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College Hoops Picks Feb. 4, 2009: Wichita State @ Indiana State

Feb 4, 2009

Wichita State Shockers (4-7, 10-12) at Indiana State Sycamores (2-9, 4-18)

Wednesday, Feb. 4—7:00 PM EST
Line: Pick


In the Sycamores' (2-9, 4-18) four wins this season, two of them have been in OT, and the other two were by a combined eight points. Some of their games have been hard-fought battles to the end (the lost by four to conference-leading Northern Iowa), while others have seen less than stellar efforts put forth (19 point loss to Drake).

The Shockers (4-7, 10-12) have lived up to their name this season, albeit in the wrong way at times. After starting out conference play in an 0-6 hole, Wichita State has shocked the MVC by winning four of their last five. These victories have been over some of the better teams within the MVC—they defeated Creighton and Illinois State, who are both tied for second right now, and then Evansville and Drake, who are in fifth and sixth, respectively.

Line: Pick

Wichita State ATS: 7-10
Indiana State ATS: 8-12

In the last ten times these two teams have faced off, Wichita State leads the series 6-4.

The Shockers have played a tough schedule this year, and they have played it well (although their record wouldn't tell you that). They lost to Georgetown by eight, upset Siena by two, lost to Michigan State by eight, and lost to Texas Tech by three—all within the span of a week.

Wichita State is on a roll right now. Indiana State is not about to slow them down.

Ryan's Pick: Wichita State

*This article is also featured on CBBPlace.com*

*All statistics for this article have come from StatSheet.com*

BracketBuster Schedule Breakdown: Butler-Davidson Highlights Event

Feb 3, 2009

The schedule for the BracketBusters weekend was announced Feb. 2.  The mid-major matchups will include a few high-profile games and a dozen others that will interest only guys like Joe Lunardi and small East Coast campuses.

No. 22 Utah State (21-1) will play St. Mary's (18-3).  WAC member Utah State has played two quality opponents and beaten one.  Nineteen other wins over garbage have given the Aggies a national ranking.  The WCC's St. Mary's has wins over Oregon, Southern Illinois, and Providence.  However, the Gaels have lost two straight (though both on the road.)  St. Mary's College has faced a much stiffer schedule and has experience from previous successful seasons.

The Butler Bulldogs (19-2) will take on the Davidson Wildcats (18-3).  Though No. 11 Butler lost just as the schedule was announced, this will still be the highlight of the event, as ESPN nary misses an opportunity to televise Stephen Curry.  Butler has already beaten Xavier, while this will be the Wildcats' last opportunity for a quality win and to earn a national ranking again.  Butler's third-ranked defense will shut down Davidson's one-dimensional attack.

Virginia Commonwealth (16-6) will play at Nevada (13-8).  VCU's largest loss of the season came against Oklahoma by 11 points.  The Commonwealth is nine points from an unblemished CAA record.  The Wolf Pack has been up and down this season.  They have lost more than one would expect from recent Nevada teams and are nearly out of the WAC race.

Illinois State (18-4) challenges Niagara (17-6).  The Redbirds began the season 14-0 but have played .500 basketball in the eight games since.  The MVC is the toughest mid-major conference from top to bottom.  The top tier of the MAAC has fared well recently; Niagara and Siena have been in this situation before.

Northern Iowa (16-6) plays at MAAC-leading Siena (18-5).  Northern Iowa has won 10 straight and owns one of the nation's longest winning streaks.  However, in non-conference play, the Panthers lost to Iowa State, Iowa, UIC, Wyoming, and Marquette by 30.  Siena is the real deal.  The Saints have lost just five games to five blue-chip opponents.  They are undefeated in conference play.  This is the most compelling matchup of unranked teams.

George Mason (15-6) visits Creighton (17-6).  This is a classic matchup of NCAA Cinderellas from years past. It also pits teams from two of the best mid-major conferences, the Colonial and Missouri Valley.  During this inconsistent season, the Bluejays knocked off the Dayton Flyers.

Green Bay (18-6) will travel to the Pacific coast to challenge Long Beach State (11-9).  Green Bay knocked off Butler and holds second in the deep Horizon League.  However, the Phoenix let a home game slip away against Oakland and overall played poorly in a weak non-conference schedule.  Additionally, Green Bay will not be accustomed to playing so far from home. 

Northeastern (15-6) takes a trip to Wright State (13-9).  The Raiders are one of the hottest teams included in BracketBusters. They have won 13 of their last 16. WSU has lost just twice at home and not since Nov. 24.  Northeastern, surprisingly, is leading the CAA, besting squads like VCU and George Mason.  WSU and Northeastern have a common opponent: South Florida.  The Raiders won by 17 and the Huskies lost by 18.  Northeastern also has losses to Rhode Island and Boston U.  The Huskies are frauds.

Boise State (15-6) will travel to Portland State (15-7).  This matchup features two third-place teams from West Coast(-ish) conferences.  Portland has lost to some bad teams, like Hampton and Cal Poly, but the Vikings defeated Gonzaga and Portland.  The Pilots then blew out the St. Mary's Gaels.  Are the Vikings a better team than the Zags, or did Gonzaga play an awful game amidst a grueling schedule?

Miami (12-7) will make the short drive to Evansville (14-7).  Evansville is the fourth squad representing the powerful MVC.  The MAC is clearly down this season, but Miami has a very respectable RPI and a stingy defense.  Evansville is a good team, but not nearly the class of the Missouri Valley. 

The Liberty Flames (16-7) will be hosted at Old Dominion (13-8).  Liberty hopes to duplicate the moderate success that fellow Big South member Winthrop had last season.  The Monarchs fared well in a below-average non-conference schedule but have struggled in the CAA.  This might be the least exciting of all the games.

Hofstra (14-8) at Fairfield (14-9).  A CAA victory over Northeastern is the only bright spot for Hofstra.  The Pride was blown out in its two biggest games early this season.  Fairfield has struggled against MAAC bottom dwellers Canisius (three points), Marist (five), and Loyola (three).

Buffalo (14-5) travels across New York to Vermont (16-6.) It has been a banner year for Buffalo athletics.  Perennially doormats, the football team won the conference and the basketball team is currently first. Vermont is currently tied for first in the traditionally single-bid America East Conference.  A-East plus MAC equals snooze.

Expect the high-profile Missouri Valley to win half its contests, the Horizon to go 3-0, the Metro Atlantic 2-1, and the Colonial to struggle with just one win in five opportunities.

The BracketBusters games will take place on Feb. 20 and 21.

Dave's College Basketball Picks, Feb. 3: Northern Iowa at Bradley

Feb 2, 2009

Northern Iowa (16-6, 10-1) at Bradley (13-9, 7-4)


Line: Bradley -2

Northern Iowa is coming off a less than impressive four-point victory against Indiana State. You can be sure the rest of the league will be watching film to see how Indiana State was able to cause so much trouble for the Panthers. Northern Iowa has won three out of its last four games by five points or less, one of those being at home against Bradley back on the 21st.

Bradley fell out of second place in the conference with a 65-69 defeat at Illinois State. No disgrace in losing to the Redbirds on the road. Winners of their last two home games, the Braves will need improved shooting to get it done against the league leader.

ATS

Northern Iowa is 9-9 ATS, including 5-5 on the road.

Bradley is 11-7 ATS, including 6-3 at home.

Bradley is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 matchups against Northern Iowa.

Northern Iowa has been just good enough to get by lately. That may work against Indiana State, but Bradley should be able to close the deal. The Panthers are due another conference hiccup, and this may be the spot.

Dave’s Pick: Bradley -2

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread at cbbplace.com.

Dave's College Basketball Picks, Feb. 1: Missouri State at Creighton

Jan 31, 2009

Missouri State (9-12, 2-8) at Creighton (16-6, 6-4)


Line: Creighton -13.5

Missouri State suffered an 11-point loss on the road Thursday to Southern Illinois. It was the Bears sixth straight road loss and seventh out of eight opportunities this season. Missouri State is just not able to score. While the defense is allowing just 61.7 points a game (best in the Missouri Valley Conference), the offense isn’t even reaching that (60.9 points on average).

A pre season favorite, Creighton is seeing its regular season title hopes fade away. With Northern Iowa’s victory on Saturday, the Blue Jays find themselves 3.5 games out of the top spot. Having already lost once to the Panthers, Creighton is positioning itself now for post season play.

ATS

Missouri State is 7-13 ATS, including 3-5 on the road

Creighton is 10-8 ATS, including 4-5 at home

Creighton is 8-2 ATS against Missouri State in their last 10 matchups

Creighton has not covered this amount of points yet at home in the conference season. With the expected low-scoring game, 13.5 becomes much larger.

Dave’s Pick: Missouri State +13.5

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread at cbbplace.com.

Dave's College Basketball Picks, Jan. 31: Bradley at Illinois State

Jan 30, 2009

Bradley (13-8, 7-3) at Illinois State (17-4, 6-4)

Line: Illinois State -9

Bradley enters a crucial 2 game stretch starting Saturday on the road against 3rd place Illinois State. If the Braves can navigate past the Red Birds, they would be in position to at least come within a game of Northern Iowa when they host the Panthers on Tuesday. The remaining schedule after Northern Iowa is not a particularly difficult one for the Braves. Bradley has won their last two games, but both came at home against lesser teams (Indiana State and Wichita State).

Illinois State also has their eyes on the league title, but faces a tougher climb down three games. If they fall just short, they will think back to the 4 point loss suffered Wednesday at Northern Iowa. The Red Birds made just two free throws and were not able to hold onto a halftime lead.

ATS-

Bradley is 10-7 ATS including 4-4 on the road

Bradley is 8-2 ATS against Illinois State in their last 10 match ups

Illinois State is 9-8 ATS including 6-3 at home

Illinois State has had great success at home this season, but Bradley has been just as good on the road. The Braves are 3-2 straight up on the road in the Missouri Valley, and their two losses were by a combined 11 points. I like Bradley to cover here and contend for an outright victory.

Dave’s pick: Bradley +9

See all of Dave's College Basketball Picks Against the Spread at cbbplace.com

Previewing and Predicting The Most Important Mid-Major Games Of The Weekend

Jan 30, 2009

There are multitudes of mid-major games this weekend, but three matchups have the potential to make or break some teams' chances of winning their conference. 

Virginia Commonwealth (15-6, 8-2 CAA) @ Hofstra (14-7, 6-4 CAA) 

After losing to Northeastern on Tuesday night, Virginia Commonwealth travels to Hofstra for a must-win game on Saturday. The Rams are still 8-2 and in second place in the CAA, but a loss at Hofstra and a Northeastern victory over Delaware would put Anthony Grant's team in a hole that they don't want to be in at this point in the season. 

VCU is definitely the superior team in this game, but Hofstra is not a guaranteed win for any team in the CAA—especially when the match is in Hempstead, where the Pride are 6-2 this season. 

Hofstra is one of the best rebounding teams in the whole country, averaging 42 boards per game, while VCU is relatively weak in that part of the game. Other than Larry Sanders and Kirill Pishchanilkov, the Rams don't have any reputable rebounders. You can definitely expect the rebounding edge to be in Hofstra's favor, but rebounding won't be the deciding factor. 

The difference in this game will be shooting. 

VCU only has one player who shoots under 40 percent from the field, but he is not one of the key Rams.

Compare that to the Pride, whose top three scorers all shoot beneath 40 percent. Leading scorer Charles Jenkins is able to put points on the board, but his 38.9 percent field goal percentage really defines how he plays. He takes the bulk of Hofstra's shots, a lot of which would be categorized as ill-advised, but that's the way the Hofstra offense—which scores 65 points per game—runs. 

Hofstra has been plagued by poor foul shooting throughout the season. A free-throw percentage of 66.4 percent leaves room for loads of improvement. Jenkins, who connects on 79.3 percent of his foul shots, is the only member of Tom Pecora's team who shoots over 65 percent. 

Don't be surprised if Eric Maynor doesn't put up his average of 22 points. The senior point guard doesn't like playing against Hofstra. It took him six games to crack 20 against the Pride—he scored 21 in VCU's eight point victory earlier in January—and he has a career average near 16 points per game against Hofstra. 

However, Maynor has been on a hot streak. He's averaging 28 points per game over the last three games.

Expect the margin of victory to be similar to their last meeting. VCU wins, 70-59. 

Bradley (13-8, 7-3 MVC) @ Illinois State (17-4, 6-4 MVC)

Bradley handed Illinois State its first loss on Jan. 6 en route to a 4-0 start to conference play. Since then, the Braves are 3-3 and Illinois State, who once had everything going their way, has lost to some weak opponents. 

If either team wants to keep up with a red hot Northern Iowa crew, this game comes as a must-win. Obviously, there can only be one winner. 

The two reasons that the Redbirds lost the first match of the season series were three-point shooting and foul-shooting. Shooting 6-26 from long range is unacceptable, but the majority of the blame can be attributed to the Redbirds for taking bad shots.

The foul-shooting was not totally their fault because Bradley only committed a total of eight team fouls, which led to a meager four Illinois State foul shots. One thing you can expect tomorrow is that the Redbirds will make more of an attempt to get into the lane and get fouled. 

Also, look for Osiris Eldridge to break out of his little slump. It's been seven games since the MVC's preseason Player of the Year totaled 20 points, but his best game in that span was his 17 point performance in the loss at Bradley. 

The Redbirds are a perfect 12-0 at home, while Bradley is 4-5 on the road. 

Illinois State will avenge their loss with a 66-56 victory. 

Saint Mary's (18-2, 5-1 WCC) @ Portland (14-7, 5-1 WCC)

Saint Mary's suffered a huge blow when Patty Mills broke his hand in last night's loss at Gonzaga. The Gaels' leading scorer will be out for a month, and Randy Bennett needs all of his players to step up—the Gaels have 18.7 points per game to make up. 

Bennett would have liked to have an easier first game without Mills—maybe a game against San Francisco or Loyola Marymount. Portland is not an easy win, especially without Mills. 

You've got to think that Portland, at home and on a five game winning streak, has the advantage against the Mill-less Gaels, but don't expect the Gaels to go down without a fight. 

Nonetheless, the Pilots will be able to navigate to victory while the Gaels try to figure out how to replace Mills' role. 

Final score: Portland 72, Saint Mary's 66 

An Apology to Creighton: You Deserved to Be Near the Top of My Mid-Major Poll

Nov 20, 2008

Towards the end of October, I published my preseason Mid-Major Top 25. While I was researching teams, one of the major factors that weighed in on the ranks was where conference coaches picked teams to finish in their league.

I eventually reached one of the top mid-major conferences, the Missouri Valley Conference, and saw Creighton picked to finish fourth. However, I did not notice that this site showed last season's preseason coaches' poll.

As a result Creighton was left out of my Top 25.

A few days after the article was published, some angry Creighton fans commented, asking where their Blue Jays were. They claimed that MVC coaches picked Creighton to best the conference.

I went back and researched again to find that Creighton was indeed picked to beat out Southern Illinois, Illinois State, Drake, and Bradley for the MVC's regular season title.

I want to apologize for my negligence towards Creighton, and hope that this article of praise earns the forgiveness of Blue Jays fans.

So, yes, Creighton is the near-unanimous favorite to win the MVC.

The Blue Jays started the season at home against New Mexico from the Mountain West Conference. Although the Lobos were picked to finish fifth in their conference, the Mountain West is a level above mid-major and has two teams, UNLV and Brigham Young, who are poised to make lengthy tournament runs.

Creighton overcame a nine-point deficit with under four minutes to play, and went on a 19-3 to finish off the Lobos, 82-77.

Sophomore guard P'Allen Stinnett, who was named to the MVC first team, scored a career-high of 30 points for the Blue Jays.

Stinnett averaged 12.6 points per game as a freshman, and shot 31.7 percent of his three-point attempts. The extended arc did not daunt the sophomore in the game against New Mexico. He connected on three of his six attempts from three.

Stinnett has the majority of last year's production to back him up.

Senior Booker Woodfox and junior Cavel Witter are two guards who each averaged about nine points last season.

Woodfox, who scored 26 points in the season opener, shot 42.6 percent from behind the arc last season.

Witter came off the bench to score six points.

Coach Dana Altman brought in a two-time junior college transfer, Justin Carter, to complete his four guard starting lineup. Josh Dotzler, who averaged 3.4 points and 3.6 assists per game in 21.3 minutes per game last season, was the fourth guard in the starting lineup.

Kenny Lawson, Jr. is the starting center. The sophomore averaged 5.9 points and 4.2 rebounds in only 15 minutes of action as a freshman. Now a starter, his minutes and numbers will increase.

The starting lineup is solid, and Witter provides scoring off the bench.

Altman is arguably the best coach in the MVC. Now in his 15th season at Creighton, Altman has averaged over 20 wins per season, with a 282-152 record. The Blue Jays are lucky to be coached by such a talented man.

Altman will help his skilled team through the season with his experience. After all, he has taken his team to a postseason tournament in each of the last 11 seasons.

Creighton's biggest non-conference tests come against Oral Roberts, Nebraska, Saint Joseph's, and Dayton.

Nebraska and Saint Joseph's will be the toughest, especially on the road, but Creighton can definitely upend either team.

By the time conference play rolls around, the Blue Jays will need to worry about Southern Illinois and Illinois State.

The Salukis brought in some top-notch recruits, and the Redbirds have MVC Preseason Player of the Year, Osiris Eldridge.

Almost every MVC coach thought these teams would be mere bumps along the path for the Blue Jays, but only time will tell.

For now, I wish I could squeeze Creighton into the top 10 of my mid-major poll.

NCAA Hoops: What's YOUR Favorite March Madness Moment?

Mar 24, 2008

While watching the first two rounds of March Madness this weekend, I got in the mood to think back to all of my favorite Cinderella stories and buzzer beaters. 

One of my favorite aspects of college hoops is the fact that there are over 300 Division I Men's Basketball programs. Moreover, the fan base of each team is not always as geographically finite as the boundary of your average professional sports franchise. 

For instance, I am a Syracuse Orange fan because of family ties, despite growing up during a great stretch for more local favorites (UMass and UConn). 

Don't be afraid to add heart wrenching stories of defeat. Anything goes. Whether you're a George Mason fan or alumnus of Florida.

Whether you have celebrated recent success, or your team is going through a drought, and March forces you to go through your own catalogue of mental highlights from yesteryear... we all have a favorite moment, story, or team, that they recall every year, around this time.

Now's your chance to share your favorite college hoop memories with the rest of us.  This experiment will only be as strong as the contributions.  So, comment early and reply often. 

I'd love to get a dialogue going about some of our favorite moments (or in some cases, least favorite moments).

Now for our Disclaimer:

I know we sometimes get heated when discussing our favorite/most hated teams, but let's try to keep it respectful and offer solid commentary when posting. 

Please refrain from posts that simply state, "Duke sucks" (whether I may personally agree or not) or "UCLA rocks." If they do not add constructively to the conversation, then please leave them out. 

I'm not saying we can't sling a little mud at the programs we "hate", but make sure to add some content to the argument as well. 

Get creative—tell us where you were, how it happened, how you celebrated.  Anything you'd like, but be sure to add to the conversation and give specifics (years are especially helpful if at all possible).

College Basketball: Gotta Love Those Mid-Majors!

Mar 19, 2008

Just a score or two: University of Akron 65, Florida State 60. Southern Illinois 69, Oklahoma State 53. Creighton 74, URI 73. Syracuse roughing up Robert Morris, 87-81?

I know its just the NIT, but do the BCS & "Big State U" teams only give their best in the "Big Dance"? It makes me sick to hear the sanctimonious posturing and the condescending attitude of the Network "talking heads" and "former" Coaches trumpet the notion that the A-10, Missouri Valley, MAC, WCC, and others are "nice little leagues" made up of schools in the flyover states, that at times really play well and are able to defeat the "heavyweights" of the Big Ten, Big East, Pac-10, ACC, SEC, and Big XII on rare occasions when one of their "Powers" has a "down year", a "bad break," or a player scandal.

Most of the successful "Mid-Majors" will play "anybody, anywhere, anytime" and offer deserving opponents a home-and-home series to be fair about it. Until the last decade or so most of their players were not as skilled, athletic, or jumbo sized as the "factory" schools. Their student/athletes did however, stay around to gain experience, meld into the college experience, and graduate. Coaches were valued and judged by their knowledge of the game, teaching ability, and graduation rate rather than their wins & losses.

The two "P's" population and parity combined with the increase from 32 to 64 teams in the NCAA D-I basketball tourney made it possible for smaller schools to game fame and entice players. and the term "Mid-Majors came about. The exposure that Gonzaga University gained when reaching the Elite Eight and George Mason going to the Final Four, for example, are just two of the more well-known achievements of the mids.

The play of the Butlers, Davidsons, Southern Illinois, Creightons, Valpo's, St. Joes, and others have shown sports fans that "David slaying Goliath" happens far more than one suspects. Gonzaga is in the "dance" for the tenth straight year. How many of the BCS schools can make that claim?

So sit back and enjoy watching the greatest two weeks in sports, as all sixty-four teams start out with a clean slate and teams like, Butler, Drake, Gonzaga, St, Joes, San Diego, Davidson and others proudly carry the "Mid-Major" banner to more glory. Success and luv to the Schools I had to leave out for lack of space, poor memory, or individual preference.