Old Ghosts Continue to Haunt Maple Leafs as Senators Stay Alive
TORONTO—A franchise's history doesn’t dictate its future, but when it comes to the Toronto Maple Leafs and their playoff record, the past has a way of lingering that makes you wonder if they need a team exorcist.
The Maple Leafs had the opportunity to knock out the Ottawa Senators in Game 5 of their first-round playoff series at home and prepare for a second-round date with the Tampa Bay Lightning or Florida Panthers.
Instead, the Senators took home a 4-0 win to force Game 6 back in Ottawa on Thursday and reintroduce the current Maple Leafs to the wicked spirits that undid Stanley Cup dreams of recent years past.
“We’re up 3-2 in the series, so I think we’re fine,” Maple Leafs defenseman Chris Tanev said. “We’re going to prepare for our game Thursday, and we’ll make the adjustments that we need to.”
The looming dread that surrounds the team from the fan base and certainly from opposing fans and everyone else around hockey isn’t something a new-to-the-Maple-Leafs guy like Tanev cares about or maybe is even aware of. But it’s there and trying to keep that and the past out of their collective headspace gets a lot harder when history, very recent history, is so hard to forget.
Not being able to put away a team when they’ve had the opportunity has been an unfortunate staple for the Maple Leafs since Auston Matthews arrived. They’re 1-13 in potential elimination games, which is a deeply negative statistic. If there’s a silver lining to that horrendous record, the one win came in 2023 in Game 6 against the Lightning that finally got the “haven’t gotten out of the first round since 2004” monkey off their back.
Leafs players have been unwaveringly confident about their talent and who they are all along, and that much hasn’t changed now. Even after past playoff disappointments when the question of whether or not they should break up their “Big Four” of Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares, their confidence in who they are and what they can do has been strong despite the repetitive results.
“It’s not supposed to be easy,” Marner said. “This is never supposed to be easy, so we knew it was going to be a challenge. We knew it was never going to be easy. They pushed back the last two games and now we’ve got to go back into their building and play our best game and we’ve been a great road team all year. We have confidence in this group.”
The Leafs have been road warriors this season, and their 25-13-3 record proves that. The flipside of that is how good the Senators have been at home. Ottawa went 27-11-3 at Canadian Tire Center in the regular season and staved off elimination there in Game 4 with a 4-3 overtime win.
With how raucous the home crowd was in Games 3 and 4, with the Leafs coming back to Ottawa now with pressure firmly in place, it’s a less-than-ideal setting for Toronto to try and stave off what would be a deeply foreboding Game 7 on Saturday.
“I expect pure insanity, that’s for sure,” Senators captain Brady Tkachuk said. “(The fans) know how important they are. They know how much juice they give us and how we just want to represent them well. When they’re buzzing like that, I can’t really describe yet how it feels for me and how it feels for this whole group and just the amount of energy we get off that.”
The playoffs aren’t meant to be easy, but the Leafs have been experts at making them difficult for themselves. Their effort in Game 5 was eerily familiar to past potential put-away games. The emotion wasn’t there, the desire to get to the net was lacking, the mistakes piled up, and when there were chances, Linus Ullmark snuffed them out and made 29 saves for his first career playoff shutout.
Even though the Senators are the team down in the series, momentum is on their side. The shadows and specters of Toronto’s past playoff failures are there to support it, too.
“You can feel great about yourself, or you can feel (crappy) about yourself as well, or the team or where you’re at,” Senators coach Travis Green said. “Those are the types of things we will talk to our team throughout the season. I think it’s paying dividends now, but again, we’ve won two games. We’re going to enjoy it now for a couple of hours and tomorrow reset. We’re going to have to play our (butts) off and play better in Game 6 to get another game down here.”
Back in 2013, the Maple Leafs infamously blew a 4-1 lead in Game 7 to the Boston Bruins before losing 5-4 in overtime. No one from that Leafs team has a role with the current team, but the last thing they want to do is create their haunting to replace, “It was 4-1…” in everyone’s memory.
“I think everybody’s fine in here,” Matthews said. “The playoffs, it’s a rollercoaster. It’s going to be ups and downs and it’s about staying as even-keeled as you possibly can and making adjustments when you need to. (It’s) just about everybody digging in, looking in the mirror and just being a little bit better.”
Senators vs. Maple Leafs Betting Odds, Player Props, Picks for April 22
The Toronto Maple Leafs' top two lines controlled Game 1 of their first-round series with the Ottawa Senators.
Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and John Tavares all had two points each in the 6-2 win.
The same level of dominance will carry over into Tuesday’s Game 2, especially with the second line led by Nylander and Tavares.
Ottawa doesn't have the overall firepower to keep up with the Nylander-Tavares line, or the top unit led by Matthews and Marner. That sets up for the Leafs to take a 2-0 lead on home ice.
William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-135)
Nylander had 53 more shots on goal at home compared to the road in the regular season.
The 28-year-old only had two attempts on target in Game 1, but that is more of an outlier to his overall playoff trend.
Nylander is 19-4 to the over 2.5 SOG in his last 23 playoff games dating back to the start of the 2022 postseason.
The Swede is more than capable of producing those attempts at even strength, but he will also get a boost from shots on the power play. Toronto had six power-play opportunities in Game 1 against an Ottawa team that had the fourth-most penalty minutes in the regular season among playoff teams.
John Tavares Over 0.5 Points (-142)
Tavares' point prop is a bit cheaper than Nylander at -175, so that's the target, even though both players will likely get on the score sheet.
Tavares had six shots on goal in Game 1, but that's on the high end compared to his recent playoff history.
If Nylander is ripping shots toward the Senators net, Tavares will likely be part of the setup to get him the puck.
Tavares is also on Toronto's top power play unit with Matthews, Nylander, Marner and Matthew Knies.
With Ottawa's propensity to commit penalties still in play, Tavares will get a few chances to record a point on the man advantage, as well as with Nylander at even strength.
Toronto Money Line (-166)
Toronto's top six forwards were too good for the Senators in Game 1.
Those players combined to contribute on five of the six goals on Sunday night, with three of those tallies coming on the power play.
Ottawa just doesn't have the talent to keep up with the Leafs if their top six is playing at that high of a level.
The Senators as a whole, not just Brady Tkackuk, have to prove they can rise to Toronto's level. If not, the Senators will be one of the first teams eliminated from the postseason.
Auston Matthews Expects to Return for Maple Leafs vs. Lightning After Injury Recovery
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews says he plans to play on Saturday against the Tampa Bay Lightning after missing nine straight games with an upper-body injury.
"In my mind, I'm playing tomorrow and I'm excited to be back," Matthews said after Friday's practice, per Kevin McGran of the Toronto Star.
Matthews last played on Nov. 3, when he skated more than 22 minutes in an overtime loss to the Minnesota Wild. He was placed on injured reserve five days later.
"I think just like the first 10 minutes, I'll try to get my feet moving and get some puck touches, keep things simple and just go from there... obviously there's going to be a little bit of rust," Matthews said on Friday, per McGran.
Leafs general manager Brad Treliving told reporters on Nov. 19 that Matthews was visiting a doctor in Germany "more as a general checkup, but also to get some work done on this thing."
Matthews later told reporters that he was working to address an injury that had "flared up" during the preseason, per The Athletic's Joshua Kloke.
"I thought it was time to take a step back, re-evaluate, and take it day by day," Matthews said on Nov. 23, per Kloke. "And it hasn't necessarily gotten worse, but it wasn't really getting better. So I wanted to be proactive."
Matthews continued: "I wouldn't call it a mistake, but I guess the mistake I made in the past is maybe coming back, you want to get back and you start to feel good and then you try to jump back into the game and maybe you're not quite ready yet. So I think with this, just wanted to be mindful and make sure that I'm feeling back as close to 100 percent before we start getting back into game situations and stuff like that, so it's not something that prolongs throughout the season."
Neither the Leafs nor Matthews have clarified if the injury involves the forward's left wrist, on which he reportedly underwent procedures in 2021 and 2022.
Matthews, who won his third Rocket Richard trophy last season after leading the NHL with 69 goals, was scoring at a relatively slow pace with five goal in 13 contests prior to his absence.
The Leafs have stayed afloat without him, winning seven of nine games over the stretch to hang on to the No. 2 slot in the Atlantic Division. That could change on Sunday should the Lightning (12-8-2) leapfrog the Leafs (13-7-2) with a win.
Toronto will hope the return of a healthier Matthews can help lead the team to victory when the puck drops on Saturday night at 7 p.m. ET.
Auston Matthews Placed on IR by Maple Leafs with Upper-Body Injury
Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews has been placed on the injured reserve with an upper-body injury, the team announced on Friday. The move is retroactive to Nov. 3.
Head coach Craig Berube had already told reporters Matthews would miss a second straight game as the Leafs faced the Detroit Red Wings on Friday night. The IR designation means Matthews will also be sidelined for Saturday's contest against the visiting Montreal Canadiens.
Matthews will be eligible to return before the Leafs face the Ottawa Senators at home on Tuesday.
The move allows the Leafs to use the open roster spot to recall Connor Dewar, who has been rehabbing in the AHL from offseason surgery.
Berube has described Matthews' injury as a "day-to-day" issue that is not related to his 2021 wrist surgery, per NHL.com's Dave McCarthy.
Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman also reported last year that Matthews "may have had another, minor procedure" on his wrist in 2022.
While saying this newest injury was not related to those wrist issues, Berube told reporters that Matthews has been "fighting through it a little bit" through the early stretch of the season.
Matthews has recorded five goals and 11 points in 13 games this season, a relatively slow start for a player who won his third Rocket Richard trophy with a career-high 69 goals last year.
He last played for the Leafs on Sunday, when he registered an assist in a 2-1 overtime loss to the Minnesota Wild.
In Matthews' absence, third-line center Max Domi centered the first line between Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies against the Bruins.
The Leafs leaned heavily on special teams in the win, going 6-for-6 on the penalty kill while scoring three power-play goals. The 4-0 victory marked a breakthrough for the Toronto power play, which ranked last in the NHL with a 7.9 percent success rate before Tuesday.
Pontus Holmberg slid from wing to center on the third line to cover for Domi in the win, while David Kämpf remained the team's fourth-line center. Dewar could potentially slot in on Kämpf's wing should the Leafs give him the nod on Friday night.
Matthews was sidelined for just one contest last season with what the Leafs reported was the flu, marking his most games played since his 2016-17 Calder Trophy campaign. He is now slated to miss a minimum of three games in 2024-25.
The Leafs have gone 35-19-2 in the regular season without Matthews and won two playoff games without him last spring, but Max Pacioretty emphasized to reporters on Thursday that there is "no replacing" the best even-strength scorer in the NHL. Toronto will hope to get him back in the lineup as soon as possible as they look to improve their 7-5-2 season-opening record and challenge the Florida Panthers for the Atlantic Division lead.
Maple Leafs, Rangers, Canadiens Top Sportico's 2024 NHL Franchise Valuation Rankings
Sportico named the Toronto Maple Leafs the NHL's most valuable franchise for a fourth consecutive year on Wednesday.
According to Sportico, the Leafs are worth $3.66 billion, placing them ahead of the New York Rangers ($3.25 billion) and the Montreal Canadiens ($2.93 billion). The entire top 10 is as follows:
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: $3.66 billion
2. New York Rangers: $3.25 billion
3. Montreal Canadiens: $2.93 billion
4. Boston Bruins: $2.67 billion
5. Los Angeles King: $2.5 billion
6. Chicago Blackhawks: $2.45 billion
7. Edmonton Oilers: $2.4 billion
8. Philadelphia Flyers: $2.29 billion
9. Washington Capitals: $1.86 billion
10. Detroit Red Wings: $1.85 billion
For the first time since Sportico began tracking NHL team valuations, every franchise is worth at least $1 billion with the the Columbus Blue Jackets being the least valuable franchise at $1.06 billion.
Every team experienced growth of at least 19 percent from 2023 to 2024, and many teams grew significantly more than that.
No franchise saw its value increase more than the Utah Hockey Club, which is the new identity of the Arizona Coyotes.
The Coyotes were the least valuable franchise in the NHL by a significant margin last year with a valuation of $675 million, but the move to Utah saw the organization's value increase by a league-high 78 percent, placing it 28th in the NHL with a valuation of $1.2 billion.
While the Maple Leafs have not won a Stanley Cup since 1967, there place atop the franchise value list comes as little surprise.
The Maple Leafs play in the biggest market in the hockey-obsessed nation of Canada, plus they have fielded a strong team for several years despite a lack of playoff success.
Led by the likes of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, the Leafs have made eight straight postseason appearances, but they have only made it out of the first round once during that time.
The Rangers have enjoyed more recent success, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals in 2022 and 2024, but they have no won a Cup since 1994.
Similarly, the Canadiens' last Cup win came in 1993, which happens to be the last time a Canadian team hoisted Lord Stanley's Cup.
As is the case with most professional sports franchises, a strong bottom line is not necessarily an indicator of on-ice success in the NHL, although it can help.
The Edmonton Oilers saw their valuation grow by 51 percent over the past year after reaching the Stanley Cup Final last season, and the Florida Panthers experienced 37 percent growth after beating the Oilers to win their first Cup.