Travon Walker

The NFL Network's Charles Davis released his second mock draft Monday, projecting Georgia defensive lineman Travon Walker to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the top overall pick. 

He had Michigan edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson going No. 2 overall to the Detroit Lions; Alabama offensive tackle Evan Neal at No. 3 to the Houston Texans; Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner at No. 4 to the New York Jets; and NC State offensive tackle Ickey Ekwonu rounding out the top five to the New York Giants. 

Other notable picks included three quarterbacks coming off the board in the first round: Liberty's Malik Willis to the Carolina Panthers at No. 6, Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder to the Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 20 and Kenny Pickett to the Detroit Lions at No. 32.

Alabama's Jameson Williams is the top wideout off the board at No. 10 to the New York Jets. 

Walker would be a fascinating pick for the rebuilding Jaguars. There's no doubt he's a talent, but opinions are widely divided just how talented. 

The B/R Scouting Department has him ranked as the No. 26 player on its latest big board, which would make him quite the reach as the top overall pick. B/R has Oregon edge-rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux atop its big board. 

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah had Walker at No. 6 on his latest big board, however, behind a top five of Hutchinson, Ekwonu, Gardner, Notre Dame safety Kyle Hamilton and Ohio State wideout Garrett Wilson. 

He called Walker a "versatile edge defender with exceptional length and athleticism" who is "very disruptive" and whose "best football is ahead of him."

And ESPN's consensus rankings from its four draft analysts—Mel Kiper Jr., Todd McShay, Matt Miller and Jordan Reid—had Walker ranked No. 7 overall, with Kiper the lowest on him (No. 10) and Miller the highest (No. 4). 

There has been buzz, however, that Walker could be the top overall selection:

Still, based on most of the draft prognosis out there, Walker going No. 1 overall would be considered a reach. For some, a massive reach. 

One thing that isn't up for debate is that the Jaguars cannot afford to get the pick wrong. Otherwise, they'll find themselves selecting No. 1 overall for the third straight year. 

Aidan Hutchinson is reportedly losing his grip on being the No. 1 overall pick.

Multiple people around the NFL spoke to Peter King of NBC Sports and said they expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to ultimately select Georgia's Travon Walker with the top selection.

"I look at [Jags GM] Trent Baalke's history going back to San Francisco," one general manager said. "That year he picked Aldon Smith [2011]; look who he passed on—J.J. Watt, Cam Jordan. Bigger guys, sturdier guys. Trent picked the guy with tools and traits, Smith. That's why I think he'll take Travon Walker. Great kid, and he's got all the traits except consistent production."

Walker has been among the fastest-rising players in the draft because of his incredible physical talent. The Georgia product ran a blazing 4.51-second time in the 40-yard dash at the combine while measuring in at 6'5" and 275 pounds. He has the capability to play all over the defensive line, lining up both on the interior and as an edge-rusher last season.

"I wouldn't draft Walker thinking you're getting Von Miller," another general manager said. "He's not a classic edge. He's more an all-around guy who plays the run well too. He's a great example of this draft—not a no-doubt prospect, but intriguing."

As much as Walker has impressed with his physical gifts, his college production pales in comparison to Hutchinson's. The Michigan defensive end was a rare Heisman finalist from the defensive side of the ball after recording 62 tackles and 14 sacks during his breakout 2021 campaign. He swept essentially every possible defensive individual honor and had been pegged as the No. 1 pick for months.

While Hutchinson isn't quite the same physical athlete as Walker, he's still more than quick enough off the edge and carries enough size (6'6", 265 lbs) to be a perennial Pro Bowler.

Taking Walker over Hutchinson would be a bet on potential over production, and it's not clear that Walker's ceiling is high enough to justify taking him over arguably the safest pick in this class.

There have reportedly been "whispers" the Jacksonville Jaguars may select Georgia defensive end Travon Walker with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL draft.

ESPN's Matt Miller reported the update Friday, but he added it could be a smokescreen from the Jags to create additional trade interest in the top choice and noted it's "hard to imagine" the team selecting anybody other than Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson.

Walker wasn't a major part of the No. 1 conversation until he dazzled at the NFL Scouting Combine in early March, highlighted by a 4.51-second 40-yard dash. That immediately created a major increase in the amount of buzz around the 6'5'', 275-pound lineman.

The 21-year-old Georgia native didn't have a dominant college career from a statistical perspective, though. He recorded 61 total tackles, 9.5 sacks, three passes defended, a forced fumble and an interception in 29 appearances across three seasons.

While he showed some progress as an edge-rusher in 2021, tallying six sacks, that's still less than half what Hutchinson posted for Michigan in his final college season (14).

So taking Walker first overall would be a bet his late improvement with the Bulldogs was a sign of things to come given his high-end athletic ability.

At the combine, he explained playing for Georgia put him in great position to fill any edge role in the NFL, even if it didn't result in eye-popping numbers on the stat sheet.

"Someone who can do it all, athlete, whatever the coach needs," Walker told reporters when asked to describe himself as a prospect. "If I didn't know myself or if I saw me play for the first time, I'd have to say he's a tremendous athlete, he can do anything on the field."

Although there's some definite upside when it comes to the Georgia standout, Hutchinson may be too tough to pass up for Jacksonville given his terrific senior season.

Along with the 14 sacks, he tallied 62 total tackles, three passes defended and two forced fumbles, showing signs he could be a true game-changer off the edge in the NFL.

Those numbers rocketed him toward the top of the draft class, but Hutchinson told Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated in March he always believed that's where he belonged.

"I think, in my head, I always knew it," he said. "In my head, I always viewed myself like that. ... Now everyone sees me at No. 1, but I've been seeing myself at No. 1 for a very long time now."

Whether it's Hutchinson or Walker, the Jaguars' defense will be happy to welcome another pass-rusher to a unit that ranked 27th with just 32 sacks in 2021.

When an NFL team gambles on potential with a top draft pick, the selection could pay off, but it may also sting for years.

When analysts and those within the league break down prospects, a player's physical profile can outweigh lackluster collegiate numbers, which is the case for Travon Walker, who may be in play as a top-three selection.

We can point to examples of edge-rushers who didn't rack up eye-popping pass-rushing numbers on the collegiate level but jumped off to a productive career start. The MMQB's Albert Breer heard of a comparison between Walker and Minnesota Vikings edge-rusher Danielle Hunter, but remember, the latter came off the board in the third round, which is a safe gamble. 

On the NFL Network's Good Morning Football show, Peter Schrager of Fox Sports discussed the possibility that the Jacksonville Jaguars could take Walker with the No. 1 overall pick:

Schrager gave some insight about Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke's draft history and why he may value Walker's athletic profile over more polished prospects or players with stronger resumes such as Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux.

During the segment, Schrager mentioned Aldon Smith, who had the physical tools to explode on the pro level and logged 33.5 sacks through his first two seasons. With that said, the Missouri product had an 11.5-sack campaign as a redshirt freshman, and he went No. 7 overall in the 2011 draft.

Even DeForest Buckner, another former Baalke draft pick during his time as the San Francisco 49ers general manager, logged 10.5 sacks in his final term at Oregon. Arik Armstead only registered four sacks as a collegian, but he came off the board as the No. 17 overall pick, which is a good spot to take a chance on a high-upside prospect. 

At No. 1 overall, the Jaguars should take a defensive prospect who's further along in development, and therefore has a better chance to produce right away, or a player who can protect quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Why roll the dice on Walker's potential when Alabama's Evan Neal or North Carolina State's Ikem Ekwonu can protect the team's biggest investment under center for about a decade or longer?

If the Jaguars want a pass-rusher, Hutchinson, who has a higher floor because of his pass-rushing move set and refined technique, would better suit the team's need on the edge.

Though Thibodeaux needs work with his hand usage and secondary pass-rush moves, he still possesses great upside because of his size, speed and length combination at 6'4", 254 pounds with 33⅛" arms. By the way, the Oregon standout had nine sacks and 14 tackles for loss as a true freshman. 

At No. 1 overall, Jacksonville should avoid a one-year starter who doesn't have much pass-rushing production on his resume. With that approach, the Jaguars would minimize the probability of taking a bust, and the same goes for the Detroit Lions at No. 2 as well as the Houston Texans with the third overall selection. 

The Lions don't have a strong need on the edge. Their coaching staff helped Charles Harris turn his career around after he flamed out with the Miami Dolphins and had an underwhelming 2020 season with the Atlanta Falcons. The 2017 first-rounder logged 65 tackles, 10 for loss, 7.5 sacks and 34 pressures in 2021. Just two years ago, Romeo Okwara registered a 10-sack campaign. His brother, Julian, flashed as a second-year pass-rusher, logging five sacks and 14 pressures. 

While Detroit shouldn't pass up on an upgrade at the position, Walker may need a year or two before his physical traits translate into pro production. As of right now, he's not a clear-cut improvement over Harris or the Okwara brothers. On the other hand, Hutchinson and Thibodeaux would likely crack the starting lineup as rookies because of their pass-rushing production.

As for the Texans, they need a prospect who can bolster the pass rush right away. Their defense finished tied for 27th in sacks (32) and ranked 28th in pressure rate (20.7 percent) last season.

Walker can provide versatility, and he's already a reliable run defender, but as Derrik Klassen points out in his Bleacher Report scouting analysis, the Georgia product looks a bit raw as a pass-rusher:

"On passing downs, Walker lacks consistency, but the tools are there. He flies off the ball at times (usually better when standing up) and displays better flexibility than expected for a player his size, which is a devastating combo when paired with his length and overwhelming punch.

"Walker needs to hone his sequencing as a pass-rusher, as well as be more consistent in how he drives his legs through contact, but he can still be disruptive as he is right now."

Through three terms at Georgia, Walker finished with 9.5 sacks and 19 quarterback hurries.

If Houston wanted a Day 1 prospect who can set the edge against the run and play in different spots across the defensive line next season, Walker would fit the description, but that type of player doesn't usually come off the board within the top three selections. Teams can use that pick on a mid-to-late first-rounder. The Texans should hope that either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux falls to them at No. 3.

In terms of draft position value, Walker is a better fit for teams slightly outside of the top three spots.

According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, the top six clubs in draft order have scheduled a visit with Walker.

The New York Giants and New York Jets don't have to use their top-five selections on Walker because they also hold pick Nos. 7 and 10, respectively. The Texans will have their second turn in the first round at No. 13, but the Georgia product isn't likely to fall that far after he boosted his stock with an impressive NFL Scouting Combine performance.

The Giants and Jets sit in sweet spots with a pair of top-10 picks that will allow them to take a swing at Walker without overvaluing him.

As for the Jaguars, who have one first-rounder, they should take a prospect who's more likely to play a big role in his rookie season. The Lions and Texans have multiple Day 1 picks, but both clubs should avoid the increased potential of a bust with their top-three selections and either take a more proven pass-rusher or trade up for Walker if he falls outside of the top 10.

Walker may become a productive pass-rusher on the pro level, but he's not worth the risk in the top three.

College statistics are provided by cfbstats.com.

Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.