Niagara Basketball

I will try to post MAAC Power Rankings every Thursday from here on out. These rankings have nothing to do with how I think these teams will finish the year. It is just what they have done to this point.

1. Niagara Purple Eagles

Record: 8-4, 2-0 MAAC

RPI: 75

There were high expectations for the Purple Eagles after talk of receiving an at-large bid to the 2009 NCAA tournament. They did not please their fans with the way they started the season. Niagara held a late lead on Auburn in their season opener, but blew the game late and lost by four points. In this game, star guard Tyrone Lewis left with a foot injury. He would miss four games.

Niagara went on to win their next four games with only one of those games being against a good team (Central Florida). Their record dropped to 5-3 with losses to Austin Peay and Akron. Now the Purple Eagles are getting hot with three wins in their last four games.

2. Siena Saints

Record: 7-4, 2-0 MAAC

RPI: 57

The Saints were picked to be one of the top mid-majors this season, almost like the next Butler or Gonzaga. They were put in Sports Illustrated's Preseason Top 20. The way that the Saints have played so far is simply disappointing.

Siena have been able to dominate lower competition, but when matched up with better teams, they have failed to win. Their RPI stands at 61, the best in the MAAC. On Wednesday, they beat Rider, securing a spot as No. 2.

3. Fairfield Stags

Record: 8-3, 2-0 MAAC

RPI: 144

The Stags have surprised everybody this year. All three of their losses have come on the road (Maryland, Hofstra, Rhode Island), and two of them have been in close games. They have not beaten any outstanding teams, but they have dominated most teams at their level or below. 

4. Rider Broncs

Record: 8-6, 1-1 MAAC

RPI: 143

Rider caught the nation's eye with a win over Mississippi State at the season's start. Since then, they have struggled against good competition. Other than the win against Mississippi State, the Broncs' best win is against Saint Joe's. They have gotten demolished by Virginia, Kentucky, and Siena; they have lost close games to La Salle and Rutgers. There is still hope for Rider to be one of the top teams in the MAAC later in the season, but they don't have enough on their résumé right now.

5. Iona Gaels

Record: 8-4, 0-2 MAAC

RPI: 150

Iona was picked to finish ninth in the MAAC. It is looking like there is almost no chance of that happening. The Gaels won their first three games before dropping close games to Florida State and Baylor in the Old Spice Classic. They then beat Creighton to take seventh place.

They dropped a heartbreaker to Saint Peter's in the conference opener, and then played well with Siena, despite losing 73-60. Since the loss to Siena, they have four straight, including a win at Providence.

6. Loyola (MD) Greyhounds

Record: 6-5, 0-2 MAAC

RPI: 171

The Greyhounds secured the sixth rank with a win at Indiana on Tuesday. Loyola led by as much as 24 in the first half. The Hoosiers came back to take a lead in the final three minutes. The Greyhounds did not stop fighting and won 72-67.

They also have a big win against Morgan State.

7. Manhattan Jaspers

Record: 6-5, 1-1 MAAC

RPI: 157

The Jaspers were red hot at the end of November and into early December, having a stretch where they won four out of five games. Following a win at Canisius, the Jaspers lost to Hofstra and Morgan State. Last Saturday, then beat Long Island University to end their slide. 

8. Canisius Golden Griffins

Record: 6-6, 1-1 MAAC

RPI: 175

Canisius lost four straight after winning their first game of the month against Loyola (MD). After that streak, they beat Southern Miss and New Orleans to  bring their overall record to .500. 

9. Saint Peter's Peacocks

Record: 5-6, 1-1 MAAC

RPI: 229

The Peacocks have come so close to winning so many times, but they have struggled to finish off their opponents. Their best win is at Iona. 

10. Marist Red Foxes:

Record: 0-9, 0-2 MAAC

RPI: 346

The Red Foxes have been atrocious this year. All hope was lost when Villanova transfer Casiem Drummond was declared ineligible for the second semester. Marist's RPI is second to last in the country, only to Houston Baptist.

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Troubling news came out of Niagara in the middle of this week: senior Bilal Benn could miss about one month following a supposed knee surgery.

The school would not disclose precise information, but the director of athletics communication said it was a "minor procedure" that would be "short term." The Niagara Gazette reported the details "according to a source."

Assuming Benn, who is averaging 15.6 points, 11 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.9 steals per game, is indeed sidelined for a month, the Purple Eagles will struggle.

The scoring aspect of Benn's game is not irreplaceable because Demetrius Williamson, a scoring senior, will replace Benn in the lineup. However, with the Villanova transfer out, Niagara, whose main concern entering the season was its lack of a big man, loses its only consistent rebounding force.

Consequently, the Purple Eagles lost by a meager six points to Buffalo in their first game without Benn. But, they probably would have won if they had a reliable rebounder available—they were out-rebounded 45-29 by the Bulls.

Had Benn played, the rebounding margin would have decreased and Niagara could have won the game.

It is difficult to predict the impact of Benn's loss on his team because of the nebulous timetable for his return. He'll definitely miss the rest of the OOC schedule, but after Niagara fell to Auburn, Austin Peay, and Akron, at-large hopes vanished for the Purple Eagles. Regardless, they need wins against Illinois State, St. Bonaventure, and Air Force to bolster their postseason resume.

If about a month means a few days less than a month, Benn might not miss any conference games. However, if it means a month or slightly longer, he'll miss two crucial contests against Fairfield and Siena, two teams who flaunt dominant rebounders.

At this point in the season, conference games are most important to Niagara's fate. Therefore, the Purple Eagles really need Benn to return by January.

Photo from Niagara Gazette

After a 26 win season and a second place finish in the MAAC, Niagara is no longer under the radar and returns all but one player from last year's successful squad.

Unfortunately, 6'10" Benson Egemonye, an imposing low-post presence, is the one graduate, leaving coach Joe Mihalich to find a replacement. The Purple Eagles don't have a single experienced player to fill Egemonye's void and the role will likely be given to either Andre "Scooter" Gillette or Eric Williams, both of whom are 6'8" freshmen.

Until Niagara works out its big man situation, analysts will have an easy time picking conference foe Siena ahead of the Purple Eagles—the Saints' frontcourt, consisting of Alex Franklin, Ryan Rossiter, and O.D. Anosike, is likely the best overall frontcourt in the league. However, Niagara has the best backcourt in the MAAC, which will enable them to compete with Siena whether or not a low-post presence is found.

Senior shooting guard Tyrone Lewis, who led the MAAC with 91 steals and also averaged 16.7 points per game as a junior, is the offensive leader. Although his shooting is sometimes erratic, Lewis is Niagara's go-to-scorer. He'll need to improve his 33.7 percent field goal percentage in order to maximize his effectiveness.

Senior Bilal Benn, a 6'5" versatile guard/forward, is Niagara's best overall player. Although his height indicates he should play the two or three, Benn spent a lot of time at power forward last season because of team needs and his tremendous rebounding ability. He averaged 13.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 2.4 steals per game and shot 43 percent from the floor. His range extends beyond the arc, as evidenced by his 31.3 percent conversion rate from deep.

On almost any other MAAC team, Lewis and Benn would be under so much pressure to perform their best every night. However, Niagara's Rob Garrison and Anthony Nelson can pick up the slack if the rim is unforgiving for either Lewis or Benn.

Garrison, a senior who transferred from UConn for his final two collegiate seasons, was essential to Niagara's success last season. The 6'2" guard averaged 10.9 points and 2.5 assists per game and proved capable of posting high scoring totals—he contributed over 15 points 11 times last season.

Second to Siena's Ronald Moore in assist-to-turnover ratio, Nelson is a skilled point guard. He typically won't impress you with point totals, but his ability to set up his teammates is rare in the MAAC. Nelson led Niagara with 5.5 assist per game.

Mihalich implemented a nine man rotation last season, but Demetrius Williamson was the only bench player to receive over 10 minutes per game. Williamson, who was the MAAC's best sixth man a year ago, will likely be Niagara's first man off the bench again.

Mihalich is arguably the best coach in the MAAC, although most would give the title to Siena's Fran McCaffery. In his 11th year at the helm of the Purple Eagles, Mihalich assembled a challenging but winnable schedule to help bolster Niagara's tournament resume.

The Purple Eagles open their season at Auburn, who is projected as one of the SEC's worst teams. However, a win at an SEC team can only help the resume. Games at Akron and Illinois State will be tough, but the Purple Eagles should come out on top. Depending on how they fare against Air Force in the Sun Bowl Tournament, the Purple Eagles might play host UTEP.

Expect Niagara to win the majority of their non-conference games and head into MAAC play with a lot of confidence. The Purple Eagles have their weaknesses down low, but they will be hard to defeat in the MAAC.

Projected Finish: 24-6, 14-4 MAAC

As Jameson Fleming wrote, a handful of mid-major stars have seen their tournament hopes vanish this weekend. While Siena doesn't have a stud like Davidson's Stephen Curry, Tennessee-Martin's Lester Hudson, or VMI's Holmes twins, the Saints have a deep lineup of quality mid-major players who, with a win tonight, could live up to their season-long expectation: a berth in the 2009 NCAA Tournament.

If the Saints falter in tonight's MAAC Championship against Niagara, Fran McCaffery's squad will be added to the list of mid-major dissapointments.

Coached by Joe Mihalich, who is the most likable coach in the MAAC, Niagara has had its most successful season of the decade. At 26-7, 14-4 MAAC, the Purple Eagles split the season series with the Saints and finished a mere two games behind the regular-season champs.

The two finalists for the MAAC crown are so even that tonight's game is nearly impossible to predict.

The following is my breakdown of the two teams.

Offense

Both teams have six prominent offensive threats, but percentages make Siena the more effective offensive team. The Saints shoot 47.4 percent from the floor and 33.4 percent from deep compared to Niagara's 42 percent and 31 percent respectively.

Despite the disparity in percentages, both programs score about 77 points per game.

Note that Niagara's leading scorer, Tyrone Lewis, has converted on a meager 10 of 51 field goals in three games at the Times Union Center this season.

Edge: Siena

Defense

Again, both teams are equal in this aspect of the game, but Niagara is slightly better. Bilal Benn, who posted 20 points and 19 rebounds in last night's semifinal win against Rider, led the MAAC in rebounds per game. Benn, accompanied by teammate Tyrone Lewis, topped the MAAC in steals per game. As a team, the Purple Eagles held opponents to 40.4 percent field goal shooting compared to Siena's 44 percent.

Ryan Rossiter is the league's second-best shot blocker, and Kenny Hasbrouck is notorious for playing tight defense. However, the Purple Eagles are deeper on the defensive end.

Edge: Niagara

Bench

The two best sixth men in the league will come off of the bench tonight to give their team a boost of energy.

Siena's Clarence Jackson averaged 8.8 points in 15 minutes per game and was extolled as the MAAC Sixth Man of the Year. Niagara's Demetrius Williamson played 20 minutes per game and averaged 7.7 points.

Fran McCaffery has shown more trust in his bench than Joe Mihalich has—four Saints have averaged at least 10 minutes per game off the bench.

Jackson is the superior sixth man and the Saints have the deeper bench.

Edge: Siena

Coach

Fran McCaffery and Joe Mihalich are the MAAC's supreme coaches. They have each shown that they can recruit, enhance their players' skills, and coach a basketball game better than any other MAAC coach.

McCaffery's temper has the potential to get his team into trouble—he is not afraid of the referees or of being whistled for a tech.

Although the Purple Eagles have lost a few close games this year, Mihalich is the more reliable coach.

Edge: Niagara

Conclusion

Ever since MAAC play commenced, I have had Niagara slated as my pick to win the league. However, I forgot to factor in Siena's home-court advantage in the conference tournament. At home, the Saints are 16-0. Niagara didn't even resemble a threat to the Saints' unblemished home record when they travelled to Albany—the Saints easily handled the Purple Eagles, 82-65.

I think this one will be a tighter game, but the home-court advantage will have a large role in deciding the winner.

Final Score: Siena 86, Niagara 82

Hi, this is Ronald Weintraub. Here are my women's MAAC championship picks for today's games.

Game One: Canisius vs. Niagara—Canisius wins

Game Two: Fairfield vs. Siena—upset, Siena wins

Game Three: Iona vs. St. Peter's—upset, Iona wins

Game Four: Marist vs. Loyola—Marist wins

Semifinals: Saturday

Game One: Canisius vs. Siena—Canisius wins

Game Two: Marist vs. Iona—Marist wins

Championship game: Sunday

Marist vs. Canisius—upset, Canisius wins 70-69

Now the men's games.

First round

Game One: Canisius vs. Loyola—Loyola wins

Game Two: Iona vs. Marist—upset, Marist wins

Saturday games

Game One: Manhattan vs. Fairfield—Manhattan wins 74-69

Game Two: Siena vs. Loyola—Siena wins

Game Three: Niagara vs. Marist—Niagara wins

Game Four: Rider vs. St. Peter's—upset, St. Peter's wins

Semifinals: Sunday

Game One: Manhattan vs. Siena—upset, Manhattan wins 72-70

Game Two: Niagara vs. St. Peter's—Niagara wins

Championship: Monday night

Manhattan vs. Niagara—upset Manhattan wins 74-72

Good luck to all the teams this weekend.

This weekend, March 6 through March 9, the teams in the MAAC will play in a tournament in Albany, New York for their chance to go to the national tournament. Usually, the MAAC only has one team representing on the national stage. 

SIENA

The preseason favorite in the MAAC was Siena, and they have lived up to expectations. They went 16-2 in the MAAC and 23-7 overall. Their only two losses in the MAAC were on the road to third place Rider and second place Niagara.

Siena is such a dangerous team that can dominate anywhere on the court. They have three players that average double-digit points per game and two players that average 7.4 rebounds per game. Senior guard Kenny Hasbrouck leads the team with 14.8 PPG and 1.9 steals per game. Siena also gets its points from Edwin Ubiles, who averages 14.7 PPG, and Alex Franklin, who averages 13.8 PPG and 7.4 RPG.

This team has a perfect balance of an underneath presence and a threat from three-point land. Both Franklin and Ryan Rossiter average 7.4 RPG, while Hasbrouck is shooting 37 percent from three-point land.

Siena has a relatively easy road to the finals, especially in the first round. They will face the winner of the Loyola-Canisius game, which are the eighth and ninth seeds of the MAAC. Siena has won all four games between the two possible first round challengers. I do not see an upset against Siena in round one.

In the second round they will be playing the winner of the Fairfield-Manhattan game; both teams failed to beat Siena once this season.

One of the biggest aspects going in Siena's favor is the fact that the tournament is in Albany, just miles away from Siena's campus. The home crowd and high play against the MAAC makes them the favorite to win and go to the national tournament.

NIAGARA

Niagara finished second in the MAAC this season, going 14-4 in the MAAC and 24-7 overall. This is going to be Siena's largest threat to the national tournament. They have performed well against Siena this season, handing Siena one of their two MAAC losses in a 100-85 offensive explosion for the Purple Eagles.

While Siena's stats are impressive, Niagara's are even better. The Purple Eagles have four players that average double-digit points per game. The player to watch for the Purple Eagles is Bilal Benn. He averages 14.1 PPG and 9.1 RPG. He provides a strong senior presence capable of doing a lot of damage. In the 100-85 win over Siena he put up 21 points, 12 rebounds, and three steals.

Their first round matchup is fairly easy like Siena. They will face the winner of the Iona-Marist game, which are the seventh seed and the MAAC's worst, 10th seed Marist.

Marist really only has one major threat, and that is the senior forward Ryan Schneider. He averages 16.1 PPG and 8.2 RPG. He is unique for the MAAC because this conference is not known for its three-point shooting, but Schneider is the exception. This season he is 84-for-227 from behind the arc, making him a 37 percent three-point shooter. He is also an 87 percent free throw shooter, which is one of the best in the MAAC.

The only other player in double figures for points is David Devezin, who averages 10.2 PPG. He contributes in assists, leading the Red Foxes at 4.1 APG. Besides Devezin and Schneider, Marist doesn't have many threats, which landed them the last seed in the MAAC and the tournament.

RIDER

After the top two powerhouses of the MAAC comes Rider, who was 12-6 in the MAAC and 18-11 overall. They are somewhat of a sleeper team because much of the attention will be on Niagara and Siena as the projected final game contenders. The Broncs will be facing St. Peters in the first round, the No. 6 seed in the MAAC.

The Broncs are led by junior Ryan Thompson, who averages 17.7 PPG and 6.3 RPG. Thompson has one of his best games against the Peacocks in the regular season, posting 25 points and six rebounds in a 78-67 win at St. Peters.

Since the Broncs are overshadowed by the top two seeds in the MAAC, it makes them somewhat underdogs, but they shouldn't be underestimated. They beat Niagara and Siena, both games at home. So it is not like Rider cannot compete with the fierce top two, but they will have to be at the top of their game to win this tournament.

FAIRFIELD

The last two teams that have a chance to win are Fairfield and Manhattan.

Fairfield was ranked second in the MAAC before the season, but they went 9-9 in the MAAC and 16-14 overall. Fairfield has had the strangest season of any team in the MAAC. After losing key players Anthony Johnson to blood clots in the upper chest and Greg Nero to back spasms, they also lost the leader of the team Jon Han because of differences with the coach Ed Cooley. The situation escalated and ended Han's season after a 65-60 loss at Manhattan.

After Han left the team, senior Herbie Allen took over as the leading guard and has been a breath of fresh air for this Stags team. Allen averaged 17.6 PPG in the last five games of the season and was the spark Fairfield needed after losing all of its key players.

Greg Nero is also going to return for the Stags, and he led the team with 12.9 PPG and 6.6 RPG. Mike Evanovich provides a threat from three-point land off the bench. Since the teams witnessed so many injuries, Evanovich has done a nice job stepping in. In the last game of the season against Rider, he had 14 points and went 4-for-10 from outside the arc.

Fairfield may be battered and bruised, but they have a lot of fight left in them. The younger players are performing like this is their third year, and if all goes well, they could potentially make a run. The only problem for the Stags is that if they win their first round matchup against Manhattan, they will have to face Siena on their home court.

MANHATTAN

Manhattan is another team that could potentially make some noise in this tournament. They will face off against the Stags of Fairfield; the two teams split the season series 1-1. Fairfield came back from being down 10 in the fourth quarter to win in the most recent meeting.

Manhattan went 9-9 in the MAAC while going 16-13 overall. The Jaspers have three players who score double digits in points, led by junior Darryl Crawford. The biggest flaw for this team is the lack of size, which results in a lack of rebounds. Chris Smith leads the Jaspers with 5.6 RPG, and he is just 6'3". Their tallest player is Laurence Jolicoeur, who is 6'9", but he only played 17 games and averaged 2.8 RPG.

Like Fairfield, Manhattan has a very rough road to the finals. Both teams are equally matched against one another but outmatched against Siena, Niagara, and even Rider. They can compete, and I expect the winner of this game to give Siena a decent run, but Siena will prevail in the end.

PREDICTION

While Siena is the early favorite, I feel Niagara is on a great run right now. They have won 10 of their last 11, including an emotional home win against Siena. They have the confidence and momentum, and I believe they will win this tournament and win a shot at the national tournament.

I think the basic premise of the play-in game is flawed. It penalizes two small schools and destroys the dream of one of those teams by not allowing them in the NCAA tournament.

The play-in game also makes for mediocre television, since America only loves the David team if they are trying to slay Goliath, not another David.

The Tuesday play-in day could be way more entertaining with one simple change:

Sixty-two teams are guaranteed a tournament slot, the final four at-large consideration teams play in a doubleheader, and the two winners finalize the bracket.

Most of the talk around tournament time is about the bubble anyway—let’s make two games where the teams control their fate.

For example, a Michigan-Rhode Island and Providence-Niagara doubleheader would be way more exciting for basketball fans, and it would give four teams the chance to prove they belong.

Of course for people following the bubble, you may be wondering why I chose Niagara for this game, since they aren’t really on anyone’s bubble. Maybe they should be.

I am pretty realistic when I write that Niagara will probably not get an at-large bid, and Siena may even have a difficult time getting one, since the MAAC is perceived as an inferior basketball conference in comparison to the SEC or even Conference USA.

This year in the SEC, LSU is the leader and Tennessee probably is getting in also. After that, do any of the teams deserve a bid?

Conference USA is the Memphis conference, with a decent UAB team, and that’s about it.

The challenge the committee has is to put the best 34 at-large teams in. Deciding which teams are most deserving of a bid is done with a lot of analysis using criteria such as road record, conference record, RPI, and last 10 games.

Let’s look at Niagara with an open mind for a moment.

Niagara has 12 road wins. They finished 14-4 in their conference. Their RPI is in the 50’s. They are 9-1 in their last 10 games. There really is only a case for Niagara if they make the MAAC tournament finals and lose to Siena in a close game.

The tournament is in Albany, making it a home game for Siena. The argument against Siena’s at-large bid is that they played very good teams, but didn’t beat any of them. I remember the same argument about Davidson last year (who thankfully got the automatic bid), and they had the ball for a shot in the Final Four.

Siena probably deserves an automatic bid if they lose in the finals to Niagara, who is on fire now. If Siena beats Niagara in the finals, Niagara deserves real consideration.

I know the flaw is that Niagara didn’t play a strong schedule. The two very good opponents Niagara faced recently were both at home, and Niagara beat Siena and Illinois State easily.

The goal of the committee should be to get the best 34 teams into the tournament, and the 34 best teams in December aren’t the best teams now.

If Utah State doesn’t get the automatic bid, they don’t deserve to be in, because they haven’t played very well down the stretch. I’m not sure if a team like Providence is better than Niagara, since Providence beat both Syracuse and Pittsburgh at home, and Niagara didn’t.

Then again, Niagara doesn’t get the opportunity to do so.

I really would like to see the two teams play it out on a court, with something on the line. Two years ago, Niagara was in the play-in game in Dayton, basically because the NCAA needed a sacrificial lamb so two predominately black colleges weren’t in the game (their reasoning, not my analysis).

I think my system would avoid the sacrificial lamb scenario and provide for a lot more entertainment in the process.

Plus, it would occasionally give the Niagara’s of the world the chance to make their case in an arena, a place they’ve been really good recently.

Yes, the glorious time of year has finally arrived. It's a time when hearts are broken, hopes are lost, and confidences are destroyed.

These games are make or break for most teams that need a final resume builder before selection Sunday, because otherwise, it means win the conference tournament or else.

Tonight, there are two huge match-ups, both of which are aired on television, and both are must-wins if any of the four teams is looking for an at-large bid.

First, at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2, Illinois State heads to Niagara. Both teams are trying to inch closer to first place in their respective conferences and it will surely be a battle of the defenses. 

They each outscore their opponents by about nine points per game, giving up about 65 points per game while scoring in the seventies. And both have valuable senior leadership and strong guard play, key components that will make this game interesting.

Although Siena does have a strong case for a potential at-large bid, if they lose here, their chances are essentially gone. This is arguably the most important game for either team to win as we near conference tournaments and the season-ending losses.

Players to Watch: Tyrone Lewis #2 G (Niagara, 16.4 PPG), Osiris Eldrige #0 G (Illinois State, 14.0 PPG)

My Prediction: In what will be a closely fought game, I like Illinois State to come through on the road. It will be a battle of will and in my opinion, Illinois State needs it more.

Then, at 9 p.m. ET on ESPNU, Virginia Commonwealth faces Nevada. The Wolfpack, although talented, lack senior leadership on a team that is primarily led by freshman forward Luke Babbitt, who averages 16.2 points and 7.4 rebounds per game.

They currently stand at 15-10 and 8-4 in the WAC, but they really do not have a strong case for an at-large bid. Their only hope is to win the conference tournament, and that would likely mean upsetting Utah State, but the future is bright for this team. VCU on the other hand, has had some minor slip ups in the unpredictable CAA, but now sit in first place, alone.

They have an overall 19-8 record led by point guard Eric Maynor, who scores 22.9 a game, which ranks tenth nationally. But, due to the lack of a RPI top 50 win, don’t present a strong case for an at-large bid either.

Winning the conference tournament is essentially a must for both of these teams, but a win here could give either team a much needed boost before the final push.

Players to Watch: Luke Babbitt #5 F (16.2 PPG), Eric Maynor #3 G (VCU, 22.9 PPG)

My prediction: VCU comes through in yet another close game because of Maynor’s hot shooting.

This article is also featured on www.thebracketbusters.com.