After a spectacular double world championship with Renault, the sky looked like the limit for Fernando Alonso when he moved to McLaren in 2007.
However, 2007 was an unexpectedly turbulent season for Alonso, as problems with his teammate Lewis Hamilton, team boss Ron Dennis and politics broke down with his relationship with the team. His position became untenable and he left to re-join the Renault team he had so much success with.
So far, the season hasn’t gone according to plan and Renault haven’t been able to re-join the battle for the championship. The car is starting to make progress with Alonso’s third place on the grid at Magny-Cours, but it is still nowhere near being a race winner.
You can tell from Alonso’s driving that this is definitely causing him a lot of frustration. He is pushing extremely hard to get results, to the point that he is making errors.
One example is that desperate move on Nick Heidfeld in the wet Monaco GP and crashing whilst challenging for a potential win in the even crazier Canadian GP.
You would imagine that after winning two championships and going to McLaren he wasn’t expecting to end up in a slow Renault car the season after. This is currently a tough time for Alonso, as he battles to get back in the hunt for world championships.
Alonso now faces the agonizing task of which team he chooses to drive for in 2009 and beyond. He wants to be challenging for championships, and not fighting in the midfield for scraps of the low points-paying positions.
The huge problem Alonso faces when making this decision is the set of new 2009 aero rules. For all the teams, this is like a fresh sheet of A4 paper.
The current developments of this year’s cars have no bearing on the work which will have to be undertaken on the 2009 car, which will be a completely different species.
Big rule changes often make for big changes in the order of the grid, so it is a lot harder to predict who is going to make the most progress and who may plummet down to the wrong end of the grid.
That’s not the only problem Alonso faces when trying to find a world championship-winning seat next season. After his behaviour and reactions to events in 2007, some teams' opinions of Alonso have gone down.
Some team principals have certainly be made a bit wary of him and may think he is too high-maintenance and choose to go for other drivers. However, there will be other team principals who won’t have forgotten about what Alonso has achieved so far in his career and given a fast car and a lot of support and love can deliver a team a world championship.
For a team out there, it could turn out to be a great shrewd move if they can see through what happened at McLaren in 2007 and if they can cope with his demands for high standards throughout the whole season.
Fernando Alonso could end up anywhere on the grid at the moment from staying where he currently is at Renault to moving to Ferrari or perhaps even taking a gamble at an ambitious team such as Honda or Red Bull Racing.
Lets take a look at the possible options and see how viable they are in terms of giving him the car he needs and whether they are likely to want to hire him.
Ferrari
Ferrari are the ‘in form team’ on the grid at the moment for Formula 1. Since Michael Schumacher came to the team in 1996 they have consistently challenged at the front of the grid season after season.
Even Michael Schumacher retiring and other key members of the team moving onto pastures new haven’t stopped the team from building very fast competitors. Out of all the teams, Ferrari are the team you would bet the most money on building a fast car year on year.
Despite all their recent success, the hunger for more world championships is very high. Under Jean Todt, Ferrari weren’t particularly keen on hiring Fernando Alonso in the future, but under new management he is seen as a possible option.
The main problem for Fernando Alonso is that Ferrari may be wary of his past behaviour at McLaren and this may persuade them to opt for someone like Robert Kubica who is proving himself to be extremely fast and doesn’t come with some of Alonso’s baggage and demands. He also speaks fluent Italian.
The other problem is that there isn’t likely to be a vacant seat until 2010 if at all. Raikkonen may decide he doesn’t want to leave Ferrari and F1 after all in 2009. Would Ferrari axe Massa for Alonso, and, on Massa’s current form, I don’t think so.
I believe that Ferrari know that an Alonso/Raikkonen pairing could cause a few headaches after seeing what happened the last time Alonso was in a very competitive driver pairing.
Even an Alonso/Massa rivalry has the potential for chaos after two or three wheel-banging incidents they have had together.
So there is a chance of Alonso joining Ferrari but not as strong in my opinion as many insiders in F1 think. Some even say he has already signed a contract with Ferrari for 2010 but in this writer’s opinion that is just pure speculation.
Renault
The team all love Fernando Alonso, plus he is always without doubt going to be undisputed No. 1 driver in the team, which seems to be very important to him. Despite Renault’s poor performances recently, the team are committed to F1 in the long term and being successful.
Staying at Renault would offer stability for Alonso and for the Renault team, and they would help each other move forward. Another plus point is that moving to any other team in 2009 as mentioned earlier is a massive gamble.
Maybe its best to stay in the same place and see how all the teams do and if Alonso is lucky, Renault may adapt to the new aero rules better than any other team.
Alonso would be pig-sick if he left the team and all of a sudden, with a blank sheet of paper, the team did a brilliant job. If Renault still aren’t performing, Alonso can try to get a seat somewhere else in 2010, the season Ferrari and BMW Sauber are most likely to have vacant seats.
Staying at Renault would be the safest option for Fernando Alonso at the minute, rather than taking a huge gamble on someone else and it completely backfiring.
BMW Sauber
BMW Sauber are a team moving rapidly forward and very committed to their goal of being F1 champions. Their progress season after season so far has always been a big leap forward. Their facilities are top class. They have a very crafty and clever boss in Mario Theissen along with a big budget for their F1 operation. BMW Sauber are sure to be challenging for championships and winning them very soon. BMW are a team Alonso could easily be a champion with. If Heidfeld continues to not get good results for the rest of the season then it isn’t impossible that there could be a vacant seat next season.
I am sure Alonso would seriously consider moving to BMW if he got offered the chance but I don’t think he will be. BMW Sauber could have signed Alonso this season if they really wanted to but they opted not to and stuck with their current drivers, even after Kubica had an average season. I think BMW Sauber more than any other team in the paddock are mindful of Alonso’s actions at Mclaren last season. BMW are used to no nonsense racing drivers who just get on with the racing and don’t take in F1’s politics and work brilliantly with the team. BMW are worried that signing a name and personality as big as Alonso’s could potentially cause unrest in the team. BMW seem very happy to stick with drivers under their management and development programme for the future.
BMW Sauber must not forget though that if they were to give Alonso a race winning car, he would get the job done but they would probably have to sacrifice Kubica as Alonso wouldn’t want a team mate as competitive as he is. Something to consider though is if Ferrari opt to go for Kubica in 2010, BMW may be forced to sign Alonso as the best replacement. This is the only way I can see Alonso joining BMW.
Honda
This move would be a big gamble for Fernando Alonso but one, which could prove exceptional. Honda have already thrown all of their resources onto the 2009 car and under Ross Brawn the team is now under much better management and heading in the right direction. Alonso could be the driver to really propel Honda up the grid just like Schumacher for Ferrari in the mid 90s. Ross Brawn knows how to handle big name drivers and I think Alonso and Ross Brawn could work very well together. Alonso needs a big personality and someone of high calibre to work with and get the best out of him both in and out of the car and Ross Brawn is certainly that man in my opinion.
Success wouldn’t come straight away though, despite the fresh sheet of paper all the teams have next season a team currently at the back end of the midfield aren’t suddenly going to become champions next season. It is going to take a couple of years but I could see it working. It all depends on whether Alonso is prepared to go for another couple of seasons of not challenging for the championship whilst he works hard to get Honda up to speed.
Red Bull Racing
This would be another big gamble for Fernando Alonso, but, like Honda, one that could pay off. Red Bull have all the ingredients there to be challenging at the front of the grid in the future.
They have the greatest designer in F1 in Adrian Newey and in Geoff Willis they have someone with huge pedigree who has also won championships and Honda took a huge downward spiral after he left them. They have a tremendous passion towards getting to the front of the grid and now a lot of backing from the big bosses at Red Bull.
The 2009 aero rules is the ideal opportunity for Adrian to stamp his authority on all the F1 designers in the paddock again. The main thing of course is that I think Red Bull would be very interested in Fernando Alonso.
They were very keen to sign him for this season but he only wanted to sign a one-year deal in order to keep his options open. If he is now ready to commit to a long-term deal then Red Bull would definitely be interested I feel.
On the negative side though, like Honda, Red Bull aren’t going to make the huge leap to be champions next year, Alonso would have to wait a while in order to challenge for another world championship but all the ingredients are there for a great relationship with long-term success. Alonso could well be the last magic ingredient needed to make Red Bull a front-runner in Formula 1.
Toyota
Something that we can have no doubts about is that Toyota would definitely want to hire Fernando Alonso. However what do they have to offer him?
Well, you can be sure that Toyota would be willing to pay over the odds for him. They paid Ralf Schumacher 25 million a year and received very little in return, so you would think Toyota would be willing to pay a lot more for Fernando.
Within the team they would give him everything he wants including undisputed No. 1 status and he would certainly be allowed to call the shots on various things in terms of who he hires as his No. 2 driver and test driver and anyone former colleagues he may want in other areas of the team.
Despite all these features that Toyota may offer Alonso they will never give him the car he needs to win the title. Even the huge rule changes won’t give Toyota the chance to catch up with the front runners since they haven’t got enough capable people in their ranks or the right frame of mind and management.
I doubt even Fernando Alonso can make their fortunes even better. If he fancies a lot of money to take into early retirement, then Toyota are a good option. If he has the hunger to win more races and championships, this would be a suicidal career move for him. Red Bull and Honda show far more potential for the future. I wouldn’t be too sure of Toyota’s long-term commitment to the sport either.
Final Conclusion
As mentioned at the start of this article, this is a really important move for Fernando Alonso. He desperately wants to be challenging for the world title again; he doesn’t want to be messing around with cars in the midfield. That is a waste of the huge talent he possesses.
Alonso is partly to blame for being in this current mess. If he had tried harder to make a better relationship with the team and been a bit more mature and reacted to situations better, then, he could well be a 3 times world champion by now and still a driver in a rapid McLaren car rather than in an underwhelming Renault.
The other problem Alonso has created for himself is that the big teams are more wary of him and his behaviour, so they are not sure whether to risk signing him or not. After 2006, Alonso could have walked into any team on the grid.
At the moment, he could still walk into any midfield teams but he is going to have to work hard and perhaps more important, change, if he is to walk into a big team like BMW Sauber and Ferrari. For sure, his manager and advisors will be working very hard to sell him to these particularly teams and see if something can be done.
If I were Alonso at the moment, I would just be inclined to stay at Renault for another year and keep my options open. The rule changes in 2009 are so big you can’t really predict which team is going to get it right. Alonso runs the risk of signing a multi-year contract somewhere and ending up stuck with a poor car if that particularly team completely messes up the adaptation to the new rules.
Alonso could then stick with Renault if they get the job done in 2009 or move in 2010 to a team that has adapted very well to the new climate of F1. I doubt there will be huge movement around the grid next season unless Alonso himself moves as he currently holds the key to the driver market.
If he were to move next season, there would be a huge flurry of movement and good seats being secured. That’s why my advice to Alonso is to stick with Renault for the time being.
Now really is the worst time you can choose in F1 for some time to be making a very big gamble with regards to moving teams. The best thing to do is to hang on.
Whether Alonso listens to my advice is another matter, I rather suspect he won’t take it and chooses to take a gamble on either Honda or Red Bull. This may prove to be the most inspired move he makes or one, which sends Alonso’s career further off course.
I do wonder whether further down the line, Alonso will regret some of his actions during his 2007 season at McLaren and the negative impact it may continue to have on his career. Still, he is a megastar and, with careful thought over the coming months can turn it all around.
Deciding the next team to move to can make or break an F1 career.