Nico Rosberg Must Learn Lessons from Suzuka to Beat Lewis Hamilton in Russian GP
With a mistake under braking at Turn 12, Lewis Hamilton knew the chance had gone and the drought—if we may call it that—was set to continue.
Rather than persevering with one more lap, one last chance, the winner of 14 of the last 21 races decided this was a day to accept defeat and settle for second in qualifying.
After returning to the pit box to find his clutch bite point, Hamilton was wheeled back into the darkness of the garage before beginning the walk of shame toward the weighbridge—his crash helmet still shielding him from the watching world.
As Hamilton reached his destination and made his way through a gap in the parc-ferme barriers, the remaining Mercedes W06 Hybrid appeared around the corner and parked almost directly in front of him.
The timing, of course, was entirely coincidental, yet it was almost as though Nico Rosberg—aware his only rival for pole position had given up and deciding against wasting time and effort trying to better a time he knew was unbeatable—had scheduled his arrival in the pit lane simply to rub it in.
And why not?
With pole position ahead of Sunday's Russian Grand Prix, Rosberg has secured back-to-back poles for the first time since November 2014. His one-lap pace has seemingly returned at the exact time his championship hopes are slipping away—the German currently trails Hamilton by 48 points with five races remaining.
Where it was once Nico unable to string a lap together, making slight errors at crucial moments and simply lacking pace, it is now Lewis—who sealed the 2015 FIA Pole Position Trophy as early as August's Belgian GP but has missed out on pole in the last three races—without the required poise and fluency in qualifying conditions.
And while Hamilton has been unable to match Rosberg for speed at the Sochi Autodrom, finishing behind his team-mate in all three qualifying segments (per BBC Sport), the disrupted nature of the Russian weekend has played into the hands of the German thus far.
After the rain-interrupted Friday at Suzuka, Japan, where teams were unable to complete meaningful running ahead of qualifying, the opening two days at Sochi have again hindered preparations. A diesel spillage shortened the first free-practice session, heavy showers rendered FP2 irrelevant and Carlos Sainz Jr's heavy crash brought FP3 to a premature conclusion.
As noted over the Japanese weekend, the loss of track time prevented one Mercedes driver establishing an early advantage over the other—something Hamilton has utilised throughout 2015—and explains why Rosberg was again able to complete a clean, fast lap as his team-mate made another costly mistake.
Qualifying, though, has always been the easy bit for Rosberg, and although he cut an excited figure after securing pole at Suzuka—telling Sky Sports' Pete Gill and James Galloway, for instance, how his car was "positively on rails"—the smile was wiped off his face within two corners of the race, when he tumbled from first to fourth.
There, Rosberg was the victim of a carefully calculated plot by a more streetwise driver who has spent his entire career competing at the very front of the grid.
Hamilton's decision to ease his speed at the end of the formation lap left Rosberg sauntering to the grid alone, meaning the Brit was able to interfere with his team-mate's tyre, clutch and engine temperatures. Mercedes boss Toto Wolff later told Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble how an overheating power unit compromised Rosberg's start.
It was the latest example of Hamilton's increased maturity as a racing driver, his ability to identify an overtaking opportunity and execute it to perfection in a step-by-step approach, culminating in his forceful pass on the exit of Turn 2.
Yet Rosberg's failure to recognise and counteract the world champion's plan—by condensing the field as he led the cars to the grid, for example—highlighted his lack of nous in on-track combat.
His instant loss of the lead in Japan made it all the more surprising that in the post-qualifying FIA press conference at Sochi, he admitted he hadn't even "thought about" his approach to the start of the race, claiming he would "dig into that this evening or tomorrow morning to work out a plan."
Rosberg's careless attitude toward the start was not what you would expect of a driver searching for their first victory in over three months and still with a mathematical chance of winning the world championship, especially when Sochi could become the most challenging first lap in F1.
The long distance between the start line and the circuit's first braking point at Turn 2 is a rarity in motorsport. It presents drivers with the opportunity to think—and sometimes overthink, guessing and second-guessing their opponents' manoeuvres—at a stage of the race when they operate instinctively.
That, in part, is why Rosberg locked both front brakes at the start of last year's Russian GP after twice fiddling with his seatbelts—something he simply wouldn't have considered doing at a track where the corners come thick and fast.
And it is why, even with pole position in his pocket, he cannot afford to enter the race without a clear, defined plan of action for every eventuality in his fight against Hamilton.
To miss out on one pole-to-flag win, alongside a driver of Hamilton's calibre, is excusable, if a little negligent. But failing to capitalise on two pole positions in the space of just 14 days would be unforgivable.
So often regarded as the most intelligent driver on the grid, Rosberg needs to learn the lessons from defeat at Suzuka and put them into practice at Sochi.
