Minnesota takes a commanding 31-0 lead against the hapless Giants on Brett Favre's third touchdown pass of the day, all but securing their second seed in the NFC.

2:54 p.m. New England's Darius Butler returns an interception for a touchdown, snapping a 13-13 tie and putting the Texans on the brink of elimination. A Houston loss would benefit the winner of the Miami-Pittsburgh showdown.

3:04 p.m. Pittsburgh effectively puts Miami out of contention with a Heath Miller touchdown to make it 24-10. With Houston losing 27-13, the Steelers would still need the Jets or Ravens to lose in the evening games. Pittsburgh has lost five games after leading in the fourth quarter...will they shut the door on the Dolphins?

3:30 p.m . Houston shows signs of life with a touchdown with just under 10 minutes to play in their final regular season game. Even if the Texans win or tie, Pittsburgh could still get into the playoffs with losses from the Jets, Ravens, and Broncos.

3:45 p.m. The Miami Dolphins make things uncomfortable for the Steelers with Davone Bess' touchdown to move within a field goal. That's 14 points in the last 2:47 for the Dolphins who are fighting with all their heart to keep their season alive.

3:50 p.m. With 6:56 remaining in the game, the Dolphins force a fumble out of Ben Roethlisburger to get the ball on the Pittsburgh 13-yard line. On 2nd-and-13 the Dolphins' Thigpen throws an interception at the Steelers' two-yard-line.


3:53 p.m. Arian Foster rushes for his second touchdown in less than three minutes to give the Texans a remarkable 34-27 lead over the Patriots. A Houston win would cut the Steelers' chances even further regardless of whether they beat Miami.

3:59 p.m. The Vikings beat the Giants 44-7, confirming their second seed.

4:06 p.m. The Texans beat New England to keep their hopes alive. Tom Brady sat on the bench during the Patriots' final, potentially game-tying drive. Houston will anxiously await the Jets, Ravens, and Broncos games starting in about 10 minutes to see if they can get the three losses they need.

4:07 p.m. Cleveland beats Jacksonville 23-17, eliminating the Jaguars from playoff contention.

4:11 p.m. Miami's third-string quarterback throws a season-ending interception with 26 seconds remaining. Pittsburgh is still hoping for a miracle, but the Dolphins fall to 7-9 and finish their season with a defeat.

4:15 p.m. Four more key games with playoff implications kick off around the league. Philadelphia gets under way against the Cowboys knowing a win would give them the NFC East title and a first-round bye. The Cowboys however would win the division if they won.

Arizona knows they won't be playing for a first-round bye because of Minnesota's victory earlier today, but opponents Green Bay are playing for either the fifth or sixth seeding.

In the AFC, the Ravens are in the playoffs if they beat Oakland, while Denver knows they have a range options to make the playoffs even if they lose to Kansas City. Their chances have been reduced with Houston's win against the Patriots.


4:48 p.m. Aaron Rodgers completes a 51-yard pass to Jordy Nelson and then rushes up the middle for a touchdown to give the Packers an early 14-0 lead against the NFC West champs.

5:15 p.m . Tony Romo throws a strike to Patrick Crayton to give the Cowboys a 14-0 lead and move them one step closer to the NFC East title. Meanwhile the Broncos' Knowshon Moreno just ran the ball home from the one-yard line to tie the game against Kansas City at 7-7.

5:18 p.m. Baltimore's Willis McGahee runs 77 yards for a touchdown to give the Ravens a 14-3 lead against the Raiders. Remember, the Ravens are in with a win. The Texans will need both Denver and the Jets to lose if Baltimore is victorious.

5:30 p.m. With 47 seconds left in the first half, Oakland puts seven points on the board with a Zach Miller TD catch to cut Baltimore's lead to 14-10. Oakland can play spoilers with a win.

5:41 p.m. As the 4:15 p.m. games all reach halftime, Green Bay has a commanding 26-0 lead over Arizona and Dallas leads 17-0 over Philadelphia. Baltimore misses a field goal as time expires but finishes the half up 14-10, while Kansas City and Denver are tied 10-10.

Pittsburgh and Houston have the most invested in the Raiders-Ravens game, with both teams hoping Oakland can come from behind to keep their seasons alive.

Elsewhere, If Denver wins, their best chance at making the playoffs, as it stands right now, would come if the Jets lost. If they lost and Baltimore wins, they would be eliminated.

6:10 p.m. The Broncos knot things up at 17-17 just a few moments after Jamaal Charles rushed for a 25-yard touchdown to give the Chiefs a 17-10 advantage. Remember the Broncos need to beat the Chiefs and see either the Ravens or Jets lose.

6:21 p.m. Dallas all but assures themselves of the NFC East by taking a 24-0 third-quarter lead and Kansas City scores 10 points in 13 seconds on a field goal and interception returned for a TD to go ahead 27-17. Denver's season hangs by a thread.

6:44 p.m. Pittsburgh is 10 minutes away from being officially eliminated from the playoff chase. Baltimore—who clinches with a win—has an eight-point lead and they have just recovered a fumble. Pittsburgh is getting help from Kansas City, but it will all be for naught if Baltimore hangs on.

As things stand, the Houston Texans will go to the playoffs if the Jets lose to the Bengals in a few hours. The Jets, of course, can clinch with a victory.

6:42 p.m . Denver's Kyle Orton is picked off by Chiefs' linebacker Derrick Johnson who takes it to the house for six. KC is up 37-24 and Denver is missing out right now.

7:01p.m. Green Bay secures the fifth seed with a 33-7 victory over Arizona who could not finish better than No. 3 in the NFC.

7:07 p.m. Baltimore beats Oakland 21-13 to set up a first round playoff trip to Tom Brady's New England Patriots.

The victory officially eliminates the Steelers from the playoff race, as they needed Baltimore, Denver, and the New York Jets to lose.

7:22 p.m. Denver is done for the year with a 44-24 defeat to the Chiefs. It was actually over about eight minutes ago when Orton was intercepted in the end zone with about three minutes remaining.

The final playoff spot will either go to the New York Jets, who face the Bengals at 8:20pm, or the Houston Texans, should the Jets lose.

8:35 p.m. New York strikes first with Thomas Jones' one-yard TD run. 7-0 Jets in a 'win-or-go-home' contest.

9:35 p.m. The Jets extend their lead to 17-0 on a Brad Smith touchdown run that went for 32. Ochocinco and the Bengals are barely in the game and the Jets look good for a rematch with Cincy in Wild Card Week.

9:58 p.m. Ten more Jets points in the last seven minutes has killed this game which is awful news for Texans fans who needed New York to lose to keep their season alive for one more week. Mark Sanchez threw to Jerricho Cotchery for a touchdown and Jay Feely kicked a field goal as time expired after an interception.

11:22 p.m. The Jets make it official with a commanding 37-0 demolition of the Bengals—the same team they will face in the first round of the playoffs next week.

The Final Word

In the NFC, New Orleans (13-3) and Minnesota (12-4) receive first-round byes, with Dallas (11-5) claiming the No. 3 seed and Arizona (10-6) ranked fourth. Green Bay and Philadelphia are the Wild Card teams.

Green Bay will face Arizona in the playoffs while the Eagles will travel to Dallas for a Week 17 rematch.

In the AFC, Indianapolis (14-2) and San Diego (13-3) have an extra week free with Cincinnati (10-5) and New England (10-6) ranked third and fourth. The New York Jets (11-5) will join the Baltimore Ravens in the playoffs.

New England will host Baltimore on Sunday on CBS, while the Jets will travel to Cincinnati on Saturday on NBC.

NFL Week 17: NFC Picks

Jan 1, 2010

We're down to Week 17 and there are several playoff scenarios remaining to be sorted out in each conference during the final games. 

Unlike previous weeks ,  I'm going to do two separate previews, so that I can properly sort out the key games in each conference and how they effect the playoffs.

Read my AFC picks here.

The NFC Playoff Picture

In the NFC, things are settled as to which teams are in, but there is still a pretty good amount of uncertainty about which teams will end up seeded where. 
Everything comes down to three games, which will decide the second through sixth seeds, with New Orleans having clinched the home-field advantage already. In addition, regardless of what happens, Green Bay will end up with the No. 5 seed.
The easiest of the NFL scenarios also involves what might potentially be the best game of the season featuring the Philadelphia Eagles against the Dallas Cowboys, who are arguably the two best teams in the NFC right now.
It's not very complicated math here; the winner is the NFC East champion, the loser ends up the No. 6 seed. Additionally, the Eagles will be the No. 2 seed if they win, while the Cowboys could end up anywhere from the No. 2 to No. 4 spot if they win, depending on whether the Vikings and Cardinals win their respective games. 

Most likely, a Dallas win means a rematch in the first round of the playoffs
This game can easily go either way and I could see either team winning. Having said that, I'm picking the Eagles here. Dallas beat them the first time in Week Nine, but it was one of the worst games for the Eagles offense and they were still adjusting to being without Brian Westbrook
Not only is Westbrook back, but they have had time to adjust to life without him and his presence is an asset rather than a necessity at this point. Philadelphia has scored 31 points a game during their six-game win streak, which began two weeks after that first game.
There are, however, two things that could point to trouble for the Eagles. 
One is their defense's propensity to forget about tackling in favor of going for the big play. While this has resulted in a fair amount of turnovers during the season, it has also turned what should be a routine play into a big play for the other team many times.
Another potential problem for the Eagles is the loss of starting center Jamaal Jackson for the season last week against Denver. This could potentially be a big loss, since the Cowboys had four sacks last time they played.
The other big game in the NFC involves the Arizona Cardinals vs. the Green Bay Packers in Arizona. 
For the Cardinals winning this game could put them into position to be the No. 2 seed (if the Vikings and Eagles both lose)  or the No. 3 seed (if the Eagles win and Vikings lose). 
If the Packers should win, more than likely the Cards and Pack will play again in the first round of the playoffs. However, if the Eagles and Giants also win, they would instead play the Vikings for the third time this season. 
Obviously, another rematch against Brett Favre's new team would be huge, but in order for that to happen the New York Giants would have to upset the Minnesota Vikings. 

With the way the Vikings have played the past month, that's not out of the realm of possibility. In fact, if the Giants weren't such a mess right now, I would pick them to beat the Vikings.

I still wouldn't be surprised if New York did win, but they have been less than impressive lately. You just never know which team is going to show up anymore.

Last week they couldn't even keep the game competitive against the Carolina Panthers when they needed a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. I don't have a lot of faith that things are going to go much different this week.
Other Games of Interest
Some other games have the possibility to be interesting games even though they don't actually effect the playoff situation. 
New Orleans plays Carolina in a game that essentially means nothing, but could have some significance in light of the fact that the Saints have lost two straight games.
There is some speculation that they will rest their starters, but I expect them to play all out to try to go into the playoffs on a positive note. 

After losing to Tampa Bay last week, I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them lose, however I think the difference in the game will be the loss of Steve Smith for the Panthers last week.

The other game that has some interest in spite of not involving the playoffs is the Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The reason it is relevant is because the Falcons will be trying to finish with a winning record in consecutive seasons for the first time in franchise history. Luckily for them, they are playing the Buccaneers and should be able to pull it off.
Last week, I ended up with a 9-7 record straight up and only 5-11 against the spread. Which leaves me with a season record of 147-90 straight up and 118-118-3 against the spread.

My Picks for the 2009 Week Seventeen NFC Games

Click edit above to add content to this empty capsule.
Sun, Jan 3
10:00 AM (PST)
11:00 AM (MST)
12:00 PM (CST)
1:00 PM (EST)
Favorite
Underdog
Point Spread
Straight Up
Against the Spread
3.0
Chicago
Chicago
@St. Louis
7.0
San Francisco
St. Louis
@Minnesota
New York Giants
9.0
New York Giants
New York Giants
Atlanta
@Tampa Bay
2.5
Atlanta
Atlanta
@Carolina
New Orleans
7.5
New Orleans
Carolina
Sun, Jan 3
1:00 PM (PST)
2:00 PM (MST)
3:00 PM (CST)
4:00 PM (EST)
@Dallas
Philadelphia
3.0
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
@Arizona
Green Bay
3.5
Arizona
Green Bay
4.0
San Diego
San Diego
4.0
Tennessee
Tennessee

NFC Week 17 Matchups and Predictions

Dec 30, 2009

The 2009 NFL regular season comes to a close this week and while we know the six teams from the NFC that will be in the postseason, only one team; New Orleans knows exactly where they will be seeded.

With Minnesota losing to Chicago on Monday night 36-30 in overtime, the 13-2 Saints locked up the No. 1 seed despite the fact that they have lost their last two games.

Philadelphia ran their winning streak to six with a 30-27 win over Denver and is currently tied with the Vikings at 11-4. By virtue of the conference record tie breaker, if they beat Dallas on Sunday they would win the NFC East and be the No. 2 seed.

If the Eagles lose and Minnesota beats the New York Giants then the Vikings would get the first round bye. If they both lose and Arizona beats Green Bay, then the Cardinals would be number two.

If Minnesota and Arizona lose, and the Cowboys win then they would be the division champion and get the two seed.

Simply tune into Fox at 4:15 P.M. for the Eagles-Cowboys showdown to watch how it all plays out.

Moving on to the final week, here is a review of the three games in the NFC that still have any playoff implications; Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings, and Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals.


Philadelphia Eagles
at Dallas Cowboys  (-3 )  Current Over/Under 47.5

Even though both of these teams already clinched a playoff berth, there is a ton riding on this game. If Dallas wins they take the NFC East division title and will host a wild card round game next week. If both Minnesota and Arizona lose they would be the No. 2 seed and have a first round bye.

If Philadelphia wins they claim the top spot in the East, but more importantly they would be the No. 2 seed and get the first round bye.

For the Cowboys to win they need to establish the run and control the tempo of the game. They would much rather grind it out than get involved in a shootout. For the Eagles, it will come down to their ability to create big plays down field to try and jump on Dallas early forcing them to play from behind.

With WR Jeremy Maclin and RB Brian Westbrook both healthy and WR’s DeSean Jackson and Jason Avant along with TE Brent Celek all playing at a high level, there are just too many weapons for the Cowboys defense to account for. I’m going with the Eagles and the OVER.


New York Giants
at Minnesota Vikings  (-8.5 )  Current Over/Under 48

It hard to figure out what happened to New York this season but the end result has not been good. They started out winning their first five games, but lost their next four. Since then they have gone 3-3, looking unbeatable one week, and then looking absolutely horrible the next. It all came to an end last week when they were trounced by Carolina 41-9, ending any chance at making the playoffs.

Minnesota has become a head scratcher lately as well. They reeled off their first six in a row and at 10-1 were neck and neck with Saints for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Since then they have lost three out of their last four and are no longer in control of even the No. 2 spot.

Their problems have been a little easier to figure out; they are a much better team at home, as all three losses were on the road. Given the fact they find themselves in a must win situation to try and get some momentum back for the postseason and they are playing at home against a team that appears to have packed it in for the season, this pick becomes rather easy. The Vikings and the OVER.


Green Bay Packers
at Arizona Cardinals  (-3 )    Current Over/Under 44

Based on how they end up being seeded, it is very likely that these two teams will be playing each other again next week in a wild card playoff. With a win, the Cardinals still have an outside chance of ending up the No. 2 seed so this game may still have some meaning if the Vikings lose earlier in the day.

As for Green Bay, winning this game does nothing to really help their playoff position, so if it appears that they may play each other again in six or seven days, they will most likely go with a very vanilla game plan and save the actual one for the following week.

At the very least I would expect them to sit several of their key starters to give them an extra week’s rest. Since we will not know who will be playing in this game until right before kickoff, I’ll defer to the home team. Give me the Cardinals and the UNDER.

Green Bay Packers' 2009 Turning Point Was a "Come to Jesus" Moment

Dec 28, 2009

It was Monday, Nov. 9 at 2:25 PM. The "Tragedy in Tampa" had occurred less than 24 hours ago. The Packers offense had just finished watching the film of that very ugly game. More sacks. More penalties. More of the poor and inconsistent play that had plagued them all season. Everyone was disgusted. Veteran players stood up individually and spoke to the entire team, including coaches.

Donald Driver, Aaron Rodgers, Mark Tauscher, and others had their say. Donald Driver had some of the more powerful words: "If we don't win - and I mean now - they are going to fire all of our (butts) at the end of the season," Driver said. "I'm serious."

Daryn Colledge called it a "Come to Jesus" meeting. Whatever it was called at the time, you can now call it the "Turning Point."

As Greg Bedard of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel wrote at the time, "If the foundering Green Bay Packers go on a long-shot run to the playoffs in the second half of the season, the record will show the resurrection started at approximately 2:25 p.m. Monday."  How prescient those words were.

The Green Bay Packers have spoken to us through their play in the last few games. Against Pittsburgh, they showed us that they have enough talent to play with any team. Going into Pittsburgh in December to play a wounded and desperate Steelers team surely would not end well.

And while in one way it didn't, I think the fact that Pittsburgh needed every last second and a moment of pass-completion perfection to pull out a win, actually empowered the Packers and improved their confidence as a team. Sure it was heartbreaking to lose like that, but knowing how hard the Super Bowl champions had to fight to beat them, the Packers could only be impressed with their progress as a team. If I were a Packers player, that's how I would have felt.

The Steelers loss also put the onus on the Packers to win the next game. If they were really serious about making the playoffs (I know that sounds silly, but look at the Giants yesterday), they would need to come out and beat an inferior opponent. The Packers spoke to us in this game with their relentlessness, avoiding the poor third-quarter play they have exhibited in recent games.

More specifically, in their last seven games (starting with the Tampa debacle), the Packers had been shut out in six of those third quarters. Allowing teams to stay close is never a good idea, even though they prevailed in five of those games.

But against Seattle, the Packers did what they could have been expected to do. They dominated an inferior opponent from start to finish. The Packer offense scored at least 10 points in every quarter, quickly fixed a few rough spots at the beginning of the game, protected Rodgers, and only committed three penalties.

The Packers defense did yield almost 300 yards to the Seahawks, but as I wrote in the preseason, this is a defense that will live and die by the big play/turnover. Zero turnovers and a ton of yardage relinquished to the Steelers equated to a heartbreaking loss. Four turnovers and an inferior opponent like the Seahawks equated to a blowout, despite giving up almost 300 net yards.

From the rubble of that horrible loss in Tampa, the Packers rose up, dusted themselves off and found a new focus and new reason for being—a desperation drive to make the playoffs. I have talked with many people who feel that football players don't need any external motivation; because they are pros, they should be able to motivate themselves. I've never subscribed to that theory, especially in football.

Seems to me that a little "Come to Jesus" kick in the ass was just what the Packers needed.

---------------------

You can find more of Jersey Al Bracco’s articles on several sports web sites: Jersey Al’s Blog, Packer Chatters, Packers Lounge, NFL Touchdown, and, of course, Bleacher Report. Jersey Al is the Green Bay Packers Draft Correspondent for Drafttek.com.

You can also follow Jersey Al on Facebook and Twitter.

NFC Wildcard Update: Packers Still Control Their Own Destiny

Dec 23, 2009

After one of the more heart-breaking regular season losses for the Packers this decade, the NFC Wild Card picture became a tad bit fuzzier as the Cowboys defeated the Saints and the Giants took care of business on Monday night against the Redskins.

While the Packers still control their own destiny and can secure a playoff spot by winning their last two games against NFC West foes Seattle and Arizona, here's a look at what the Packers are hoping will happen over the course of the next two weeks to ensure they play past the first weekend of January.

The Saints need just one more win to clinch the first overall seed in the NFC and should get it as they host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday and then travel to Carolina to close out the season. Should they beat Tampa Bay, they would be able to rest their starters in Week 17 with no undefeated season on the line.

The Saints do not affect the Packers all that much and it's all but ensured they will gain the top seed.

With two losses in the last three weeks on the road, the Minnesota Vikings are hoping they can hang on to the second seed in the NFC in order to pick up a bye and avoid going on the road until the NFC Championship game. 

The road to get there will not be an easy one as the Vikings travel to Chicago to take on the in-division rival Bears, and then match up against the Giants who will, more than likely, be playing for something.

Packers fans should cheer for the Bears next week so the Eagles can challenge the Vikings for that first round bye and have something to play for in Week 17 against the Cowboys. Philadelphia hosts Denver this weekend with the chance to tie the Vikings for the number two seed, if the Vikings were to lose.

Tie-breaking procedures say that the Eagles would jump the Vikings based on the third tiebreaker of record vs. common opponents. The Eagles would be 5-0 while the Vikings (assuming they lost to the Bears) would be 2-2 with the Giants in Week 17.

Then comes the Arizona Cardinals, who sit at 9-5 and are all but set on where they will land in the playoffs. Barring a major collapse from both the Vikings and Eagles, the Cardinals will not have a first round bye. They host the St. Louis Rams in Week 16 and then stay at home to battle the Packers to finish the season.

The interesting note is that in Week 17, the Packers and Cardinals will kick off at 3:15 CST while the Eagles and Vikings play at noon. So the Cardinals will know if they have anything to play for when they hit the field in Arizona in Week 17. Once again, Packers fans should cheer for the Eagles to win out so that the Cardinals are entrenched in the fourth spot with nothing to play for when they take on the Packers.

The Eagles winning next week also means the Vikings will have to play to win, regardless, in Week 17 when they take on the Giants. This also helps the Packers because the Giants have the tiebreaker over them due to the common opponent tiebreaker.

One team the Packers need to just stay even with are the Cowboys, who the Packers defeated back in Week Nine. Dallas goes to Washington this weekend before closing out the season at home against the Eagles. Once again, if the Eagles can beat the Broncos in Week 16 they will have something to play for against Dallas, knowing a first round bye could be on the line.

Simply put, the Packers need to stay even with the Cowboys or top the Giants in the standings to get in. A win this weekend combined with a Cowboys OR Giants loss would ensure the Packers a playoff spot. Their Week 17 game against the Cardinals being played late is huge for the Packers, because they will know what they have to do in order to either make the playoffs or move up to the fifth seed.

The way things are shaping up (and are sure to be completely jumbled this time next week), the Packers should be playing a 10-5 Cardinals team that can not catch the Eagles in the standings for third place. Unless Minnesota loses their last two games, Arizona can't catch them either.

For the sake of their fans' brains, let's hope the Packers win their last two games and make everything a whole lot easier for everyone.

With New Orleans Saints Loss, Minnesota Vikings' Hopes for No. 1 Seed Look Up

Dec 20, 2009

Many thought that the Saints had virtually locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

Think again.

After the Saints lost to the Cowboys on Saturday night, the Vikings and their fans began to think that the No. 1 seed wasn't completely out of the question.

It isn't.

New Orleans could potentially rest their starters over the next two weeks if they feel they don't need to play them any longer.

This leaves hope that the Saints can lose one of their next two against either the Buccaneers or the Panthers.

Minnesota goes to Carolina on Sunday, travels to the frosty tundra of Chicago, and then faces the New York Giants at the Metrodome. Obviously, I think the Vikings will win all three of those games.

If the Vikings and Saints end up being tied at 14-2, Minnesota will have the top seed in the NFC.

Perhaps the No. 1 seed isn't the most important factor, but it is something that is surprisingly coveted in order to make it to the Super Bowl.

Last year, two No. 1 seeds (Tennessee and New York) both lost in their first games. It's rare to see both No. 1 seeds fall so early in the playoffs. Do not worry. This trend will not continue this year.

Indianapolis will likely not lose to a team like the Broncos or the Bengals in the playoffs. They are just far better.

Minnesota's chances of playing a weaker opponent in the second round would be much improved with the top seed.

No team in the playoffs is weak, but there are significant differences between the skills of, say, the Cardinals and the Packers.

Minnesota is being overlooked this year. People are calling them a "poor road team," which I find to be ridiculous. Losing to last year's Super Bowl team is disappointing?

Come on!

Pittsburgh was playing on top of their game and, at the time, had Troy Polamalu in the lineup. When he is not in, Pittsburgh loses. When he is in, Pittsburgh wins. Simple as can be.

Arizona was fairly dominant over the Vikings. Did they crush us? Not at all. Did they show us the business, so to speak? Yes they did.

Minnesota is NOT a poor road team. Being 4-2 on the road this season is not bad.

If they were 2-4, things would be much different, but they aren't. 4-2 is good, if anything.

It's honestly puzzling to me why the Vikings are being overlooked so often. Have they once showed that they are not as good as they seem? Did the beating of the Bengals not show how good the Vikings are?

After all, Cincinnati did beat Pittsburgh (twice), Green Bay, Baltimore (twice), and lost to the Broncos on one of the luckiest plays in NFL history.

It has been the case for years; Minnesota is put after the teams that they are just as good as, if not better, simply because they don't have success in the playoffs.

If you want to be logical, you can't say that the only reason the Vikings won't be good in the playoffs is because they haven't won a Super Bowl. That just doesn't make sense.

Can Minnesota beat the Saints? That remains to be seen. If they played in a week, Minnesota could definitely beat the Saints.

New Orleans looks to be a better team, but I think some of their weaknesses and flaws were exposed against the Cowboys on Saturday night.

Fully healthy, Minnesota can beat anybody on any given day of the week.

I am praying for the Vikings to get the No. 1 seed. Obviously it will not be easy, but I am used to the Vikings being the underdog, and so are they.

Do not look past the Vikings. They are a force to be reckoned with.