Williams

Williams will field an unchanged lineup for the 2016 Formula One season, with veteran Felipe Massa once again partnered by rising star Valtteri Bottas.

The ideal mix of experience and youth has seen the Grove-based team secure third place in the constructors' championship for two years in a row, and Williams will be hoping that stability in their driver pairing will lead to further success in the year ahead.

Massa and Bottas should know each other very well by now—of all the 2016 team-mate pairings, only Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg at Mercedes have been together for longer.

The lengthy partnership is something of a novelty for Williams, too. This is only the second time in their near 40-year history that they have retained the same driver lineup for three years in a row.

To date, Bottas has been the top performer of the two, and he'll be entering the year with one eye firmly fixed on a switch to a larger team for 2017. But Massa has rarely been too far behind his younger team-mate, and he'll have no intention of letting the Finn establish himself as the team's clear No. 1 driver.

The two men were at very different points in their respective careers when they were paired together at Williams at the start of 2014.

Bottas was regarded as one of the sport's most promising young drivers. The Finn had just completed his first season in F1, but the uncompetitive FW35 car had given him only a handful of opportunities to show his talents.

One of these was qualifying for the Canadian Grand Prix, where Bottas took third on a damp track. Though he fell back in the race—the fault of the car, not the driver—he made his mark, and when the sport returned to North America toward the end of the year, he was once again a star of the weekend.

Bottas qualified ninth and finished eighth at the United States Grand Prix—securing the first points of his career. He looked like he was set to become one of the men who would shape the next decade of F1.

Massa, by contrast, appeared to be coming toward the end of his time in the sport.

His 2013 season had been disappointing—as Ferrari team-mate Fernando Alonso won two races and finished second in the drivers' standings, the Brazilian managed just one podium on his way to eighth.

It was the third consecutive year in which Massa had scored fewer than half of Alonso's points, and the Ferrari management finally decided enough was enough. Kimi Raikkonen was brought in to replace him and Massa headed to Williams, looking to kick-start his flagging career.

In the opening half of the 2014 season, Bottas looked to be on top. A string of three consecutive podiums in the Austrian, British and German Grands Prix saw him placed fifth in the championship with 91 points after 10 of the 19 races.

Massa, though not too far behind his team-mate pace-wise, was having a harder time. Despite taking his first pole position since 2008 at the Austrian Grand Prix, he finished in the points just four times in the first 10 grands prix and scored a mere 30 points.

With Bottas looking mighty and Massa struggling to string together a solid run of results, it looked like the Finn would run away with the intra-team battle. His performances were of a sufficiently high level that Claire Williams, per the Guardian, and Sky Sports' Mike Wise and Jamie Galloway all described him as a future world champion.

But being flipped upside down at the first corner in Germany must have flicked a switch in Massa's head, because he was a different driver in the final nine races.

The Brazilian matched Bottas' three podiums in this period and chalked up 104 additional points, beating his team-mate's tally of 95.

Though Bottas prevailed overall by a substantial margin—186 points to Massa's 134—the second half of the season had shown that the veteran still had what it took to compete at the highest level.

Williams were a little less competitive in 2015, so opportunities for podium finishes were few and far between.

Massa was able to take the early initiative with fourth place at the season-opening race, as Bottas was forced out with a back injury. The Finn hit back at the following grand prix, overtaking his team-mate in the closing stages to finish fifth, but Massa was back ahead at the third race of the year, in China.

The early part of the season followed this to-and-fro pattern, with neither driver able to establish himself as the team leader. By the time the F1 circus departed from Budapest after the 10th round of the season, Bottas led the way on 77 points—but Massa was only three points back, on 74.

Their closeness was surprising given Bottas' reputation as one of the sport's future stars; his absence from the Australian round went some way to excusing the small gap, but he didn't appear to be on top form either.

His qualifying displays in particular seemed a little "off." Massa was leading the intra-team battle at this stage, having outqualfied Bottas as many times in the opening 10 rounds—six—as he did in the entire 2014 season.

Something wasn't quite right, and in an interview with the official F1 website during the summer break, Bottas revealed that rumours linking him to a switch to Ferrari for 2016 had been unhelpful. Asked if they had been an unnecessary distraction, he replied:

The key word is ‘unnecessary’ because most of what was rumoured was simply not true. And it simply didn’t do any good for mine and the team’s relationship. So these kinds of rumours are pretty unfair. From now on it will be easier as everybody knows what the situation is.

But he was also quick to praise the improvement shown by his team-mate, saying of Massa: "He is a quick driver. He was nearly a world champion and has been driving really well this year so far—possibly driving a bit better than last year."

The Ferrari rumours were put to bed by the time the second half of the season kicked off, and the single-lap pace for which the Finn had been known in 2014 suddenly returned. He qualified ahead of Massa four times in the five races from Belgium to Russia, but race-day luck was not always on his side.

Bottas lost the opportunity for a good result at Spa after the team accidentally fitted a medium-compound tyre as part of a set of softs, while Kimi Raikkonen's ill-timed final-lap lunge at Sochi cost his fellow Finn a podium.

Raikkonen vs Bottas, Sochi 2015. #motormx pic.twitter.com/z1JrtVtJEl

— Rodrigo de Motoren (@Rodrigo_Motoren) January 24, 2016

Massa had mixed fortunes; a great weekend at Monza brought him a second podium of the season, but his gearbox failed at the Singapore Grand Prix and a collision with Daniel Ricciardo on the opening lap ended his hopes in Suzuka.

The result was that the Williams pair remained very close in terms of points—after 15 rounds, Bottas was two clear of Massa.

Neither man had the best end to the year, both failing to score in two of the final four races, but Bottas achieved his second podium of the season after a fine drive to third in Mexico. This helped him to secure fifth in the championship standings at the end of the year; Massa was sixth, 15 points behind.

Bottas also won the qualifying scrap after a difficult start to the year, edging out Massa 11-8.

That the Finn "won" both main battles with Massa was fair—though the two were more evenly matched than many expected, Bottas was unquestionably the better driver throughout the course of the season.

But he hadn't quite been as impressive as he might have hoped. In Autosport's team principals' driver rankings, Bottas was rated as the seventh-best driver of the season; in 2014, he had been ranked fourth.

Massa, meanwhile, despite appearing closer to his team-mate in terms of on-track performance, slipped outside the top 10 after coming sixth in 2014.

Looking ahead, 2016 is very much an audition for both drivers. For Bottas, the season will be about assuring the big teams that he really does have what it takes to become a champion in the future.

Williams have performed well over the last two seasons, but without a major investment from somewhere—probably in the form of a works deal with an engine manufacturer—they are not going to give the 26-year-old the chance to become a world champion.

Only the larger, wealthier teams can offer that—and Bottas is definitely on at least one of their radars. Per ESPN's Laurence Edmondson, Ferrari spoke to Williams about acquiring his signature for 2016, but eventually opted to retain Raikkonen for another year.

Sky Sports speculated the hefty sum Ferrari would have had to pay to buy Bottas out of his Williams contract—around £10 million—may have swayed their decision.

However, providing he doesn't sign any additional deal with his current team, Bottas will be free to move at the end of 2016.

There will almost certainly be a vacancy at Ferrari, while Mercedes may also find themselves in need of a new driver—and their executive director, Toto Wolff, is one of Bottas' managers.

The new Renault works team may also be in the market for a top-level star driver.

Bottas needs to find a way to put aside the distracting question marks over his future and ensure he not only beats Massa in 2016, but crushes him. The Brazilian is a very good driver with a huge amount of experience, but a genuine "future world champion" should be capable of putting him firmly in the shade.

F1 is not short on rising stars and Bottas will be 27 by the end of the season. If he really is capable of writing his name into the history books, 2016 is the year he needs to prove it.

Massa has a very different task ahead of him. He is not guaranteed a seat at Williams beyond the end of 2016, and he will turn 35 in April. No driver can go on forever, and retirement is already starting to cross his mind.

Speaking to UOL Esporte (h/t Autoweek) in November, the 34-year-old revealed:

Next year will be the last of my contract, so I think it will be the most important season to understand if I continue or not.

If I have the chance to race on a competitive team, I stay. Otherwise, I stop.

I will be in F1 if I have a team like Williams, where I am very happy to drive and they are also happy to have me. When you love working somewhere and feel loved as well, that is what gives the motivation to continue.

He went on to add that, though he doesn't quite feel ready yet, "I don't think I will be afraid to stop."

If he does decide to hang up his helmet, no one could blame him—but if he continues to drive as he did in 2015, he still has a lot to offer the sport and his team.

Massa's insistence on a competitive car leaves him with no realistic options beyond remaining with Williams, so his 2016 will be all about proving to them that he is still a valuable asset to have.

And that means he has to, at the very least, keep Bottas honest throughout the course of the year.

Felipe Massa may have been disqualified from Sunday's Brazilian Grand Prix, but Valtteri Bottas finished fifth and clinched third place in the Formula One Constructors' Championship for the Williams team. That matches their finish in the overall standings last year—Williams' best result since a second-place finish in 2003, during their BMW partnership.

The team's resurgence is a curious and fascinating case. Williams have shown moments of brilliance (qualifying in Austria last season, for example, or the first half of this year's British Grand Prix), but are they truly "back"—on their way to winning races and challenging for championships again?

It is something I have written about several times since last year, but as we approach the end of 2015, what do the numbers tell us? Are Williams closing the gap to Mercedes and their other competitors?

We've also clinched 3rd in the constructors' for the second year in a row. Great job all! #BrazilGP #WeAreRacing pic.twitter.com/JNxjtyYiA0

— Atlassian Williams Racing (@WilliamsRacing) November 15, 2015

After the 2014 Brazilian Grand Prix, Williams had scored 254 points and seven podium finishes. This year, despite just four podium finishes, the team has 257 points. Bottas and Massa will not match last year's final total of 320 points, but that number was boosted by the much-derided awarding of double points for the season finale in Abu Dhabi, where the Williams team-mates finished second and third.

On the surface, then, Williams have not made a big jump this year, but they haven't regressed either. Still, individual race results demonstrate that there is still a long way to go before they can mount a serious challenge against Mercedes, and even Ferrari.

After the Brazilian Grand Prix, per a team press release, Bottas acknowledged as much, saying:

I am so proud of the team to get P3 in the constructors’. We are competing against teams that are much bigger than us, and in some cases beating them, which is really cool. The guys at the track and in the factory have done really well this year, so a massive thank you must go to them and also to Mercedes HPP for a really strong power unit. We want to win though, so next year we must continue to make that step forward.

To get an idea of the gap that still exists between Williams and Mercedes, let's examine some recent results (between Williams' top driver and the race winner).

In Brazil, Bottas finished more than a lap behind race winner Nico Rosberg. Last year in Sao Paolo, Massa was the top Williams car, and he finished 41 seconds behind Rosberg, who won that race as well.

At the Russian Grand Prix this year, Bottas was about 27 seconds behind Mercedes' Lewis Hamilton and headed for the podium before his Williams FW37 was punted off the track by Kimi Raikkonen. At the 2014 Russian Grand Prix, Bottas finished third, 17 seconds behind the winner: Hamilton.

The Mexican and American races between Russia and Brazil don't provide relevant points of comparison, as Mexico was not on the calendar last year and both Williams drivers retired early in the 2015 United States Grand Prix. Likewise, last year's Japanese Grand Prix included two starts, both behind the safety car, and an early finish after Jules Bianchi's crash, so its results do not provide a meaningful comparison to this year's race.

Looking further back, Bottas finished 34 seconds adrift of Ferrari's Sebastian Vettel in Singapore this year, which compares favourably to Massa's finish 42 seconds behind Hamilton in 2014. It should be noted, though, that both races had a safety car period just past the halfway point, but the 2014 race had three extra laps of racing after the safety car for Hamilton to extend the gap.

In Italy this year, Massa finished third, 47 seconds behind Hamilton. He was also third last year, but 25 seconds behind Hamilton's Mercedes.

Finally, at this season's Belgian Grand Prix, Massa was 55 seconds behind Hamilton at the end of the race. Last year, Bottas finished 28 seconds behind Red Bull's Daniel Ricciardo after the Mercs collided on Lap 2, compromising both of their races (it is safe to assume the gap would have been bigger had the Mercs been able to sprint away, as usual).

We won't go through every race, but the point is that Williams are not exactly nipping at Mercedes' heels. If they were truly gearing up for a championship run in 2016, you would expect their results to look something like, say, Ferrari's.

Qualifying results also illustrate the gap that still remains between Williams and the Silver Arrows.

Race	2014 Gap (in seconds)	2015 Gap (in seconds)
Australia	+3.848	+1.391
Malaysia	+3.419 (Q2)	+2.639
China	+2.287	+1.172
Bahrain	+1.062	+0.810
Spain	+1.400	+1.013
Monaco	+1.728 (Q2)	+1.807 (Q2)
Canada	+0.676	+0.709
Austria	-0.185	+0.737
Great Britain	+4.938 (Q1)	+0.837
Hungary	+0.639	+1.202
Belgium	+2.458	+1.340
Italy	+0.588	+0.543
Singapore	+0.319	+1.791
Japan	+0.622	+0.440
Russia	+0.407	+0.799
Brazil	+0.224	+0.803

As you can see, the top Williams driver has qualified closer to the pole-sitter than he did in 2014 at nine of 16 races this year (highlighted in yellow). However, five of those nine races are the first five of the season, where Williams generally had dismal qualifying results in 2014. It is no surprise they improved there.

But in the last 11 races on the chart (the U.S. is excluded because qualifying was cancelled this year), Williams were only closer to the pole time at four of them. And only once all season has the team been within half-a-second of pole.

Again, there is much work to do before Williams is in the championship conversation.

Another third-place finish in the Constructors' Championship is a great result for Williams. It will help them financially and establishes them firmly in the upper tier of the grid, but it does not look like a precursor to a wheel-to-wheel battle with Mercedes. Even a rejuvenated Ferrari looks out of Williams' reach for next season, with F1's relatively stable regulations.

Deputy team principal Claire Williams said last year, in an interview with the official F1 website, that Williams were aiming for a title challenge in 2016. That was too ambitious, although following finishes of ninth, eighth and ninth in the constructors' standings, her excitement and overoptimism can easily be forgiven.  

But a third straight season in third place—and the attendant financial benefits—would set Williams up nicely for 2017, when the sport will introduce significant changes to the technical regulations. At that time, there may be an opportunity to make a significant jump relative to Mercedes.

In the meantime, of course, Williams have to ensure no one jumps them.

All timing statistics are taken from the FIA's official data.

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Sir Frank Williams couldn't speak highly enough of his team's rising star, but he had a backhanded compliment specially prepared for his senior driver.

As Williams announced their 2015 driver lineup on the morning of last year's Italian Grand Prix, confirming the partnership between Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa would extend into a second season, Sir Frank addressed a team of two halves.

Having claimed a number of podium finishes in just his second year in Formula One, Bottas had established himself as a future world champion, and his team principal knew it, with Sir Frank telling BBC Sport's Andrew Benson how the team had "great hopes" for their "long-term investment."

His assessment of Massa, however, was far less enthusiastic.

Despite becoming the first Williams driver to secure a pole position in almost four years in Austria, Massa had been embroiled in one too many dramas and on-track incidents for his team's liking over the course of 2014, his inconsistency costing them valuable points.

Rather than commenting on the Brazilian's impact at the team following his move from Ferrari, Sir Frank said it best by saying nothing at all as far as 2014 was concerned, instead choosing to focus on what Massa had achieved prior to his arrival at Williams and suggesting another scruffy season would not be tolerated.

Amazing picture Williams Formula One driver Felipe #Massa crash at German F1 Grand Prix Hockenheim, July 20, 2014 http://t.co/PS7gyCtCR0

— Jonny Dodge (@JonnyDodge) July 20, 2014

"Felipe is a very experienced driver," he told the same source. "He has learnt how to stand up to Ferdy (Fernando Alonso), my hero in Formula 1 and given him a hard time in the past and I have the highest regard for him.

"He's agreed to stay and we look forward to a new stronger season with him next year."

As much as his words were intended to provide the Brazilian with a much-needed kick up the backside, Sir Frank had effectively set Massa a challenge to prove he was the driver Williams thought they signed at the end of 2013, to show he was still capable of competing at the front of the grid.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MhRPXcQ0prQ

And Felipe responded in the only way he knows, securing his first podium finish of the season just hours later.

That assured third place at Monza proved to be the springboard for his Williams career, with Massa gaining much confidence and scoring four further podiums over the following 12 months—the sheer level and consistency of his performances hushing the hype around Bottas.

His knack of answering his critics, silencing his doubters and overcoming various difficulties has been the recurring theme of his entire F1 career and the reason he has spent so much of his racing life in contention for points and prizes.

When, for instance, he was dismissed as Michael Schumacher's latest puppet at Ferrari in 2006, he recovered from an unsteady start to win two races by the end of season. When he was widely regarded as the weakest link in title battles featuring Lewis Hamilton, Kimi Raikkonen and Alonso in 2007 and '08, the underdog came within seconds of being crowned the champion of the world.

When, following his life-threatening accident in Hungary 2009, it was feared he would never be the same again, he reached the podium in the first two races of the following year. And when he was viewed as damaged goods after his departure from Ferrari, he successfully repaired his reputation at another iconic team.

Such resilience has made Massa one of the most respected, popular figures in the sport, and although he has resisted the weight of popular opinion throughout his decade around the front of the field, it appears he is now battling the voice within.

Ahead of this weekend's Brazilian GP, Massa—rather unusually for a racing driver in the modern era—admitted that he is already contemplating retirement at the end of 2016, telling UOL Esporte (h/t ESPN F1):

Next year will be the last of my contract, so I think that will be the most important season to understand if I continue or not. If I have the chance to be with a competitive team, I will [continue]. Otherwise, I stop.

I'll be in F1 if I have a team like Williams, with whom I am very happy and they are also happy to have me. When you love working and feel loved, that is what gives [you] motivation to continue.

While, on the evidence of his comments, Massa's future is very much in the hands of Williams, the very fact he is considering retirement—claiming he is, unlike many of his peers, unafraid of walking away—is strange when his career is currently in the midst of an Indian summer.

As Rob Smedley, his long-term friend and colleague, told Autosport's Lawrence Barretto in April, Massa, even at the age of 34, continues to "develop and get better and better" and is driving more smartly than ever before, performing "as good" as he did when he came so close yet so far in 2008.

Perhaps Massa feels that, come the end of his three-year plan in 2016, his work in helping to re-establish Williams as a major force will be done and the time will be right. But the timing of his retirement hint will have short-term repercussions on the eve of what could be his penultimate F1 appearance on home soil.

With two victories and three further podium finishes, Massa has always excelled at his home track at Interlagos, where—as noted ahead of last year's event—he enjoys a powerful, unique relationship with the local spectators.

At a venue where Williams' FW37 car should perform strongly, and at a time their hero is openly questioning his future, the affection of the home support may play an enhanced role in propelling Massa to another strong result this weekend, leaving him unable to imagine a life without F1.

The end may be beginning to appear on the horizon. But it would, as ever, be foolish to write him off just yet.

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In the final moments of qualifying at last year's Russian Grand Prix, the Sochi Autodrom became a four-corner racetrack in the eyes of Valtteri Bottas.

He had been quickest in the first sector and faster than anyone in the second, but it would be those irritating, 90-degree, final four turns of this 18-corner circuit—one to the left, three to the right—that would decide whether Bottas would claim his first pole position in Formula One.

At the exact moment he needed to keep his driving neat and tidy, however, one of F1's most consistent, reliable performers did anything but.

Running wide on the exit of Turn 15 compromised his entry into Turn 16, with a twitch of the rear losing Bottas further momentum on the short straight toward the penultimate corner.

A front-right lockup at Turn 17 left him frantically sawing at the steering wheel to keep his car on track as his peers were stabilising theirs, and he could only aim and hope as he entered the final corner, missing the apex and running off the circuit.

The Williams FW36, the car he had jostled with such confidence around Sochi barely a minute earlier, had suddenly become his worst enemy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AwjS4it5aEo

And rather than sweeping across the finish line, Bottas staggered and stumbled.

The result? A potential pole became a deficit of 0.407 seconds, per BBC Sport, as Bottas was forced to settle for third behind the Mercedes' of Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg.

Initially, this felt no different to his missed opportunity in the Australian GP, where he clouted a barrier and suffered a puncture and cost himself a probable podium finish, or his mistake in Q3 in Austria, where an off-track excursion gifted pole position to his team-mate, Felipe Massa.

In other words, it felt like an error typical of a young racing driver, someone still adjusting—and still vulnerable—to the demands and pressures of competing at the very front of Formula One.

Yet it soon became clear—as Bottas, according to an emailed Williams press release, per Sky Sports, explained how he "took a bit too much out of the tyres in the first two sectors"—that it was nothing more, nothing less than a calculated risk.

Having been the only threat to Mercedes throughout qualifying, it seemed the 26-year-old took the decision to rag his car and punish the tyres around the first two sectors and hope the FW36—which, in any case, was bound to struggle in the tighter, twistier Sector 3—would hang on at the end of the lap. 

The worst outcome would have been third, but the best-possible result would have been one of the most-spectacular pole positions of the 2014 season and, indeed, modern-day F1.

And although the plan backfired, Bottas—who reinforced his speed the following day by securing his first-ever fastest lap—displayed a certain aggression he had rarely shown until that point and, in truth, has never shown since.

F1's return to the scene of the most-confident, complete performance of his career, therefore, should offer a strong indication of just how much Bottas, the racing driver, has changed over the last 12 months.

Regarded alongside Daniel Ricciardo as a world champion in waiting at this stage a year ago, he is now Williams' answer to Nico Hulkenberg—someone who, if offered title-winning machinery, would probably get the job done, but is no longer as convincing as he could and, perhaps, should be.

His development, as noted following September's Italian GP, appears to have stalled and Bottas, in many ways, has become an embodiment of his team's motor-racing philosophy.

Since their re-emergence as a major force at the beginning of 2014, Williams have been defined by their conservatism. 

The team have often evaded opportunities to win races in favour of cementing their position in the constructors' standings and entering each grand prix, as Rob Smedley told their official website, simply "looking to reduce the gap to the teams in front and extend the gap to the teams behind."

Bottas is adept at playing the percentages and extracting as much as possible from a grand prix weekend, with the Finn recording nine top-five finishes in 13 starts in 2015. 

But that consistency has blunted his competitive, racing instincts—see Hamilton's unobstructed pass on Bottas on the first lap at Silverstone, or Rosberg's overtake on the Williams driver at Suzuka—to the point where it is difficult to envisage him making another ambitious assault on pole position if he found himself in a promising position this weekend.

With this year's FW37 chassis retaining many of the characteristics of its predecessor, Williams are likely to be competitive at a venue where Mercedes-powered cars finished in the top five in 2014.

And while Pirelli's decision to use softer compounds at the second Russian GP should theoretically hurt the team, Williams' respectable performance on the soft and super-soft tyres at the recent Singapore GP—Bottas qualified seventh and finished fifth—suggests they have eradicated their early season issues.

The one question mark hanging over Williams' weekend, in fact, is just which Valtteri Bottas will roll out of the Sochi pit lane: The adventurous, unperturbed talent who took on the might of Mercedes and very nearly succeeded, or the tame, trudging plodder who exists to add points to his team's tally?

The answer may reveal where Bottas really stands at this stage of his career.

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This should have been a breakthrough season in the career of Valtteri Bottas.

After claiming six podiums over the course of the 2014 campaign, beating world champions Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso to fourth place in the drivers' standings and establishing himself as Williams' most dependable performer, he was ready to take the next step.

With Williams' FW37 chassis retaining many of the traits that allowed the team to secure their first top-three constructors' championship finish in 11 years, Bottas stood a strong chance of becoming 2015's answer to Daniel Ricciardo, emerging as Mercedes' main menace and potentially snatching a victory or three.

The uncertain futures of Lewis Hamilton and Kimi Raikkonen, who were embarking upon the final years of their respective contracts at Mercedes and Ferrari, attached extra significance to Bottas' campaign, meaning the right result at the right time could have seen him graduate to the very tip of the grid.

Indeed, in an era when drivers, with increasing regularity, are picking which teams they will drive for the following season—rather than vice versa—Bottas could have had the luxury, the privilege, the honour of being able to choose between the three fastest cars in Formula One for 2016.

Yet when he should have cemented his name alongside the likes of Vettel, Hamilton and Raikkonen, the 26-year-old Bottas has been unable to shrug off Felipe Massa, his 34-year-old team-mate.

After the first 12 rounds of the year, Bottas lies sixth in the drivers' championship, six points behind Massa, whom he led by 70 points at the same stage in 2014.

Although the difference between the Williams drivers must be viewed in the context of Bottas' early-season back injury, which ruled him out of the Australian Grand Prix and left him short of fitness until his fourth-place finish in April's Bahrain Grand Prix, the results in recent months have been telling.

Massa has beaten his team-mate in each of the last five races between the Austrian and Italian grands prix, and although Bottas has suffered bad luck during that period—a puncture dropped him from sixth to 13th in Hungary, while a drive-through penalty for Williams' pit-stop blunder in Belgium—the Brazilian's form has had a damaging effect on the Finn's career prospects.

While the news of Hamilton's contract extension with Mercedes on the eve of May's Monaco Grand Prix came as no surprise, ending Bottas' already slim hopes of succeeding the reigning world champion, his chances of replacing Raikkonen at Ferrari appeared to be far more promising.

But Ferrari's decision to retain Raikkonen ahead of the Belgian GP came after BBC Sport's Andrew Benson claimed the Prancing Horse's interest in Bottas had "waned."

Not because Raikkonen is the faster driver or due to his healthy relationship with Vettel—although that, as we noted ahead of his contract renewal, surely played a part—but because Bottas was "struggling this year to outpace" Massa, whom Ferrari released at the end of 2013 after four years spent walking the plank.

.@MassaFelipe19 & @ValtteriBottas would like to make an announcement... #WeAreRacinghttps://t.co/5CpUVZd7P2

— Atlassian Williams Racing (@WilliamsRacing) September 3, 2015

And Bottas, having appeared to have the top two teams in the business scrambling for his services at one stage, was left with only one option, and Williams confirmed the retention of their two drivers ahead of the Italian Grand Prix.

Had events played out differently, that weekend would have offered Bottas an initial glimpse of what it means to be a Ferrari driver at Monza, but it instead highlighted just how his reputation has been hurt.

The Williams drivers were evenly matched in Italy, qualifying just 0.187 seconds apart and crossing the finish line within 0.361 seconds of one another, per the official F1 website.

Yet the very fact it was Massa who found the extra performance when it mattered most to claim fifth on the grid and third place in the race—his second and the team's third podium finish of 2015—meant it was arguably the most damning result yet for Bottas.

According to F1 journalist Peter Windsor, Bottas was "very annoyed" after qualifying, having being denied the chance to benefit from Massa's tow on Monza's long straights, and the Finn's frustration is becoming increasingly obvious.

Where he would once adopt the persona of a team spokesman—see, for instance, his comments to Autosport's Ben Anderson and Ian Parkes following the British GP, where he spoke of learning curves and "how it is easy to say afterwards" that Williams made poor strategy calls—Bottas has become more openly critical of his employers.

After his mechanics fitted the wrong tyres to his car at Spa-Francorchamps, he told Autosport's Anderson and Lawrence Barretto the team "can't afford mistakes like this," adding they "should have got more points than what we did" even with a penalty, before telling the team's official website how he "expected more" from Williams in 2015.

All of this backs Windsor's suggestion that Bottas has "possibly become a little bit too much of a professional Formula One driver and not a racing driver" and lost his identity, that the characteristics that made him so compelling to watch a year ago have somehow been blunted.

While Williams may be accused of failing to make notable improvements from last season to this year, there is an argument that Bottas' own development has stalled.

Tough result yesterday. Good points for us as a team, but dissapointing result for me as a driver. Need to try and reset and then onto next!

— Valtteri Bottas (@ValtteriBottas) September 7, 2015

His mistake on the first lap at Silverstone, after all—where, having passed Hamilton, Bottas almost seemed to forget to defend the inside line at the following corner, allowing the Mercedes driver to reclaim second place with ease—was as clumsy as his brush with the wall in last year's Australian GP and his error in Q3 when pole position was up for grabs in Austria.

The FW37's tendency to understeer has undoubtedly played into the hands of Massa, who has not only rediscovered his confidence and consistency, but, as Williams head of performance engineering Rob Smedley told Autosport's Barretto, is "definitely" performing as well as he did in 2008, when he came within a point of the championship.

The man who very nearly became king, however, is currently too close for comfort for someone who has been regarded as a future world champion since his arrival in F1 in 2013.

Bottas' links to Mercedes—Toto Wolff, the Silver Arrows' executive director, is a member of his management team—means he is likely to secure a championship-winning seat in the coming years with either the German manufacturer or Ferrari, should they come calling upon the 35-year-old Raikkonen's eventual exit.

The first rule of F1, though, is to beat your team-mate, and Bottas should bear that in mind before allowing himself to dream of bigger and better things.

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Last November, in the midst of her team's best season in a decade, Williams deputy team principal Claire Williams said there was more to come.

She wasn't referring to last season, although both Williams cars finished on the podium at the next race. And she wasn't referring to this season, although the team has 30 more points now than at the same time last year.

Rather, Williams was looking two years down the road when she told the official Formula One website, "From where we are now, 2015 should almost be a dress rehearsal for a championship challenge in 2016."

But can a team that have won just one race since the beginning of the 2005 season actually challenge for an F1 title?

Williams' biggest advantage is their engine customer relationship with Mercedes. The Mercedes power unit is once again the class of the field, both in terms of power output and reliability.

But a dominant engine alone is not enough to win. Force India and Lotus are also using Mercedes engines and sit fifth and sixth in the constructors' standings.

Also, the fact that Williams are customers, rather than engine manufacturers, puts them at a disadvantage when it comes to integrating the power unit with their chassis.

In explaining why his team left Mercedes for Honda, McLaren CEO Ron Dennis said, per Autosport's Jonathan Noble:

You have no chance of winning the world championship if you are not receiving the best engines from whoever is manufacturing your engines.

And a modern grand prix engine at this moment in time is not about sheer power, it is about how you harvest the energy, it is about how you store the energy.

Effectively, if you don't have the control of that process, meaning access to source code, then you are not going to be able to stabilise your car in the entry to corners etc., and you lose lots of lap time.

Even though you have the same brand of engine that does not mean you have the ability to optimise the engine.

That has been the case for Williams, who have made a dramatic improvement since switching to Mercedes engines for 2014, but they have still generally lagged behind the Mercedes factory team.

However, "We have demonstrated in the past that we can win against manufacturer teams," Claire Williams told the official F1 website. "We have the same engine as the Mercedes cars have and it is up to us that our chassis is better than theirs. If we did not believe that we can win a world championship against our supplier team then we would not be here."

Another advantage Williams have is their driver pairing. Felipe Massa has revived his career since arriving at Grove and Valtteri Bottas is one of the sport's brightest young stars. Both have had brilliant performances over the last two years, but they are still missing a victory that would show Williams are truly back at the top of the sport.

And the team's advantage in this area could soon dissipate as well. Ferrari are rumoured to be interested in Bottas to replace his Finnish countryman Kimi Raikkonen. If Bottas does leave, there is no guarantee the team will be able to bring in a driver of equal talent immediately.

Meanwhile, the Italian newspaper Corriere dello Sport (h/t Sky Sports) claim a deal is already in place that will pay Williams €12 million to release Bottas from his contract for 2016.

And that brings us to one of Williams' disadvantages: money.

According to Business Book GP and El Mundo Deportivo (h/t Crash.net), Williams' budget is less than half that of the four highest-spending teams, including Mercedes and Ferrari. And while a massive budget alone does not guarantee success (see McLaren-Honda), more money certainly does provide an advantage when it comes to development.

At the same time, Williams are not exactly struggling financially. Their improved performance last year means more prize money and more opportunities for sponsorship revenue.

"Let's be clear," chief technical officer Pat Symonds told the official F1 website earlier this year, "Williams doesn't have a small budget—we have a very healthy budget. But some of the teams we are fighting do have extremely large budgets and when you are in a formula where attention to detail is everything, you better use your funds more smartly than others."

With Ferrari's resurgence this year and Mercedes' ongoing dominance, Williams will have to be very smart if they are going to challenge for a title any time soon.

But it is not impossible.

If Ferrari continue their improvement to the point where they can regularly challenge Mercedes in 2016, it will reduce the Silver Arrows' points haul. Closer battles on track will also mean more opportunities for mistakes for the Mercs, who have spent much of the past season-and-a-half well out in front.

And Williams have already demonstrated they are a match for Mercedes at certain tracks. For example, Massa and Bottas qualified first and second in Austria last year and they led the Mercs for the first part of this year's British Grand Prix.

Both times, the drivers were let down by overly conservative strategy calls, but the pace—at least on some weekends—is there.

"For sure, this season winning is really difficult and I think maybe next year Williams' performance is going to show more whether it is possible or not," Bottas recently said, according to Crash.net, echoing Claire Williams' assertion that 2016 is the real focus for the team.

Actually winning the championship may still be a dream, but it will not be a big surprise if Williams are at least in the title discussion.

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So, can he win it?

It's a question we've become accustomed to asking in the immediate aftermath of every Hungarian Grand Prix, such is the event's tendency to provide unpredictable races and surprise winners.

In each of the last three seasons, the dark horse in the championship battle has triumphed at the tight and twisty dust bowl that is the Hungaroring, supposedly injecting renewed momentum and seriousness into a title challenge just beginning to fall flat.

Lewis Hamilton's first Mercedes victory in the 2013 race came on the back of his third pole position in succession and barely 24 hours after he admitted how—due to the hot conditions, the fragile Pirelli tyres and his car's habit of charring its rubber—it "would be a miracle" if he won, per BBC Sport's Andrew Benson.

If Hamilton managed to reach the top step of the podium when he felt needed divine intervention, just what could he achieve on days when the odds were stacked in his favour?

In 2014, meanwhile, Daniel Ricciardo told Sky Sports News how the championship—against the backdrop of the double-points finale in Abu Dhabi—was reappearing on his radar after the Red Bull driver's second victory in five races.

This year, it is the turn of Sebastian Vettel to dare to dream after claiming his second win (and seventh podium) of the season in Hungary, where, after snatching the lead at the first corner, the four-time world champion controlled the race from start to finish.

If Hamilton was thought to be in contention for the title after his 2013 win, which moved him to within 48 points of the championship leader—and Ricciardo fancied his chances 12 months ago, despite a 71-point deficit to then-leader Nico Rosberg—surely Vettel, now just 42 points away from the summit of the standings, must be in with a shot.

With an absence of track action, and therefore little to discuss, over the three weeks until the Belgian Grand Prix, we will doubtlessly hear plenty of reasons why Vettel can indeed secure his fifth title in his first season with Ferrari. 

Sebastian Vettel says Ferrari will try to "make the impossible possible" and win the F1 title: http://t.co/QNGj4mT4dF pic.twitter.com/UYZIrtrLvy

— BBC Sport (@BBCSport) July 27, 2015

If he maintains the consistency he has displayed for much of the opening 10 races. If Mercedes continue to make lacklustre starts, or develop those long-overdue reliability problems. If Hamilton and Rosberg have another Spa 2014 moment. If Vettel carries on winning whenever his rivals falter.

Yet, just as the title was destined to go to Seb in 2013, and the championship was always going to come down to a duel between the Mercedes drivers a year ago, it is almost certain that Rosberg and Hamilton will once again battle exclusively for the crown across the final nine races of 2015. 

And having achieved their goal of two wins in 2015—a target team principal Maurizio Arrivabene set in pre-season, per ESPN F1's Nate Saunders—there must be a temptation for Vettel and Ferrari, like Mercedes exactly two years ago, to shift their focus to next season in the hope of launching a genuine title assault in 2016.

Should Ferrari, after making a commendable recovery from their winless 2014 campaign, adopt a long-term approach and prioritise 2016, the final year of the current chassis regulations, it is possible that Williams could emerge as the biggest threat to Mercedes in the latter stages of this season.

It was, after all, in the second half of the campaign that Williams enjoyed their strongest run of results of 2014, with Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa securing a combined total of six top-three finishes, including a double-podium finish in Abu Dhabi, in the final eight races.

With this year's FW37 sharing many of the strengths of the FW36—the all-conquering Mercedes power unit and its low-downforce configuration being its two most notable traits—Williams can expect to be competitive at the vast majority of the remaining venues, particularly at Spa-Francorchamps and Monza.

Very unluky race with a puncture in the end. No points.. We'll be back in Spa! #CiaoJules #JB17 #HungarianGP #F1 pic.twitter.com/35n5Ycs7FS

— Valtteri Bottas (@ValtteriBottas) July 26, 2015

The team have struggled painfully at high-downforce circuits this year, failing to score a point at Monaco and the Hungaroring (although it must be said Bottas was running sixth in Budapest before being hit by Max Verstappen, suffering a puncture, on Lap 49).

But Williams' surprisingly strong performance at the Singapore street circuit in 2014, where Massa and Bottas ran fifth and seventh respectively until the final lap, should inspire confidence even ahead of what should be their most challenging remaining weekend.

Williams' anticipation ahead of the second half of the season was encapsulated by Rob Smedley, the head of vehicle performance, who explained after the British GP how the team were hoping to overtake Ferrari in the constructors' standings, telling Autosport's Lawrence Barretto:

We are constantly bringing new bits to every grand prix in all areas of the car.

The team is developing the car in small incremental steps and there is more to come.

We are trying more and more to put ourselves into a more favourable position as we want to try and get second position in the championship—that is our target now.

Now 85 points adrift of the Prancing Horse, it is highly doubtful that Williams will meet that target this season.

But like the Romain Grosjean-led Lotus outfit of 2013, Williams could be elevated to the position of the second-fastest team if those around them decide to concentrate on bigger and better things.

While you would still regard Vettel and Ferrari as more likely to add another victory to their tally in the second half of the season, such is the strength of their partnership, Williams will exert sustained pressure on Mercedes, and give Hamilton and Rosberg the biggest fright over the remaining nine races of 2015.

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After scoring four podium finishes in the final five races of the 2014 Formula One season, it may seem like Williams have taken a step back this year. So far, through four races in the 2015 season, their best results are two fourth-place finishes.

But going back to the beginning of 2014, the Grove-based team is actually well ahead of their scoring pace. After four races last year, Williams had 36 points and were sitting sixth in the constructors' standings.

This year, despite Valtteri Bottas missing the Australian Grand Prix with a back injury (and with no time to replace him), Williams already have 61 points and are third in the Constructors' Championship.

With that in mind, what should we expect from Williams for the rest of the season? Will they be able to claw their way back to regular podium finishes and take the fight to Ferrari and perhaps even Mercedes? Or will they tumble back into the clutches of Red Bull, if they can ever get their Renault engine operating at something approaching peak performance?

During the 2014 preseason, Williams looked to be the revelation of the year. Still, in our season preview, I wrote that I did not expect their performance advantage to last. Specifically, I said:

The boys (and girls) from Grove are getting lots of hype and, yes, the Martini livery looks great, but I can't see Williams winning the development race against the bigger-budget teams as the season progresses. They may have a surprise result or two early (remember when Pastor Maldonado won the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix?), but it will not last.

Of course, the opposite happened—the team only got stronger as the season progressed. Williams did not have any great results until Austria—the eighth round of the season—when Felipe Massa started from pole position and Bottas took the team's first podium in more than two years.

In an interview with the official F1 website before the season, Williams chief technical officer Pat Symonds said: "It was a bit of a shame that Williams didn't win a race along the way, so it would be nice to win this year. And I think we can finish in the top three again. I set myself aspirational targets and my aspiration target for this season is being better than we were in 2014."

So far, so good. But, perhaps unusually in a sport where the difference between success and failure can literally be measured in hundredths of a second, Williams are also taking a longer-term approach.

At the end of 2014, deputy team principal Claire Williams told the official F1 site that "from where we are now, 2015 should almost be a dress rehearsal for a championship challenge in 2016."

If that remains the goal, then the team's incremental improvement compared to this time last year certainly seems positive.

But a championship challenge is impossible without regular race victories, and Williams' absolute pace is still a long way off Mercedes'. Here is the gap from the race winner to the top Williams car at each grand prix so far this year compared with the same races last season (the 2015 Chinese Grand Prix gap is from the end of Lap 53, the final racing lap before the safety car was called out):

	Australia	Malaysia	China	Bahrain
2014	+47.639s	+1m 25.076s	+58.145s	+31.265s
2015	+38.196s	+1m 10.409s	+1m 02.301s	+42.957s

If the goal is to be fighting at the front in 2016, the pace of development at Grove will need to increase. Last week, per Autosport's Lawrence Barretto, head of vehicle performance Rob Smedley acknowledged that:

We need to develop the whole package faster and at a higher rate if we are going to catch the people in front. That is our aim.

You [also] have to bear in mind that you have a huge and very technically-able organisation in Red Bull behind us, who will eventually get their act together.

They will be a lot stronger than they are now, so we need to be looking forward and keeping an eye on what is going behind us.

Williams' biggest disadvantage compared to those teams is money. Their budget is not small, but Red Bull's, Ferrari's and Mercedes' are huge. On Monday, Williams announced a loss of £34.3 million in 2014, although, as the team's press release explains, the losses were expected. Still, in a spending war, Williams will not be able to compete with the really big teams.

Going forward, though, there is reason for optimism. After qualifying in Bahrain, Bottas explained to the official F1 site that Williams' performance is improving as the team gets better at managing their tyre temperatures.

The Spanish Grand Prix is next, on May 10, and it is also the site of Williams' last victory, in 2012. Without reliability problems for Mercedes, even a podium will be difficult to achieve this year, but Williams do appear on the right track. Third in the Constructors' Championship is certainly realistic and, with a bit of luck, their next victory may not be far away.

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Despite Bernie Ecclestone's assertion that, "It is inevitable that there will be another female [Formula One] driver," as reported by Luke Smith and Christian Sylt in Forbes, recent developments mean a woman on the F1 starting grid is anything but inevitable—at least in the near future.

Williams test driver Susie Wolff is currently the closest female driver to a race seat. Last season, she became the first woman since 1992 to take part in an official F1 session during free practice at the British Grand Prix. For 2015, she was promoted from reserve driver to test driver, with the promise of further practice outings.

Then, at the season-opening Australian Grand Prix last week, Williams race driver Valtteri Bottas injured his back during qualifying and was unable to race. The F1 sporting regulations state that any driver substitutions must be made before qualifying, so Wolff was ineligible to race in Melbourne.

But surely if Bottas is still injured next weekend, when the teams travel to Malaysia, Wolff will get the race seat there, right? That's what all those test and practice sessions and hundreds of hours in the simulator are for, no?

A full-time race seat at this point is highly unlikely for the 32-year-old Scot, but a one-off to replace an injured team-mate would be the perfect opportunity to get her some race experience.

Not so fast.

"Susie Wolff is our test driver not our reserve driver, "deputy team principal Claire Williams told the BBC in Australia. 

"I don't want to think about what we will do if he's not fit," she continued. "But clearly we'd have reserve drivers," although they don't have one right now.

In other words, for a one-race cameo, it seems the team would be open to bringing in a new driver with no experience in the Williams FW37 rather than use Wolff, who drove the car in preseason testing. And that, despite the massive exposure the team would gain from letting a female driver race.

Meanwhile, Simona de Silvestro, who was training for a potential race seat at Sauber in 2014—or so the press releases said—is now back in IndyCar.

Of all the women involved in F1 recently, the 26-year-old Swiss driver had the best chance of actually starting a grand prix, due to her superior racing pedigree. Unfortunately, she ran into money problems last season, per Autosport's Ben Anderson.

And then there is Carmen Jorda, Lotus' new development driver. While having a larger pool of female talent to draw from makes it more likely that one of them will eventually get an F1 drive, it could be argued that Jorda actually sets back the cause of female drivers.

In three years of GP3 racing, she did not score one point—her best finish was 13th. Last year, Jorda's best finish was 17th before Dean Stoneman replaced her for the final two rounds of the season. He won the feature race at both events.

One Step Closer - Formula 1 dream gets closer for @CarmenJorda: http://t.co/rkUpVFk730#F1 #BienvenidaCarmen pic.twitter.com/CWqz2NBOmZ

— BWT Alpine Formula One Team (@AlpineF1Team) February 26, 2015

In 10 years of car racing, per driverdb.com, Jorda has yet to win a single race. With teams clearly already reticent to give female drivers a chance, it's unfortunate that many of them could potentially have their prospects harmed further in those teams' eyes by Jorda's lack of success.

As long as female drivers are used as a gimmick, with no intention of actually letting them race, it will be harder for the serious racers among them to be taken seriously.

It is surprising that teams have not spent more time identifying talented young girls and nurturing their careers the way they do with young male drivers. There will be huge marketing benefits for the team that does bring a successful female racer into F1—first, they just have to find her.

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Just like the "Touch of Gray" hair colour guy, Williams may have found the ideal mix of experience and youthful energy with their driver pairing of Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas.

Massa came to Williams last season after eight years at Ferrari and immediately said he felt at home with the Grove-based team. "I feel happier because I'm having a great time," he told Crash.net's Chris Medland last September.

Bottas is entering his third Formula One season, but has already shown the speed of a future champion. He announced his potential with a brilliant qualifying performance on a wet Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve at the 2013 Canadian Grand Prix, and followed it up with six podium finishes and fourth in the drivers' championship in 2014.

Although Bottas outscored Massa 186 to 134 last season, their relative performance was somewhat closer. Massa was ahead of Bottas in eight of the 14 races they both finished. However, Massa also seemed to be a magnet for other cars, and he was put out of four races in collisions with Kamui Kobayashi, Sergio Perez, Kimi Raikkonen and Kevin Magnussen.

Massa also demonstrated that he is still capable of brilliant performances—something that had become rare from the Brazilian since his serious 2009 accident in Hungary. In Austria last year, he grabbed pole position, the only one all season that was not taken by Mercedes. Then, at the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Massa nearly caught Lewis Hamilton for the victory as the Brit sought to preserve his car.

But despite Massa's pole, Bottas still has the edge in one-lap speed, out-qualifying the Brazilian 13 times in 19 races. Only Fernando Alonso had a better qualifying record against his team-mate.

For 2015, Massa's one big advantage—his experience—is starting to wane. He is 33 years old, with 210 grand prix starts and 11 victories on his record, but now Bottas, who is 25, has two full seasons and 39 grands prix of experience.

Still, Massa's experience developing cars will be key for Williams as they look to consolidate and increase the gains they made last season, jumping from ninth to third in the constructors' championship. Williams' ability to keep up in the development race on a limited budget (at least compared to the likes of Mercedes and Red Bull) will determine whether the team has truly made it back to the F1 elite, or whether they will fall back to the midfield.

At the same time, it cannot be overlooked that Massa has not been the same driver since the Hungaroring accident. Up to that point, he had won 11 of his 116 races and came within one lap of winning the 2008 world championship. He then missed the final eight races of 2009 while he recovered.

Since his return, he has no wins and 11 podiums in 96 races. In his last four years at Ferrari, his team-mate Alonso had 11 victories and 42 podium finishes.

Bottas is certainly the future at Williams, but Massa is not resigned to a No. 2 driver role. In an interview last year for the official F1 website, Massa was asked if he had given up his hope of winning a title. "Never," he responded. "When I do that I will stop being in Formula One. When you give up your hunger for success you are not racing full heartedly any more. Just to be there, that is not my style. I want to win races again."

If you had to pick one of the Williams drivers to snatch a victory from Mercedes in 2015, though, the smart money would be on Bottas.

Overall, the team firmly believes they are on the right track. Last November, deputy team principal Claire Williams told the official F1 site that, "from where we are now, 2015 should almost be a dress rehearsal for a championship challenge in 2016."

That is an ambitious goal, but no one would have predicted Williams to finish third last season, either.

A run like they achieved in the mid-1990s—five constructors' titles in six years—is unlikely to happen again, but after a difficult decade, the future is bright in Grove. With Bottas and Massa leading the way, what limits can be placed on Williams' potential?

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