MVC Basketball

Missouri State (11-19, 3-15) against Wichita State (15-15, 8-10)

Game played at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Mo

Line: Wichita State -2

Missouri State finished the regular season with a 52-69 road loss against Indiana State. The loss was the second in a row for the Bears and their sixth defeat in their last seven contests.

Missouri State finished in last place with four games separating them from the closest team. These two teams split the regular season series with each team winning at home.

Wichita State fell to Southern Illinois 68-72 on Saturday to finish in a three-way tie for fifth place in the Missouri Valley Conference standings. Wichita State now has to perform away from home to advance, and the Shockers have been terrible on the road. Wichita State defeated Indiana State and Siena in their only road victories this season.

ATS-

Missouri State is 9-18-2 against the spread including 5-8 on the road

Wichita State is 11-14 against the spread including 6-8 on the road

Not that these teams are good to start with, but they both are very bad road teams. Both teams won just two games all season on the road and have poor ATS numbers there as well.

Both teams have trouble scoring and I expect a close low scoring affair. While I think Missouri State has a shot here, I’m going with the Shockers, as I think they have a better chance of having success on offense in a low scoring game.

Dave’s Pick: Wichita State -2

See dozens of more free picks at cbbplace.com

Now that it is March, Championship Week is now upon us.

It begins Saturday, and over the next nine days 31 conference champions will be crowned and 34 others will enter the NCAA tournament as at-large entries.

While the major conference tournaments don’t start till next week, there will be plenty of excitement Saturday and beyond as small schools fight to get their ticket punched to the big dance as a 13-16 seed.

It is one of the few chances where small conferences get the spotlight, as every small school has the dream of being this year's George Mason or Davidson.

Here is what to expect in the mid and low major tournaments over the next week out of those conferences whose regular season is over with.

America East Conference

Vermont has been at the top of the conference for much of the decade, and this year hasn’t been any different.

However, the top rivals have changed as Binghamton comes in as the No. 1 seed and Boston U the No. 3.

The conference championship game is on March 14, nearly a week later than the semifinal round.

In the final, after two close losses, expect Vermont to get revenge on Binghamton, as the third time will be the charm on the road.

Champ: Vermont

Atlantic Sun

Belmont has been the top dog the past few years, and everyone remembers its near miss last year against Duke in the tournament.

This year the No. 3 seed will have to get by No. 2 East Tennessee State and No. 1 Jacksonville.

The Bruins will have the advantage of playing in their home town of Nashville, on top of their tournament experience.

It is hard to pick against Belmont with its recent success, and I think that will continue for one more year.

Champ: Belmont

Big Sky

Portland State went to its first NCAA tournament last year, and things were going well again this year after beating Gonzaga.

However, it got swept during the regular season by Weber State and now has to travel to Ogden for the semifinals and finals.

Weber State has lost just once in conference and has been dominant at home.

It is tough to beat a good team three times, but the home court of 10,000 fans will help the Wildcats Wednesday night in the championship game.

Champ: Weber State

Big South

Winthrop has owned this conference throughout the 2000s, but this year’s team isn’t the same.

For much of the season it looked like Virginia Military would be the team to beat, but Radford surged late to get the No. 1 seed and will play at home as long as it is in the tournament.

No. 3 Liberty could also be a threat to VMI in the semifinals, but look for a Radford-VMI showdown.

VMI has come close before this decade with its up-and-down style, and this year should be the year the Runnin' Rods break through, even on the road.

Champ: VMI

Colonial

This conference has been strong of late, thanks to George Mason’s Final Four run in 2006 and Virginia Commonwealth’s upset of Duke in 2007.

The ringleader of that team for No. 1 VCU is still there in Eric Maynor.

As the top seed last year, the Rams were upset before the final, allowing George Mason to win the title.

The race this year has been crazy, and as many as seven teams have a chance at pulling off a run.

With all of the upsets that have occurred during the regular season, it is hard not to see one coming.

However, the top two teams should advance to the final, where VCU will get the best of Mason in a classic Monday night.

Champ: VCU

Horizon

This has been Butler’s league for much of the decade, and the road will go through Hinkle Fieldhouse again this year.

However, Butler looks much more vulnerable as it has lost a home game to No. 8 Loyola and just got by No. 3 Cleveland State Saturday.

Expect to see a rematch between the Bulldogs and Vikings Tuesday, with Butler winning for the third time this year in another close game.

Champ: Butler

Metro Atlantic

The MAAC is set up for a great championship game Monday between No. 1 Siena and No. 2 Niagara.

Niagara beat Siena Friday at home, but the conference tournament will be played on Siena’s court.

The only team who could stop this game from happening is No. 3 Rider, who would play Niagara in the semifinals and beat Siena earlier in the year.

The top two seeds should advance though, and it should be one of the best games of championship week.

In the end the Saints will go marching on, looking to repeat last year’s NCAA performance of a first round upset.

Champ: Siena

Missouri Valley

What used to be a three or four-bid league earlier in the decade has turned into a likely one-bid year this season.

The only hope for an at-large comes from No. 2 Creighton, who is red hot.

However, I think it will fall in the semifinals to No. 3 Illinois State in a rematch from Saturday.

On the other end, No. 1 Northern Iowa has struggled of late, and No. 4 Bradley could pull off the upset.

ISU takes advantage to win the tournament Sunday, while Creighton awaits a week for Selection Sunday.

Champ: ISU

Northeast

In a top-heavy conference, it should come down to the top three seeds (Robert Morris, Mount St. Mary’s, and Sacred Heart).

The home court throughout should help Robert Morris move through and punch its ticket for the big dance Wednesday.

Champ: Robert Morris

Ohio Valley

No. 2 Austin Peay and No. 3 Murray State have taken many of these titles, but they will both be looking up at No. 1 Tennessee-Martin.

UTM has been red hot of late and has one of the top scorers in the country in Lester Hudson.

Expect that to be enough to squeak through to a tournament title Saturday.

Champ: Tennessee-Martin

Patriot

No. 1 American looks to repeat as conference champs, while No. 2 Holy Cross appears to be the only team in it way.

The home court should help rally American to its second tournament berth in school history.

Champ: American

Southern

This tournament sets up to be an interesting one as No. 1 Davidson no longer is a mortal lock.

Expect it to get challenges from The Citadel and College of Charleston, both of whom beat the Wildcats this year.

In the end, Stephen Curry will lead Davidson back to the tournament, but don’t expect the same success.

Champ: Davidson

Summit

It has been all Oral Roberts the past few years, but there was a changing of the guard this year.

North Dakota State comes in as heavy favorites in its first year of postseason eligibility.

Look for it to win the conference Tuesday and punch its first big dance ticket.

Champ: North Dakota State

Sun Belt

Top-seeded Western Kentucky holds the banner for the conference after a Sweet 16 appearance a year ago.

Things won’t be as easy this year, as it doesn’t have three starters from that team.

Still, it beat Louisville early in the year and is the clear favorite to win the tournament on Tuesday.

Champ: WKU

West Coast

For the first time the conference tournament will be played in Las Vegas instead at a host school.

That should give Gonzaga an even bigger advantage after going through the conference season unbeaten.

St. Mary’s could play a spoiler, but will need star guard Patty Mills back to do so.

Expect another title Monday for the Zags.

Champ: Gonzaga

Mid-major programs have the stage this weekend as they will try to improve their tournament chances and resumes. For some of these teams, a win against their opponent could more or less lock up an at-large bid.

For others, a loss could put the team up against the wall, forcing them to win their conference tournament in order to be called on Selection Sunday. 

Without further ado, here are previews to the two significant BracketBuster games on Friday night.

Illinois State (22-5, 11-5 MVC) @ Niagara (21-7, 12-4 MAAC) 7 PM TV: ESPN2

After starting 14-0, Illinois State has posted a mediocre 8-5 record over its last 13 games. Niagara had won seven games in a row before succumbing to Rider on Wednesday.

Neither team has a chance of an at-large bid, but this game will affect seeding if either of these teams win their respective conference championship. 

Both teams are efficient on offense—the Redbirds score 1.32 points per shot while the Purple Eagles score 1.25 points per shot—but the difference in this game will be defense. Niagara has been a better defensive team all year, averaging 37.8 rebounds, 10.5 steals, and five blocks per game. Joe Mihalich's club pushes the ball off of turnovers and has the ability to put teams away with its defense. 

The combination of strong defense and playing at home, where they are 8-2, will propel the Purple Eagles to victory.

Prediction: Niagara wins 76-68

Virginia Commonwealth (19-8, 12-4 CAA) @ Nevada (15-10, 8-5 WAC)

TV: ESPNU

There are two key factors that will allow the Rams to win this game—three-point shooting and containing Luke Babbitt.

The Rams shoot 36.9 percent from long range and you can bet they'll be successful from deep tonight—the Wolf Pack allow opponents to convert on 35.3 percent of their three-point attempts. Eric Maynor, Joey Rodriguez, and Bradford Burgess are all threats from beyond the arc and should see multiple open looks against Nevada's shoddy perimeter defense. 

Luke Babbitt is one of the nation's most overlooked freshmen. He is 6'9", averages 16.2 points per game and 7.4 rebounds per game, and shoots 46.6 percent from the floor, 82.3 percent from the line, and 43.3 percent from deep. He's talented enough to play with the big boys—he dropped 22 on UNC. 

VCU's standout sophomore, Larry Sanders, will have his hands full, but he is capable of restraining Babbitt's offensive game. 

Homecourt advantage has been a non-factor for the Wolpack this year—they are a middling 8-6 at the Lawlor Events Center. VCU is 6-5 on the road, but they should be able to leave Reno with a win.

Prediction: VCU wins 76-68

I will try to have predictions for the rest of BracketBuster Weekend up by tomorrow's games.

How’s this for a headline? A team that was voted to finish sixth in the preseason poll by coaches in the conference is currently two full games ahead of second place, with an 11-2 choke hold over conference foes.

This team, projected to pass up what could be a successful season for a borderline .500 finish, is surprisingly 17-7 and has won eleven of its past twelve games in one of the toughest mid-major leagues in the nation.

So what is their secret? How do they do it? The answer for the Panthers hasn’t been outscoring, outrebounding, or outdefending opponents, it has simply been outshooting them.

The success of the Panthers, like many other bracket busters, has been a result of taking every possession for granted and making sure to get the most of each one.

And we know this because they lead the conference in both field goal percentage (46.0%) and points per shot (1.36).

They take very good care of the ball (something every bracket buster needs to do) and although their defense can be lacking at times, offensive efficiency and free throw shooting make up for it.

But surprisingly enough, despite the Panthers’ self proclaimed successful offensive sets, nobody scores over 12 points per game, a sign that this team has some serious chemistry.

The 6'8" junior Adam Koch who didn’t even receive honorable mention in the preseason polls, leads the team in both scoring and rebounding, at 12 and 5.1 per game, while also serving as an emotional leader for a team that only has one senior.

He is their go-to-guy in the critical minutes of games and shoots a remarkable 80.1 percent from the strike, something very few 6'8" 245 big men can claim.

It’s not like this team has had many disappointing losses either.

That one point loss to Indiana State in double overtime may not have been the result that they wanted, but the rest of their losses (with the exception of Illinois-Chicago) were to well established basketball programs in major programs.

And they can even brag about a six point win over Auburn, a game in which they shot 53.7 percent from the field and a stunning 8-17 from downtown. 

However, like most other mid-major programs, anything short of a conference championship would put an NCAA tournament bid in serious jeopardy. Yes, the Missouri Valley has a chance at being a two-bid league, but not if they continue to beat each other up. 

The Panthers essentially must dominate conference play from here and get that win over Siena in bracket busters weekend if they wish to lock up a bid without winning the conference. 

And a game at Illinois State on Feb. 24 will certainly be a big test as they will need to prove to the selection committee that they are capable of winning under all conditions.

But enough with the speculative future of the Panthers. February is about enjoying where a team is now without having to worry about what lies ahead (which in many cases is self-destruction). 

Northern Iowa has established itself as a premier program in the Missouri Valley Conference and will return every single one of their significant players next season to a team that could see a top-25 spot.

We, the bracketbuster fans, forgive your most recent home loss to the 19-6 Creighton Bluejays; it was an off night from downtown. If Adam Koch can put up more performances similar to that (23 and 12, 13-13 from FT), then there should be no problem against the rest of the conference, right?

Please Northern Iowa, just don’t shoot yourselves in the foot come tournament time because a Sweet 16 run is definitely possible. Keep your eyes open for this team in March.

This article is also featured on www.thebracketbusters.com.

Southern Illinois (11-13, 6-7) at Northern Iowa (17-7, 11-7)

Line: Northern Iowa -6.5

Southern Illinois gained a road victory 72-64 on Saturday, but beating Missouri State is nothing much to brag about. A much tougher task awaits in league leading Northern Iowa. At 6-7 in conference, the Salukis find themselves on the lower end of the main pack in the conference standings.

Northern Iowa dropped their second conference game on Sunday to Creighton 71-77. The Panthers shot just 18-62 (29 percent) from the field in a horrible performance. With a two-game lead in the Missouri Valley, Northern Iowa can afford the slip up.

ATS-

Southern Illinois is 12-11 against the spread including 6-6 on the road.

Northern Iowa is 10-10 against the spread including 4-5 at home.

Northern Iowa is 6-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 matchups with Southern Illinois.

 

See the rest of the article including Dave's free prediction at cbbplace.com

 

Bradley (13-11, 7-6) at Creighton (19-6, 9-4)

Line: Creighton -11.5

Coming off of a defeat to Drake 68-54 on Saturday, the Braves can’t afford too many more slip ups or they will find themselves in the lower half of the Missouri Valley Conference. A victory against Creighton and they would be within a game of second place.

Creighton is flying high after their 77-71 victory over league leading Northern Iowa on Sunday. The Blue Jays sit alone in second place, but have three teams within two games of their perch. Creighton won the first match up with Bradley by nine points and would love to get the season sweep.

ATS-

Bradley is 11-9 against the spread including 5-5 on the road

Creighton is 13-8 against the spread including 8-3 at home.

See the rest of the article including Dave's free prediction at cbbplace.com

 

Illinois State (19-5, 8-5) at Evansville (15-8, 7-6)

Line:  Pick

Illinois State suffered a defeat to last place Indiana State 75-73 on Sunday. The loss leaves the Red Birds alone in third place of the Missouri Valley Conference. With just six games remaining, there isn’t much room for error if the Red Birds still hold out hope for a conference title.

Evansville should be looking to revenge a 30-point beating they received from Illinois State back on Dec. 31. Winners of three out of their last four games, the Aces sit fourth in the conference standings, but have a tough schedule to close out the regular season.

ATS-

Illinois State s 10-10 against the spread including 4-5 on the road

Evansville is 11-8-1 against the spread including 7-5 at home

Evansville is 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 matchups with Illinois State

 

See the rest of the article including Dave's free prediction at cbbplace.com

 

Drake (15-10, 6-7) at Indiana State (5-19, 3-10)

Line: Drake -1.5

Drake broke a three-game losing streak with a 68-54 victory over Bradley on Saturday. Sitting in a tie for sixth, the Bulldogs can’t afford to trip over lower level teams like Indiana State. The Bulldogs cruised to an easy 19-point victory in their first meeting back on Jan. 7.

A 75-73 victory over Illinois State on Saturday gave the Sycamores a pair of Red Bird bookends. The victory stopped a seven-game losing streak that began after a defeat of Illinois State on Jan. 10. Indiana State has had little success outside of Illinois State and Northern Iowa though.

ATS-

Drake is 10-10 against the spread including 5-4 on the road

Drake is 6-4 against the spread in their last 10 matchups against Indiana State

Indiana State is 9-13 against the spread including 6-5 at home.

See the rest of the article including Dave's free prediction at cbbplace.com

 

Creighton (18-6, 8-4) at Northern Iowa (17-6, 11-1)

Line: Northern Iowa -2

Creighton won their third game in a row on Wednesday at Drake 79-68. The Bluejays shot 50 percent from the field and were led by Booker Woodfox with 23 points. The Bluejays currently sit tied for second place in the conference, three games behind their opponents for Sunday.

It was business as usual for Northern Iowa on Wednesday as they defeated Bradley 61-58. Although the majority of their victories have been tight ones, the Panthers have just the one loss to cellar dweller Indiana State back on Dec. 28 and enjoy a three-game conference lead.

ATS

Creighton is 12-8 against the spread, including 7-3 on the road.

Creighton is 8-2 against the spread against Northern Iowa in their last 10 matchups.

Northern Iowa is 10-9 against the spread, including 4-4 at home.

Although their games have been close, Northern Iowa has found a way at the end of the ball game. Not sure they need to do so here, but I feel good about them finishing tough.  

Dave’s Pick: Northern Iowa -2

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread at cbbplace.com.

Indiana State (4-19, 2-10) at Illinois State (19-4, 8-4)

Line: Illinois State -16

Indiana State lost another one on the road Wednesday against Wichita State 58-64. The loss was the 10th out of the Sycamores' last 11 contests. The lone victory in the stretch was a 75-70 home victory against Illinois State. Apparently Indiana State only gets up for games against the top two teams in the conference.

Illinois State was able to defeat Southern Illinois this week and maintain second place in the conference. The Redbirds were 19-for-19 from the free throw line but shot poorly everywhere else.

ATS

Indiana State is 8-13 against the spread, including 5-5 on the road.

Indiana State is 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 matchups against Illinois State.

Illinois State is 10-9 against the spread, including 6-4 at home.

I guess if you look only at the records you can make an argument for a 16-point spread. But dig any deeper like we do, and this is an easy one.

Dave’s Pick: Indiana State +16

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread at cbbplace.com.