Kleeman's Last Word: The 10 NBA Players with the Most to Prove This Season
Writer's note: This is the second in a series of 10 lists to kick off the much anticipated 2008-09 NBA season. To read my season predictions, click here.
The idea here is simple. These 10 players have a lot riding on their performances this season. Some could vault themselves into Hall of Fame contention while others just need to prove they belong in the pros. Raptors fans will note that three major pieces from their squad appear on this dubious list. Read on and decide whether these multiple placements are positive or negative. And no, I do not hate Toronto.
My criteria for this list are based on the nuances of each of the players and how their attitudes, health and reputations have molded how we define their careers. If you disagree, I am always ready for a lively debate.
1. Yao Ming / Tracy McGrady
How could this supposed dynamic duo not top this list? No two players make more of a difference for a team in the title hunt than these oft-injured veterans. Between them, they boast more than 11 All-Star appearances and zero playoff series wins. The popularity factor could not rate higher for two athletes who begin every season shouldering great expectations but end them with first round exits.
Yao has missed more than 80 games in his last three seasons, an indictment on his durability, and McGrady has spent most of time in a Rockets uniform playing at 80 percent or not at all.
In fairness to Yao, every coach and player who has worked with him praises his work ethic and passion for the game. The 7-foot-6 Chinese center's teammates were as devastated about losing the elite center for the playoff stretch run as the injury that stomped on his competitive drive. His teammates love him, and Carroll Dawson will tell you that Yao is producing beyond the level he expected after the 2001 draft.
The Rockets have developed the No. 1 selection they wanted. His defensive recognition, beyond his obvious shot blocking faculty, has improved markedly in each season, and though he will likely not become a great help or pick and roll defender like Tim Duncan, he will learn to do those things adequately. He uses a litany of post moves to score at will against the league's biggest centers but sometimes struggles against quicker, undersized pivot men. That should also wane.
Some common knocks on Yao are unjustified, others are. Until recently, his point guard has not effectively passed to him. Rafer, you don't bounce pass it to a guy who is being fronted by midgets. The Rockets also failed to get him the rock on enough consecutive possessions in many contests last season. He has thrown up three straight junk games, maybe the worst in his career, and no excuses can explain them.
He has as much to prove as any player in the last 20 years. What good is great potential when it cannot stay on the court for a full season? The Rockets need him to stay on the court to stay in the title hunt.
And then there is McGrady, the two-time scoring champion whose zero-for-eight playoff record smells like dead fish in swamp gas. I consider McGrady one of the five most talented players to ever wear a basketball uniform. At 6'8", he can post up smaller guards and forwards, sky to the rim with ferocious athleticism, drain step-back three balls and block shots on the fast break.
All of this wondrous talent, which he used in the 2005 regular season to score 13 points in 35 seconds against the San Antonio Spurs in a comeback win, has produced nothing more than a flip-flopper who likes to talk without doing the requisite work.
He would rather blast the Toyota Center rims than work on his shooting. One year, a playoff series win is "all on him," and the next, such talk is "unfair." He acts like an MVP one moment and a victim the next.
To earn the respect of those who trash his playoff futility, and to even garner Hall of Fame consideration, he must prove that he will defend and make plays before heaving up contested jumpers on the break or under duress. The defensive lapse that allowed Brandon Roy to nail a game-winning trey? That’s on him. As is his putrid 1-16 shooting in the last two outings.
He has crashed Adelman’s offense by over dribbling instead of inspiring contagious ball movement. Does he hate the offense? Does he care if he masters it?
He can only make his teammates better if his body remains sturdy. An impatient and ailing McGrady injures the Rockets on both ends. He has the talent to be every bit as good as Paul Pierce was in the 2008 playoffs, but does he have the will?
And what was up with Coach Rick Adelman sitting him at the end of a tightly contested fourth-quarter against the Dallas Mavericks a week ago, while Ron Artest did all of the heavy lifting? Moments like that make me question his meddle and motor. If he stays healthy (and attacks the rim consistently with testicles), and Yao does also, the Rockets could win the Western Conference. If not, then prepare for another early adios in the playoffs, Houston fans.
2. Andrea Bargnani
Bryan Colangelo was the culprit in selecting Bargnani with the first pick in the 2006 NBA Draft. He saw the Italian seven footer as a lengthy athlete with an impeccable shooting touch, a la Dirk Nowitzki.
So far, Bargnani has been a pile of crap who seems too bored with his maddening flaws to try fixing them. He defends opposing threes and fours as well as I do from my office chair. His lazy attitude has landed him repeatedly in the Sam Mitchell doghouse and Jamario Moon replaced him in the starting lineup.
This guy was supposed to be a special, can't-miss talent who exploits mismatches and zone defenses, and he still can be. With Jermaine O'Neal now paired with Chris Bosh, Bargnani can accept a lesser role, which may fit his loser work ethic. He has shown brilliant flashes against elite defensive squads, twice blowing by Detroit Pistons defenders for rim-rattling dunks in a regular season game last year.
Bargnani has the tools, but he needs a fresh lesson in how to use them. As long as he defends like an apathetic chump, backs away from physical contact and refuses to attack the basket with regularity, his career will flop.
Yes, he is a project player, but the Raptors should know at the end of this season, if he is worth further assembly.
3. Allen Iverson
Iverson sits in second place on the all-time points per game list behind Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan, boasts an MVP, two All-Star game MVPs and several All-NBA selections. Those accolades alone may get the self-proclaimed "answer" into Springfield.
But, how will people remember this elite scorer when his career ends? His third stop in Detroit will say a lot about that. He teamed with Carmelo Anthony to form a powerful offensive duo that many, including Stephen A. Smith, predicted would bring the Larry O' Brien trophy to Denver. This blockbuster deal is an admission that the Nuggets experiment tanked. It exploded and it sucked.
Upon arriving to the Mile-High City, Iverson handed the keys to Anthony, who until the recent Beijing games, has been an immature brat unwilling to play NBA-level defense. The All-Star pair failed to get the Nuggets out of the first round, and both playoff series' lasted a combined nine games.
It would be ridiculous to blame everything that collapsed in Denver on Iverson, or Anthony, but teams are a reflection of their leaders, and these two looked ugly in the mirror.
Iverson is fast becoming the biggest loser to field first-ballot Hall of Fame consideration, and to start the skid marks on such unflattering talk, he needs to make this stint in Detroit work.
The Pistons believe Rodney Stuckey is the team's future point guard, so it shipped out Chauncey Billups to land Iverson. Joe Dumars and Michael Curry also think Iverson will produce at a better clip if he plays his natural position as a combo two. He has the chops to dish double digit assists per game, but does that mean he should play the point? Denver's answer to that question was "No."
A lot will be decided in the latter part of Iverson's career. The man who just took his roster spot in Denver has won a lot more with a much better attitude. Billups has played with better teammates in Motown than Iverson did in Philly or Denver, but "Mr. Big Shot" is not the one who observers once thought would be the greatest small guard to ever play the game.
Iverson ranks high in the all-time steals department, but his defense is overrated. Point guards destroy him as much as they do Steve Nash. Hey, those who do not believe me, look at what Tony Parker did to the Nuggets in those playoff series. He averaged a bit less against Denver than Phoenix, but he got to the rim at will. Few forced jumpshots for Parker.
Steals are just like blocked shots. A player can get four of those in a night and still be a terrible defender. Iverson did not show Nuggets fans a willingness to keep his man in front of him or protect the lane. He instead gambled for flashy steals that lead to blow-bys and easy scores.
Iverson might steal a ball, but if he is careless with it, the opposing point or shooting guard can steal it back and waltz to the rim for a lay up. Is that acceptable defense?
AI has the chops to finally win a ring with Detroit, but there are many questions surrounding his newest team. One of those uncertain players lands in the next spot on this list.
4. Rasheed Wallace
Charles Barkley on Wallace: "he could be the best player in the NBA if he wanted to be." Anyone who knows this guy's rare and complete skill set should agree, for once, with the often prediction-challenged gambler who makes Inside the NBA such a hoot for viewers.
Dumars just shipped out Chauncey Billups to Denver in exchange for Allen Iverson, but did he move the wrong piece? The Pistons have reached six straight Eastern Conference Finals, an unparalleled accomplishment that is diminished by Detroit losing three of them against inferior competition.
Wallace can post up, use his athleticism to drive a clogged lane, shoot from long-distance with stunning accuracy and defend and block shots as well as anyone. On how many nights does he channel these talents in a winning way, and if he did it more, would Detroit have sacked at least two more of those conference finals?
The one year Wallace consistently decided to insert himself as a post presence, the Pistons won a championship. He did so for much of 2005, and the Pistons returned to the NBA Finals. Blame it all on Flip Saunders if you want, but I'm not buying it.
There is a difference between can and will, and that gap leaves 'Sheed stuck in proverbial mud. He has no chance at the Hall of Fame, but he can at least resurrect a career as noted for its abundance of technical fouls as its production. Wallace has calmed a bit, but he needs to learn that a bad temper can translate to a mean game (see Artest, Ron).
If he stops playing like a mental wuss, Detroit will be favored to do more than just reach the conference finals this year.
5. Jose Calderon
Colangelo engineered a largely unheralded trade that saw the Indiana Pacers swap Jermaine O' Neal for T.J. Ford, and now Calderon must prove that his basketball boss did not send the wrong point guard packing.
Calderon's new multi-millions contract assumes he can quarterback a team that oozes talent, but has also reeked of defenselessness and softness. He scored 29 points and nabbed 11 assists in a win over the Milwaukee Bucks in the opening week, helping the Raptors to an early 3-0 mark, and that shows promise. The team still looks impressive with a respectable 4-2 record and its starting point guard has played his part brilliantly.
However, his petite frame leaves him susceptible to driving attacks by better point guards in the clutch moments of a game. I trust the Spanish guard to shoot a nice percentage from behind the arc and distribute the ball without turning it over (he had last season's best assist-to-turnover ratio), but I would not sic him on Tony Parker, Chris Paul or Deron Williams in a key playoff game. Not now.
His success in Toronto will be predicated by his defensive development. He will continue to score and assist at a level that suggests Ford was the right one to let go, but as I discussed with Iverson, numbers are only part of the equation. If he scores 20 points and connects 10 times with teammates, but his opponent scores 25-30 points and drills at least 11 assists, his leaking defense overshadows his offensive production.
He could be the difference between Toronto watching the conference finals on TV and playing in it.
6. Andris Biedrins
The Golden State Warriors threw $60 million at this marginally effective center to keep him from signing overseas. It seems ridiculous to expect Biedrins to ever earn such a huge paycheck but maybe, just maybe, Chris Mullin was not in full panic mode when he offered the Latvian big man this grandiose contract.
Consider that Mullin’s team missed the playoffs, and also knew that it faced key offseason decisions with Monta Ellis and Biedrins. Baron Davis opted out of his deal at the last minute, and that was the surprise move of the summer.
Just two weeks into the season, Biedrins leads the league in double doubles, with six, and sits in second place in rebounds per game. The number of rebounds he is grabbing per 40 minutes of action, 18, good for second place, is also nifty. Again though, statistics will never define Biedrins’ success.
A starting center must stay on the floor and defend without fouling. The other night against the undermanned Denver Nuggets, he finished with a slick 16 points and 13 rebounds. Most importantly, he impacted the game’s finish. With less than three minutes to go and the game in the balance, he took a feed from Steven Jackson and spun for a sick dunk over Nene and finished the three-point play.
Sure, Nene Hilario is not Tim Duncan or Carlos Boozer, but that one play was a snapshot of what he must do to earn that expensive keep. He also fouled out of that game, and his block to personal foul ratio is what you would expect, given his hack-y reputation.
It will take a lot more than two weeks to evaluate Biedrins’ overall performance, but among the factors will be what happens in the W/L column for the Warriors. With Maggette nursing a hamstring ailment, Ellis serving a 30 game suspension and also injured, and the team without a true point guard, Biedrins is staring at his golden parachute. The playing time is there, and if he does the right things with it, he will keep it when those aforementioned regulars return.
7. Jermaine O' Neal
Nothing more than a legacy is on the line as O’Neal tries to form the best 1-2, forward-center punch in the league with Chris Bosh. He has yet to imprint himself on the Raptors nice 4-2 record.
The Raptors, specifically Sam Mitchell, wonder where his offensive game went, and his rebounding has not been sterling either. Any player with such immense talent deserves to be slammed for his shortcomings. O’Neal’s include softness and going for athletic shot blocks before playing effective defense. Sure, blocking a shot prevents a score, but sometimes only temporarily so.
O’ Neal botched an opportunity to win in Indiana with an aging, but still effective Reggie Miller, and with Jamal Tinsley and Ron Artest. Injuries have also limited his time on the court, and as much as they occurred against his will, excuses don’t help how they shape his career image.
The list of bigs who can notch 20 and 10 against premier opponents is short. O’Neal possesses the talent to impose himself on that elite level, but how badly does he want to get there?
He said at a press conference introducing him to the Toronto media that he will bring a physical, defensive presence to a team that lacks one. When Rasho Nesterovic is the toughest player on your team, it’s time to sound the defense alarm. Bryan Colangelo answered that distress call with the spotty O’Neal.
His play in Toronto has been just that, but he deserves a chance to earn back the respect of the same people who thought he was headed for a special career before laziness and injuries derailed it. If he makes the spectacular return only some think he can achieve, I will note it accordingly.
8. Dirk Nowitzki
Remember when pundits chastised the Mavericks for selecting a German project ahead of the flashier Paul Pierce in the 1998 NBA Draft? When Nowitzki led his squad to the 2006 NBA Finals, and Pierce was left floundering on mediocre to terrible Celtics squads, that talk seemed like rubbish.
Now, Pierce has a championship and his team is favored to win its conference again. Nowitzki’s Mavs couldn’t be farther from a Larry O’ Brien trophy and he is the culprit. Or so his biggest detractors say.
No NBA player has seen his fortitude and heart questioned more than this jump shooting 7-footer, and given his multitude of post season choke jobs, he deserves every lick of it. Though he may earn entry into the Hall for his refinement of the power forward position and his elevation from a supposed lesser Peja Stojakovic to superstar caliber, his work is far from done.
Nowitzki can say a lot about the Mavericks as a championship contender. If the critics are correct, Jason Kidd belongs in the league’s old folks home, Josh Howard is a lost cause and the team will not overcome its ‘take it bending over’ mentality. Avery Johnson asked Nowitzki to junk up his offensive arsenal with post moves and a balanced attack. When he does answer that call, his drive to win shines and so do the Mavs.
When he allows inferior support players and scrubs to push him around in the paint, and when he resorts to firing away from 20+ feet with a hand in his face, he and the Mavs are basketball garbage.
The debate with Nowitzki has always been a tough one. Do you want your best and most talented player, your franchise star forward, to be a three-point threat? Wouldn’t you rather land a defensive banger who will force his way inside before jacking up jumpers?
The Mavs drafted Nowitzki on a hunch that he would become an all-time great, and he has been the face of every success this once joke of a team enjoyed. He has also been the scapegoat and figurehead of every playoff miss.
If he cares at all about those who question his motivation, and he should, he will sport that newly minted smile fresh from Rick Carlisle’s arrival after a big win in the playoffs. His prime years will allow him to post All-NBA worthy numbers for a few more seasons, but his window for carrying this team to June glory will close much sooner. This season might be it.
So, what’ll it be, Dirk?
9. Adam Morrison
There was this guy at Gonzaga University in the WCC who led the nation in scoring at 28 points per game and competed with Duke rival J.J. Reddick for all of the major collegiate awards. Yes, what happened to that guy or Reddick?
The above image looks more like the best thing that will happen to Morrison in the pros. He struggled mightily his rookie season to find good shots, and his coach Bernie Bickerstaff felt compelled to play him only because his not-so-super-boss Michael Jordan had selected him with the draft’s third pick. What plagues both Morrison and Reddick is one-dimensional defenselessness.
They are not skilled at anything other than spot up offense, and since no credible defense will double off of them long enough to score in double digits, that makes their inability to do anything else a glaring liability. Larry Brown, the micro manager hired by Jordan to turn around the lousy Bobcats, so far does not seem to be a Morrison fan.
The former college star missed his entire second season to injury, and now he’s missing most of this season, languishing on the bench, because his coach detests his defensive deficiency. Go ahead Bobcats fans, and decry that Brown has not played Morrison enough to develop an informed opinion, but there’s this thing called practice, and clearly, Brown does not like what he sees from this guy in it.
It’s not far-fetched to picture this guy signing for $2 million in a few years as a designated shooter on a team who needs one. He will compete with 15-18 other players to make the back end of a roster, and will only play spot minutes. In 2006, his top five lottery selection seemed to secure his future in the NBA.
Now, it becomes the catalyst for his ouster on a bad team. Morrison is one in a lot of players who will spend this season trying to keep professional employment. Adam Morrison, with that scary looking beard, at the unemployment office? Can you picture it?
10. Larry Hughes
Filling the 10 spot was a chore, considering the wealth of players eligible for this dubious honor. But, I decided to go for the guy whose shooting so angered a Cleveland Cavaliers fan that he created his own Web site about it.
Visit heylarryhughespleasestoptakingsomanybadshots.com and see why this fan was fussing, prior to the deal that sent Hughes to Chicago. No one should question his raw ability or the many gifts bestowed upon him by the basketball gods. Either he forgot to unwrap most of them, or doesn’t have the will to use them correctly. Hughes can light up the scoreboard as much as any NBA player but he often lacks discipline, and injuries have damaged his play.
Unlike many of the others on this list, Hughes can sport defensive prowess. He is far from a one-dimensional player, but sits as close to unspectacular in the consistent performance department as you get. In making this selection, I wondered what Hughes still has to prove. His game is nowhere near worth the $70 million the Cavs management tossed him in 2005, and it seems unlikely that his average play will ever become more than that.
However, with Derrick Rose’s arrival in Chicago, the Bulls must deal with a glut of talented guards. Most have speculated that John Paxson would deal Kirk Hinrich first, but why not ship off Hughes? If he wants something to play for, then he best get healthy and prove that he belongs in neophyte coach Vinny Del Negro’s rotation.
Dishonorable mention: Steve Francis, Corey Maggette, Baron Davis, and Eddy Curry.