Washington Huskies Basketball

The roller-coaster ride that was the Washington Huskies 2009-10 season started with lofty preseason expectations and ended with a surprise run to the Sweet 16. What happened in between is anyone’s guess.

The Huskies, a pick to contend for the conference crown, started Pac-10 play 1-3 and later went to 3-5. They got back on track and eventually closed the regular season with four consecutive wins, but remained a ‘bubble’ team heading into the conference tournament.

When the calendar hit March, Washington started playing like everyone thought they would back in October. The Huskies won the Pac-10 tourney crown, earned an 11-seed in the big dance and then gained upsets over No. 6 Marquette and No. 3 New Mexico before falling to Final Four-bound West Virginia in the Sweet 16.

Once again, Washington enters the season as a preseason Pac-10 favorite and ranked No. 17 in the Coaches’ Poll, but there is reason to believe this more mature and experienced team will remain in the Top 25. The only starter coach Lorenzo Romar will have to replace is the school’s second all-time leading scorer, Quincy Pondexter.

The starting lineup will revolve around point guard Isaiah Thomas and small forward Justin Holiday. Thomas has scored 1,134 points in his first two seasons, more than any Washington player in program history through two seasons.

After those two, Romar has plenty of options. He can go with three guards by adding Venoy Overton and returning starter Abdul Gaddy to the mix or he can opt for a bigger lineup with 6-9 power forward Matthew Bryan-Amaning, a returning starter, joining 7-foot newcomer, center Aziz N’Diaye, in the frontcourt.

Offseason Changes

Pondexter and his 19.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game are off to the NBA and swingman Elston Turner transferred to Texas A&M while reserve forward Clarence Trent transferred to Division II Seattle University.

In the Sweet 16 against West Virginia, the Huskies led 29-27 at halftime, but in the second half the Mountaineers began to pull away because of their dominant size advantage. Romar knew his team would need help in that regard and that is why he went after N’Diaye, a resident of Dakar, Senegal, who played one year with the College of Southern Idaho. Also, expect 6-6 freshman Terrence Ross, a wing player from Portland, Oregon, to make an immediate impact.

Washington Huskies Basketball Outlook

The Huskies are experienced on the court, but more importantly, experienced with how to deal with high expectations. The loss of Pondexter hurts, but the lack of depth in the frontcourt will hurt more. The strength of this team lies with its guard play and perimeter shooting, so it will fit right at home in the Pac-10.

Washington Huskies College Basketball Odds

The Huskies are listed at 50/1 to win it all. The defending Pac-10 Tournament champions are priced at +250 to win the Pac-10 regular season championship. Those odds make the Huskies the Pac-10 favorite along with Arizona, who is also +250.

Washington Huskies Basketball Schedule

The Washington Huskies open up their season Nov. 13 with an easy tune-ups against McNeese State and Eastern Washington before heading to Hawaii to compete in the prestigious Maui Invitational along with Kentucky, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Connecticut, Wichita State, host Chaminade and Washington’s first-round opponent, Virginia. A lot more will be known about this team after the Invitational.

Washington Huskies College Basketball Predictions and Betting Picks

Last year’s disappointing start in conference play cost Washington a chance at the regular-season title. With that experience behind it, look for Washington to rebound and make a run at the Pac-10 title. Its lack of depth in the frontcourt may not catch up to them in conference play, but it will in out of conference games and in the NCAA Tournament, making a run at a national title seem very unlikely.

The Washington Huskies 2010-2011 season will be kicking off in a couple months at Hec Ed Bank of America.  With Quincy Pondexter’s departure to the NBA, the Huskies will have to focus on filling the void of points Pondexter produced.  Coach Romar has brought in three new guys to help the Dawgs make a run for the Pac-10 title and a ticket to March Madness.

Terrence Ross (Portland, Oregon) 

Ross is a 6’6" guard who can put the ball on the floor who displays great athleticism.  Ross is known as a good shooter who will compete for a lot of playing time this year.

Aziz N’ Diaye (College of Southern Idaho)

Aziz is a legit 7-footer that will cause problems for any opposition penetrating to the hole. Aziz is a transfer from Southern Idaho, who sat out last year due to a torn ACL but is back at 100 percent. Aziz has been known this summer in open gyms as a hard worker who bangs down low and likes contact and a good shot blocker.

Desmond Simmons (Vallejo, California)

Simmons likes to bang down low as an undersized power forward at 6’7.  Simmons doesn’t have the finesse game in the paint, but will do the all the dirty work to make up for it. The Huskies still have the core of their team coming back minus one. 

Sophomore big man Tyreese Breshers announced his retirement from basketball during the summer.  Breshers battled his way through a surgery after High School that nagged on him ever since.  A nice and humble guy, Breshers will still receive his degree from Washington and will still be around the team.

Each Husky will be asked to step up their game this year.  Questions will need to be answered on the court.  Who will step up down low in the paint? Was Abdul Gaddy’s freshman year a fluke?  Will Bryan-Amaning be more consistent?  Here is a rundown on each returning Husky!

Isaiah Thomas

Thomas has yet to disappoint ever since he put on a UW jersey.  Thomas will have big numbers this year.   Thomas is a captain and a team leader who shows it on the court.  The key for Thomas this year will be focusing on his shooting and turnovers.

Most of the turnovers Thomas forced last year were going strong to the rim, which shows the heart in Thomas not backing down to anyone on the court.  Thomas will bring his energy to the court and heart that rubs off on the team and the fans.

Abdul Gaddy

Everyone wants to know how Gaddy will bounce back after a subpar freshman year.  Gaddy has worked all summer long to prove everyone wrong. Gaddy lets the game come to him and doesn’t force anything.  A true point guard who has all the skills to be one of the best point guards in the Pac-10 if not the nation.  It could be the quiet before the storm for Gaddy. 

Gaddy had a quiet year last year, and wasn’t asked to do much. On the ball defense will be another focal point for Gaddy to help the Dawgs out.  Gaddy’s lateral movement will need to improve to stay in front of quicker guards. Gaddy will need to bring a killer instinct to his game as well to bring out the best of him.

Venoy Overton

This will be Overton’s last year! Overton will be asked to bring his lock down defense, which is his trademark on the court. Overton will have to step his game up on the offensive side which he displayed towards the end of last year’s season by being a reliable player to get to the rim.

Overton, who can be wild at times with the ball, will also need to settle down and avoid turnovers.  When calm on the court no player in the country would want to be guarded by Overton. 

Justin Holiday 

Another senior and a captain, Holiday has produced more and more each year.  Holiday can lock his opposition down as well.  Very smart and a student of the game, Holiday will be the guy doing all the little things on the court.  Grabbing rebounds, steals in the passing lanes, rebounding. 

Holiday will need to step his game up on the offensive side.  The mid range jumper is something that Holiday showed he was getting better at last year and will be asked to shoot a bit more and be fearless going to the rim.

Matthew Bryan-Amaning  

The third and last senior!  M.B.A. will need to be more consistent down in the paint.  Amaning has showed his skills all three years and what he can do, just not on a daily basis.

When M.B.A. is on his game, he is a force down low.  A player who can block shots, great moves, and 10 foot jump shot M.B.A. could be the best big men in the Pac-10!  When M.B.A. is off his game he is known to be one track minded and just put his head down and go to the basket. 

There is no in between with M.B.A.  It's either a good or bad night and that’s what needs to be changed.  If you’re having a bad night in one category, make up for it in another stat column.  Don’t shut down your whole game when things aren’t going right.  That will help the Dawgs out a lot in the paint.

Darnell Gant  

Gant has a good basketball I.Q. and works hard.  Being bounced in and out of the starting lineup. Gant is a good passer down low, who has an okay 10-foot jumper.  Gant will be asked to do much more out of all the big men this year.  Gant will ha ve to bang down low on the offensive side to assert himself as a force to reckon with. 

Will Gant, though?  That might not be in Gant’s game and fans will have to realize that what Gant has been doing the last three years is who Gant is on the court—nothing fancy but a player who does get it done doing the little things.  On the ground fighting for balls, finding the open man on the wing, and jump shot at times that can be reliable. 

Scott Suggs

Suggs has proved he can shoot the ball but will have to prove more on the wing.  Suggs will need to show that he can handle the ball, play better defense, and be more assertive on the court.  Suggs has had an up and down career as a Dawg but still sticks with it.  A good work ethic, Suggs just hasn’t got over the hump! 

A reliable shooter when the guards penetrate and kick it out, Suggs has hit some big shots in his years as a Dawg.  Lateral movement on defensive and overall defense  is a key to the success of Suggs this year and those things will keep him on the court longer.  If not don’t be surprised to see Ross take a lot of minutes away from Suggs.

C.J. Wilcox  

Some say Wilcox will go down as the best shooter in UW history.  A red shirt freshman last year, this will be the first year the fans and the nation will see Wilcox.  Wilcox could’ve played last year if the Huskies really needed him but didn’t.  A sharpshooter who is very athletic and can shoot off the dribble.  Wilcox could possibly be a top-five scorer on the team!  The question will be is how good is Wilcox’s defense? 

Brendan Sherrer 

Sherrer walked on to the team last year and didn’t see much time at all.  If a big man gets hurt this year, Sherrer could go from seeing barely anytime to a ton of time.

The Huskies will have their first test Thanksgiving week in Maui.  A showdown with Virginia and possible Kentucky will test their will power and heart.  Another season leads to another chapter in the Washington Huskies book.  Come march we will see how this chapter ends.

The PAC 10 is hoping to rebound from a “down” year when just two teams played in the NCAA tourney and the conference RPI ranking was nine.

Two mainstays of the tournament, UCLA and Arizona, look to return after a year’s absence while another (Washington) looks to build on last year’s run to the Sweet Sixteen.

Overall, the conference is still in rebuilding mode. But like last year, the league will be competitive. Early non-conference games have taken on increased importance and could help to determine whether or not the PAC 10 is one of the Big 6 conferences in college basketball.

The Picks

Washington

Of course the big buzz was the Lebron-esque carnival involving Terrence Jones. They had him, then they didn’t. Life goes on, though. For the Huskies it should go on at the top of the league. They did land Terrence Ross, high school and hometown friend of Jones and a top prospect as well.

Losing Quincy Pondexter, who did a lot of everything, hurts. Also, Elston Turner, a good three-point shooter has transferred. But the Huskies have more than enough returning weapons to compensate. Isaiah Thomas, Abdul Gaddy and Venoy Overton return in the back court while Matthew Bryan-Amaning returns up front.

Justin Holiday, whose minutes and productivity increased as the season went on, also returns up front. Either Darnell Gant or Brendan Sherrer needs to step up to provide some depth. Gant was inconsistent last season, while Scherrer played limited minutes.

Seven-footer Aziz N’Diaye also comes in as a transfer from junior college and gives the Huskies a potential stopper on the defensive end.

The Huskies should win the conference, barring injuries or an unforeseen catastrophe. Their play in the Maui Invitational will give us a clue at to where they are at on the national scene.

Prediction: First

Arizona

Two keys to the Wildcats' season: Derrick Williams' continued development and the ability of Lamont Jones to take over the point from the graduated Nic Wise.

Last year’s freshman of the year, Williams, was dominant at times and led the Wildcats in scoring and rebounding (16 points, seven rebounds per game). He will lead in scoring again but needs more consistent outside shooting from those around him.

Jones didn’t start but played 19 minutes a game and showed some offensive prowess. If he can be a distributor as well, Arizona’s offense should be okay. The ‘Cats also welcome top-100 recruit Daniel Bejarano, who may see some minutes at shooting guard or small forward.

Last, Sean Miller’s teams get better. Last season was supposed to be a year of transition but the ‘Cats were competitive, finishing 10-8 in the conference. A couple of extra wins this year puts them near the top. A November 27th tilt with Kansas could be an early-season litmus test.

Prediction: Second

Washington State

Klay Thompson, Reggie Moore, DeAngelo Casto and Marcus Capers return to form a solid nucleus this season for the Cougars.

Thompson faded a bit down the stretch when his shot was off so he needs to find other ways to score. He did get to the foul line five times per game and is an excellent foul shooter, so look for those numbers to go up.

Casto is a big, solid interior scorer and rebounder while Moore is a slasher who likes to take the ball to the rim. Scoring shouldn’t be an issue with this team provided they can find someone to compensate for the loss of Nikola Korprivica’s outside shooting.

Some conference home losses pushed the Cougars to the bottom of the PAC 10 standings last year. With an extra year of experience, they will move up sharply this season.

Prediction: Third

USC

Yeah, I know. But despite the turmoil that has surrounded this team the past couple of seasons, the Trojans have some established talent.

Alex Stepheson and Nikola Vucevic return to form a formidable duo in the front court for USC. Both can score and Vucevic is a legitimate shot-blocker on the defensive end. Top-100 recruit Bryce Jones is a shooter and will help offset the loss of Dwight Lewis.

Perhaps the fate of the Trojans won’t be apparent until transfer Jio Fontan joins the team just before Christmas. Fontan, a point guard who averaged nearly sixteen points a game for the Fordham Rams, will step in where Mike Gerrity did last year and hopefully provide the same spark—only for a more extended period.

USC won't try to run and gun, but they will play defense and their offense, come December, may be more diverse than it was last year.

Prediction: Fourth

UCLA

Ifs and maybes surround Ben Howland’s team once again.

He seems to have landed the big body he covets in the middle in Josh Smith but apparently, it's a bigger body than it needs to be. Tyler Lamb also moves in, but to a position (shooting guard) that appears to be overcrowded at the moment.

Jerime Anderson or Malcolm Lee has to emerge as the main point guard for the Bruins. This is their key position, one where they lacked an identity last year and there are questions as to whether either of the two is the player to lead the back court. So much so, that Lazeric Jones was brought in as a JUCO transfer, not usually UCLA’s way.

There is some developing talent up front in Tyler Honeycutt and Reeves Nelson and they will benefit from Smith’s presence in the middle, but consistency may be a year away for this group.

They will be better this season, but maybe not good enough to get back to the Big Dance. The preseason NIT Tip-Off will be a strong test for this young group.

Prediction: Fifth

Six Through Ten

6. Arizona State 

Don't ever count Herb Sendek’s teams out. Last year the Sun Devils finished a surprising 12-6, second to California in the league. Keala King is the top recruit for ASU but they have lost too much to challenge for top spot.

7. California

Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Jamal Boykin are gone as is 75 percent of the Bears scoring. Mike Montgomery’s teams have never finished below .500 in the PAC 10 but this year will be a challenge. Good recruits are coming in like Gary Franklin, Allen Crabbe, Richard Solomon, Justin Cobbs.

That said, the Bears are a year away from moving back into the top half of the conference. The Old Spice tourney will be good experience as the Bears will play Temple and either Notre Dame or Georgia.

8. Stanford

Replacing Landry Fields’s scoring is the top priority. Junior Jeremy Green will assume that role, and he had a very good season a year ago, averaging 16 points per game.

Stanford also had arguably the best recruiting class this season, landing top-100 recruits Anthony Brown and Dwight Powell, who give the Cardinal some size up front. Still, like several others in the group, they seem to be at least a year away.

9. Oregon State

The Beavers were somewhat of a disappointment last season, failing to improve upon their CBI championship season of 2008-2009. Roeland Schaftenaar and Seth Tarver are gone and the lack of an interior presence remains. J

Joe Burton is a big body (6’7’’, 295) but it is questionable if he can log big minutes. Freshmen Chris Brown, Devon Collier and Eric Moreland have size and need to contribute right away in some capacity. Another team that is at least a year off from competing at the top.

10. Oregon

Ernie Kent is gone and Dana Altman is in as coach, after many successful seasons at Creighton. The proverbial cupboard is not bare for the Ducks but he will need at least a year or two to shape this team.

Tajuan Porter is gone but the bulk of the scoring and minutes return for the Ducks, who finished 7-11 in conference play last season. Putting them here might be too harsh as other teams are re-tooling as well.

Does Gonzaga schedule enough "big" opponents to minimize the hits they take for playing a soft schedule in the West Coast Conference?

Yes in fact, they do !

The short answer is Gonzaga plays top 70 opponents rather frequently and sometimes in back-to-back games. This particular aspect of their scheduling has earned the Bulldogs great respect from major conferences.

For example, during the 2007 season Gonzaga played a stretch of games that included Georgia, Duke, Nevada and Virginia in consecutive games. Those teams all were ranked in the top 70 and were tournament bound.

Although Gonzaga lost those games this stretch was arguably as tough or tougher than any stretch played in the Pac-10.

In the previous parts to this analysis of this "rivalry" we looked at the numbers and statistics behind the comparison. The numbers show that Gonzaga's weak conference schedule can not be overcome by strong non-conference scheduling. The one caveat is if they managed to schedule top 25 teams for nearly every one of their non-conference games.

Does that mean Gonzaga needs the series more than Washington?  

No, a game with Washington does not rectify the problems of the weak conference, but it can't hurt. 

A game between these two teams could be mutually beneficial— despite the deficiencies in Gonzaga's schedule and SOS rankings, the Bulldogs are a tournament team with a great track record.

Coupled with a big time regional rivalry game atmosphere and you have a winning combination.

The excitement alone would benefit both teams in terms of regional exposure and recruiting. Playing this series would be good for each team, the fans, and basketball in the state of Washington and it should be played at a neutral site each and every year.

Is it better be be a big fish in a little pond like Gonzaga, or a medium to large fish in a large pond like Washington?

This is the philosophical question that the selection committee wrestles with each march.

Boise State or Utah in football, like Gonzaga in Basketball, faces the extreme prejuduce from the selection committees due to the weak conference's where they play.  Each team pads their non conference schedule with strong teams to pad their SOS. 

Beyond the SOS analysis, the question is whether it makes a difference and if a team that only plays three or four "big" games equates with a team that plays in a major conference.

A team that only has a handful of competitive games can mentally prepare and exert extra effort of those select games and then coast through the rest of the season.  Conversely, teams that play in major conferences must stay mentally tough and exert a high level of effort each and every week of the season.  This schedule structure is the basic difference between the WCC and the PAC-10.

How do you compare the rigors of playing an entire season of PAC-10 competition to that of a lesser schedule littered with a few to notch opponents? 

For one you can compare how frequently each team is successful against the "top-70" opponents. 

What is a "top-70" opponent?  There are a number of ways to define this and in this analysis, a top opponent is any team ranked in the "top-70" teams according to the ken pomeroy rankings.  For example, Gonzaga played 8 top teams during the 2009-10 season [Mich. St (23), Wisc. (9), Wake Forest (58), Duke (1), Illinois (53), St. Mary's (42) twice, Memphis (55)] and St. Mary's (42) in the WCC tournament.Washington also played eight top opponents in their schedule in the PAC-10 [Wright St. (65), Texas Tech (69), Georgetown (13), Texas A&M (17), Arizona St. (47) twice, California (15) twice] and California (15) in the PAC-10 tournament.

To get an accurate comparison the date must be analyzed over the course of each season and to take in to account the number of games against "top-70" opponents and the overall record against them.   

For the 2009-10 season Gonzaga had a 4-5 record against top opponents with an average ranking of 35.375 while Washington had a 5-4 record against top opponents with an average ranking of 29.750.  This result would state that Gonzaga played worse "top-70" opponents and had an inferior record against them. 

This does not diminish the season that Gonzaga had or diminish the degree of difficulty their schedule presented, but it does show that their non conference schedule did not adequately make up for their weak conference.  Gonzaga played a slightly easier schedule and had more time between tough games then Washington.

The results are even more telling during the 2008-09 season where Washington played 20 "top-70" opponents.  Washington had a 13-7 record against those opponents with an average pomeroy ranking of 31.35.  Gonzaga on the other hand played 12 "top-70" opponents during the same season.  Gonzaga had a 9-4 record against those opponents that had an average pomeroy ranking of 35.25. 

How do you compare the two teams when they play different opponents and play a different number of quality games against top 70 teams? The answer is to find a way to calculate a standard measure that takes in to account the amount of top 70 quality games that you play and how often you win those games.

Divide the number of top 70 wins by their average pomeroy rating and then multiply that number by the total number of top 70 games played to get a standarized quality win rating.  This is a simple rating that incorporates number of quality wins, Ken Pomeroy rating, and the total number of top 70 games played.  This is a purely relational rating which means that it is meant only for comparison purposes and they mean nothing standing on their own.  For example, Washington recorded 5 wins (out of 9 games) against top 70 opponents with an average rating of 29.750 in the 2009-10 season.  This amounts to a quality win rating of 1.512 for UW during that season.  Gonzaga recorded 4 quality wins (out of 9) with a average pomeroy rating of 35.375 for a quality win rating of 1.018.   This data shows that the UW's schedule was more grueling and that they posted more quality wins than that of Gonzaga. 

The moral of this story is that there are major differences between the top heavy schedule of Gonzaga and then balanced PAC-10 schedule.  The schedule differences are the central piece of this debate and each school has a reasonable claim to SOS superiority. 

*The third part of this analysis will analyze the affects of playing (and scheduling) only a few top opponents in their non confrence schedule.

The Washington Huskies underachieved through most of the 2009-10 season, and a surprising run in the NCAA Tournament showed what they were actually capable of. Next year, this squad will have everyone returning with the exception of Quincy Pondexter.

Everyone knew that losing Pondexter was going to take away the number one scoring option for the Dawgs, but hey, they're getting big-man Enes Kanter from Turkey, and top-10 recruit Terrence Jones. Not to mention, juniors Clarence Trent and Elston Turner will return with more experience under their belts.

Fast forward, and the commitments from Kanter and Jones now belong to Darth Calipari at Kentucky, while Turner and Trent will both transfer.

So what does this mean for Washington? Well, in the long-run, they're going to be just fine. 

Jones is an eccentric, six-foot-nine forward that had Quincy Pondexter 2.0 written all over him. He's going to be part of a Kentucky team that, even after losing four of their five starters, will likely compete for another SEC championship—for a year. 

Jones will probably grace some highlight reels, and be a huge asset to a great college team- for a year. 

After that, like John Wall and Demarcus Cousins before him, Jones is going to enter the NBA Draft.

So Washington will miss out on one year that could have been amazing. And I think what it came down to was Jones picking the school where he'll get the most publicity, and this clearly isn't Washington.

Lorenzo Romar's Huskies are the pure college basketball team. You don't typically see lots of Huskies making the leap to the pros after one or two seasons. That's why Romar has the tendency of developing players in college, and prepping them for the NBA.

Romar has had success with this formula too. What you end up with is a core of players who have experience at the college level, and eventually learn to win.

Take Brandon Roy and Pondexter. It wasn't really until their senior years that they became talented and mature enough to lead a team. Kings' forward Jon Brockman saw his most productive year at UW as a senior also.

Washington doesn't typically get the guys who are one-and-done in college. They haven't had one since Spencer Hawes left back in 2007. However, Washington has won a Pac-10 regular season and tournament championship since then.

Don't get me wrong Dawg fans, losing Jones just downright sucks. But in the end, Washington would have only been a temporary detour for a player who's already got the Association on his mind. 

I look for Abdul Gaddy to come into his sophomore season more comfortable shooting the ball, while Isaiah Thomas will take on the primary leadership role. 

Looking at Washington's 2010 recruiting class, things will still be fine. Without Jones and Kanter, this class isn't necessarily regarded as one of the best in the nation, but is still highlighted by forwards Terrence Ross and Desmond Simmons.

Ross is a top-100 recruit and a great perimeter shooter who could very easily have an instant impact. 

Simmons will likely be more of a Pondexter story. It might take him a year or two before he starts to develop enough to see lots of time, but he's six-foot-seven and is a good shooter. 

Don't worry Husky fans. This is a program that has an emphasis on getting proper development and experience, and 2010 will be an evidence of that.