N/A
Valtteri Bottas of Mercedes set the fastest lap of Formula One pre-season testing so far in Wednesday's morning session, posting a time of one minute, 19.705 seconds at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in Barcelona, Spain.
The former Williams driver enjoyed an ideal morning as he completed 75 laps on a range of tyres before handing over to Lewis Hamilton for the afternoon. The Briton focused on distance over speed during his run, utilising the soft tyre compound to tot up 95 laps.
Once again, it’s Ferrari that look like the most likely challengers to the Silver Arrows, with Sebastian Vettel the quickest driver on the soft compound at the end of the day, just two tenths back on Bottas. However, the Scuderia’s day did end on a downer, with Vettel breaking down in the latter stages.
Here’s a look back at how the day panned out, including the times in full from both sessions.
Wednesday Recap
Here's a look at the timings following the early Day 3 testing action in Spain, per the FIA:
Vettel was the early pace-setter on Wednesday morning after his Ferrari team-mate Kimi Raikkonen had topped the timesheets on Tuesday.
The German four-time world champion was quicker than Bottas early on despite being on medium tyres compared to soft, with commentator Ben Edwards noting the impressive run:
However, Bottas then posted the quickest lap of the week so far as he registered a 1:20.107.
Per BBC Sport's Andrew Benson, it was a fairly remarkable reduction on Raikkonen's quickest time from Tuesday:
And the Finn then went even faster as he posted a lap of 1:19.838 on the supersoft tyres and 1:19.705 on the ultrasofts.
The Mercedes team had a fairly auspicious visitor to the garage on Wednesday in the shape of 2016 world champion Nico Rosberg:
Away from Mercedes, it was a good morning for Renault as Jolyon Palmer—who drew a red flag early in the session when he hit the gravel at Turn 3—moved into third place late on after a 1:21.396 lap, per F1:
Meanwhile, there was finally some better news for McLaren after a torrid first two days of testing in which they endured numerous troubles with their Honda engine, per Benson.
Two-time world champion Fernando Alonso enjoyed an issue-free morning of action and was able to get some laps under his belt, although his McLaren was still some way off the pace as he finished eighth fastest.
After the chequered flag, Williams rookie Lance Stroll found himself in the gravel for the second time in testing after logging 55 laps on Wednesday morning and had to be recovered.
Afternoon Session
These are the standings at the end of the afternoon session:
While Bottas’ focus was on speed in the morning, Hamilton’s was on distance in the afternoon, with the Mercedes team gathering plenty of data thanks to his 95 laps out on track.
In doing so, the Silver Arrows asserted their position as the team that’s likely to be on top once again in 2017. Indeed, per the team’s official Twitter feed, only external factors seemed to be capable of putting a halt to Hamilton’s rhythm in the afternoon:
The rest of the field played catchup again, with Vettel impressing during his full day out on track.
Encouragingly, he was also able to dip under the 1:20 mark and did so, impressively, on the soft compound too; to be within such close proximity to Bottas on a slower tyre certainly raised a few eyebrows, as did the fact he was 0.155 seconds better than the Mercedes man’s best effort on the same compound.
But his day did end with a blemish, as a mechanical problem saw the German’s Ferrari break down on the main straight and bring out a red flag.
Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo remained in the top three spots too and during the interval, offered this insight into the testing day:
However, the team were unable to make the most of the afternoon session, as they reported that the "investigation of an exhaust issue has hampered our afternoon running." Eventually, the Australian would have been disappointed to only have mustered 22 laps in the second stanza.
After a tough day on Tuesday, McLaren and Alonso were able to find some reliability. Although, as noted by Benson, they’re a long way back off the elite teams in terms of pace:
Stroll’s rough week also continued, as he spun off for the third time in two days, prompting the aforementioned red flag. As we can see here, the youngster wasn’t best pleased as he was helped from his car:
Renault enjoyed an impressive day after some problems on Tuesday, with Palmer and Nico Hulkenberg setting the fourth and fifth fastest times on Wednesday, respectively, as well hammering in a combined 93 laps on Day 3 in Barcelona.
When the inevitable question came, Formula One's latest boy wonder dealt with it as well as he possibly could.
As deputy team principal Claire Williams mused, per Sky Sports, the team were "really, really excited" as they announced their 2017 driver lineup on Thursday morning, confirming teenager Lance Stroll would replace the retiring Felipe Massa at the end of this season.
The new partnership between Stroll and Valtteri Bottas, she declared, would mark "a new chapter in Williams' history," generating renewed interest in a team who have been all too easy to overlook over the last two years.
Ladies and gentlemen our 2017 driver line-up... #WeAreRacing #F1 pic.twitter.com/jMfwyxmvYk
— WILLIAMS RACING (@WilliamsRacing) November 3, 2016
Yet the question—the question that needed to be asked—risked darkening the mood slightly, and there was no easy way of putting it.
Was there a danger that Stroll—son of Lawrence, the fashion tycoon worth $2.4 billion, according to Forbes—would be dismissed as little more than a pay driver of the highest order?
"Everyone has their own opinion, I can't change that," the 18-year-old explained, per Sky Sports. "I come from money, I'm not going to deny that, but I believe I've earned my shot in F1 because I've won every championship that I've competed in."
True, Stroll has won every series he has participated in—culminating in his FIA European Formula Three triumph in 2016 when, in a category that Max Verstappen once contested in and Esteban Ocon conquered in 2014, he won 14 of a possible 30 races and secured the title by almost 200 points.
But here's the thing, the lingering suspicion clouding almost every judgement of the Canadian: Was Stroll's success in junior single-seater racing a natural result of his vast talent behind the wheel? Or did his sheer wealth put him in a position where it was near-impossible to fail?
That was why the news of Stroll's promotion from a development-driver role was greeted with so much discomfort, so much caution, so much cynicism, and why it will be difficult to assess his true credentials until the beginning of 2017 at the earliest.
Because, make no mistake, Daddy Stroll's money, power and influence have been at the root of the youngster's achievements to date.
As reported by Germany's Auto Motor und Sport (h/t Autoweek), Stroll Sr.'s investment in the highly successful Prema F3 team guaranteed his son No. 1 status in 2016, with rival George Russell expressing his frustration with Stroll's treatment after the first round of the season, per Autosport's Marcus Simmons.
Mentored by Luca Baldisserri, the former Ferrari sporting director who followed him from the Prancing Horse's young-driver scheme at the end of 2015, Stroll benefited from F1 expertise at a junior level, providing him with a clear advantage over his fellow competitors.
As Stroll took care of business on the track, his father reportedly paid the bill for a state-of-the-art simulator to be constructed at Williams' factory, which—get this—was off-limits to Bottas and Massa, as it only replicated the sights, sounds and speeds of an F3 cockpit.
And when it became clear he would be succeeding Massa, Stroll began a private test program with a 2014-specification Williams car, taking him, 20 Williams employees, five Mercedes engineers and two specifically built Mercedes engines anywhere from Silverstone and Monza to Yas Marina and the Sochi Autodrom.
That mileage will ensure Stroll will be among the best-prepared debutants of the modern era, but just how beneficial will all those laps be against the backdrop of the significant regulation changes in 2017?
Increased downforce levels and wider tyres will make the cars more physical to drive than at any stage over the last decade in 2017, potentially dispelling the long-held myth that new rules offer an ideal opportunity to throw a rookie in at the deep end.
Although that may be nothing a Stroll-built, Lance-only gym couldn't solve, the new regulations could expose the drivers in their late teens and early 20s—including Stroll, Verstappen and Ocon—whose bodies are still in the process of maturing.
And if that proves to be the case and the new-generation cars are too brutish for a teenager to manhandle around Spain's Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya for 66 laps on a warm, mid-May afternoon, Williams' signing of the second-youngest driver in F1 history could be irresponsible in the extreme.
Especially when the likes of, say, 24-year-old Felipe Nasr—best described by F1 journalist Peter Windsor as a hybrid of Massa and Bottas—and 22-year-old Pascal Wehrlein would have jumped at the chance to race a Williams FW40, arrived with decent commercial advantages and represented much safer bets.
The Stroll subsidy—worth around £30 million, according to Craig Slater of Sky Sports News HQ television—will come in handy for Williams, whose slide from being Mercedes' closest challengers to a probable fifth in the championship in two years is the price they have paid for being a modestly backed independent team.
Yet while that considerable boost in funds will assist the development of their cars, taking a punt on a still-unproven talent is an almighty risk Williams—so often criticised for their cautious, unadventurous decision-making in recent seasons—didn't need to take.
For every Claire Williams who tells the team's official website how Stroll is a mature, talented and enthusiastic young man, there will be someone uploading that footage of him causing a huge crash at Monza.
For every Toto Wolff who insists "people don't recognise how good he really is" and argues he is even more mature than Verstappen, per Motorsport.com's Rene Fagnan, there will be somebody who shows you that clip of him suddenly changing direction on the Kemmel Straight at Spa (sound familiar?).
In truth, nobody quite knows just how good Stroll is and how good he could become, whether this particular rich kid's hobby has gone way too far or whether he will soon emerge as a solid grand prix driver, a potential race-winner and even a world champion.
But one thing is for sure: As he competes in the pinnacle of motorsport alongside a driver as fast and consistent as Bottas, there will be no place to hide.
The five red lights went out and Valtteri Bottas leaped off the line, instantly nudging ahead of Daniel Ricciardo's Red Bull and sidestepping Kimi Raikkonen's slow-starting Ferrari.
As he sped past the piece of track reserved for the sister Ferrari of Sebastian Vettel, whose engine failure on the formation lap left him unable to start a race for the first time in his Formula One career, just two cars separated the man who started sixth from the lead of the Bahrain Grand Prix.
It was at that point—as Lewis Hamilton, determined to make up for yet another poor getaway from pole position, hounded the rear of Nico Rosberg's car and positioned himself on the outside of his Mercedes team-mate—when Bottas faced a dilemma.
With a large gap appearing on the inside of the right-hand hairpin of Turn 1, would Bottas adopt an aggressive approach in an attempt to steal an extra position?
Or—with a podium position already in his grasp—would he hold back, consolidate third place through the opening sequence of corners, wait for the Mercedes drivers to have their customary collision and pick up the pieces from there?
In the end, he did neither.
The gap was just too inviting to resist, but at the exact moment he committed to the inside of Turn 1, he immediately wished he hadn't, his muddled thought process resulting in the inevitable accident as Bottas helplessly slid into the side of Hamilton's car at the apex.
In isolation, this was nothing more than a clumsy first-corner incident as Bottas was a little too ambitious for his own good and paid the price, eventually finishing ninth after incurring a drive-through penalty.
But after 12 months of warning signs, it was final confirmation that one of the most impressive talents in modern F1 had been contaminated by the culture of his team.
Bottas had come to be regarded as a future world champion during his breakthrough year in 2014, when his six assured podium finishes guided Williams to third in the constructors' standings, their best result in 11 years.
Yet almost since that stream of podiums began to dry up in early 2015, when Williams' progress stagnated and his development—both as a driver and in career terms—stalled, Bottas has become the embodiment of a team with a habit of tripping over themselves whenever a major result is within reach.
In that sense, his mistake in Bahrain—a function of balancing his natural racing instincts with the need to secure handy constructors' points—was the driving equivalent of, say, the team's error at Silverstone 2015, when indecisive thinking saw the team fall from a position of strength to relatively nowhere.
With his contract expiring at the end of this year, Bottas has the opportunity to escape the stifling, restrictive atmosphere of Williams for 2017, with Finnish commentator Oskari Saari telling Danish publication BT (h/t Planet F1) how he received a firm offer from Renault during the August break.
However, manager Didier Coton has suggested Bottas is more than happy to remain where he is, telling Autosport (h/t Eurosport) his client has an "unfinished story" with a team who he feels could excel when the major regulation changes are introduced next year.
At the recent Singapore GP, Bottas told the official F1 website "there is still nothing to be announced yet," although—given Williams' habit of announcing both drivers in a single statement in recent years—the delay in confirming his new deal is seemingly due to the team's ongoing search for Felipe Massa's replacement.
A desire to spend a fifth season with the team he first joined as a test driver in 2010 is typical of a man as noble and loyal as Bottas.
But his apparent willingness to stay put is the sign of a driver who—having openly admitted it was "disturbing" to be linked to a team of Ferrari's stature last year, per BBC Sport—is reluctant to leave his comfort zone.
For all Bottas' confidence in his team's ability to adapt to the next generation of F1, the new-for-2017 rules and their large emphasis on downforce will exploit one of the biggest weaknesses of Williams, who have lacked the downforce of their closest rivals throughout the current regulations cycle.
Williams have taken steps to prepare for the new demands, running a double-decker rear wing and other appendages during in-season tests in an effort to simulate 2017 downforce levels.
Yet technical boss Pat Symonds' recent admission, per Autosport (h/t Eurosport), that two "quite major" upgrades introduced in 2016 haven't met Williams' expectations—a possible indication of poor correlation between the wind tunnel and the track—is hugely concerning ahead of F1's season of change.
Compare that to Renault who, after treating 2016 as a transition year, are expected to make considerable progress next season, when they will slowly but surely begin to harness all that potential at Team Enstone.
With routes to Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren-Honda all seemingly blocked, Renault may represent Bottas' only chance of racing for a factory outfit. And at 27, he fits the profile of a team searching for a driver to lead them until at least 2020, as team principal Frederic Vasseur—who oversaw Bottas' progress in the junior categories—told Motorsport.com's Roberto Chinchero.
Indeed, should Bottas suddenly decide to swap ice-white for matte-yellow, an agreement could come to fruition quite quickly.
As managing director Cyril Abiteboul told Motorsport.com's Adam Cooper, Renault's "very good friendship" with Mercedes parent company Daimler in the road-car industry has been behind their pursuit of Esteban Ocon, who spent the first half of 2016 effectively on loan to Renault.
Given Bottas' relationship with Mercedes team boss Toto Wolff, who worked alongside the Finn at Williams until the beginning of 2013, a similar, Mercedes-influenced deal may be easily arranged if he wants it.
But that—whether he wants it or not—is the key, with his decision set to reveal much about what he hopes to achieve in F1.
Is he happy to keep circulating for Williams—registering occasional podium finishes, maybe even the one-off grand prix win—and amassing points for a team more concerned with prize money than actual prizes?
Or—as with Hamilton's move from McLaren to Mercedes four years ago, when the team who made him could no longer provide what he wanted—is he ready to flee the nest and place his trust in a project with far greater long-term potential and with the ultimate aim of winning the world championship?
Having gone stale at Williams, a change of scenery and a fresh start could re-energise Bottas' career.
Williams' Felipe Massa has announced he will retire from Formula One at the conclusion of the 2016 season.
According to Pablo Elizalde of Motorsport.com, the driver revealed his plans on Thursday:
In recent months I have been thinking a lot about my future and I have taken the decision that at the end of this season, I will leave Formula 1.
Life presents us with many choices and I think for me it has got to the time where I have to go and do something different.
Maybe you will see me again at the wheel of a race car, but at the moment the only certainty I have is that I will have a lot of time to decide on what I do in the future.
Per Channel 4 F1, he reflected positively on his career:
F1 shared some of the numbers behind his time in the sport, while Williams marked the announcement with a video:
The 35-year-old started out at Sauber in 2002 before joining Ferrari in 2006.
It was with the Italian team that Massa enjoyed the best season of his career—in 2008, he won six times, including the final race of the year at the Brazilian Grand Prix, but he missed out on the world title to Lewis Hamilton by just one point.
Massa has been unable to replicate the feat since, with sixth place being the highest he's finished—it was his final position last year in the second of what will have been three seasons spent with Williams, whom he joined from Ferrari in 2014.
Reaction to the news poured in on Twitter, with many offering tributes to the driver:
Meanwhile, F1 broadcaster Jennie Gow is already looking to Williams' future:
Indeed, the team must not set about finding his replacement for next season. Reserve driver Paul di Resta could be promoted alongside Valtteri Bottas, while it would not be a surprise if Jenson Button were to move given his recent struggles at McLaren.
As for Massa, he's sure to get a magnificent reception at the upcoming Italian Grand Prix on Sunday.
He is currently in 10th place in the drivers' championship with 39 points.
With Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari already confirming their driver lineups for the 2017 Formula One season, Williams are the best-placed team with possible vacancies for next year.
Naturally, Williams and their current drivers, Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa, have become the subject of much speculation.
And aside from the present lineup, deputy team principal Claire Williams recently mentioned McLaren's Jenson Button and Force India's Sergio Perez as possible candidates for one of her team's seats, per the Press Association (h/t the Daily Mail).
So there are a lot of options for Williams, but which combination would be best for the team? And would that combination make sense for the drivers involved?
Looking at the current drivers, Bottas is just 26 years old and has the look of a future champion—or at least a grand prix winner.
In the past, he has been mentioned in the same breath as both Ferrari and Mercedes, but so far, he has spent his entire F1 career at Williams—and Williams would be wise to keep him for as long as possible. There are few drivers on the grid with more potential than the Finn.
According to Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble, "It is thought to be a formality that Valtteri Bottas will be kept by Williams for another season, especially with the team understood to have an option over his services that leaves him committed if they want him."
Even if Bottas were keen to move on after four years with the Grove-based outfit, there are not necessarily any better seats available for 2017. And besides, it sounds like Bottas is content with another year at Williams.
"Valtteri has been very adamant about his commitment towards Williams since the beginning of this season, especially because of the change in the regulations for next year and the trust he has in them," his manager, Didier Coton, recently told Autosport's Ian Parkes. "There is a bit of an unfinished story between those two, and he wants to commit as much as he can to the team."
Massa is the wild card in Williams' current lineup.
At the Hungarian Grand Prix Thursday press conference, the Brazilian said: "Plan A is to stay in a top team, in a good team, like Williams or maybe like another team. So we just need to… I think the time will give the right answer."
However, the decision is likely out of Massa's hands. If Williams decide to bring in another driver, Massa will be scrambling to find another race seat for next year—and it almost certainly would not be with a "top team."
Massa does have plenty of experience. In fact, only eight drivers have started more grands prix. He also has 11 wins and 41 podiums over his 14 years in F1.
Although he has revived his career with Williams after sitting behind Fernando Alonso at Ferrari, Massa has not been the same since his 2009 accident during Hungarian Grand Prix qualifying. He spent four more years in race-winning Ferrari cars following his injury but never returned to the top step of the podium.
However, Williams have certainly benefited from Massa's experience during their revival, and they might decide that driver stability is the best option with the significant changes to the technical regulations coming for 2017. That is what the other top teams have done.
Earlier this year, Massa told the official F1 website:
I believe with the changes that are looming for 2017 I could be someone that could be very useful and make a real difference—for whatever team, Williams or another. Just look back on how Williams were in 2013 and how they have improved - it was massive. And not just the car or the engine: the mentality of the team improved massively. I put myself behind that one hundred percent. I think I was very important for that change—and I want to be in the future too.
The reality, though, is that if Williams want to get back to winning F1 races, Massa is not the best option for them going forward.
Button's last wins came back in 2012 for McLaren, before struggling through four seasons in relatively uncompetitive cars. He started his F1 career with Williams, so a move back there would evoke some nostalgic feelings, but that is not how teams make driver decisions.
The Brit offers a similar level of experience as Massa (he is one of the few drivers with more grands prix on his resume), but have the last couple years, spent closer to the back of the grid than the front, stolen some of his edge?
It didn't look like it this year in Austria, for example, where Button qualified a brilliant fifth—McLaren's best Saturday performance since switching to Honda engines in 2015.
He may still be able to get the maximum out of his car, but signing Button would not be a long-term proposition for Williams. He will be 37 by the start of the 2017 season and might only have a year or two left in F1. There are other, younger drivers who still have plenty of experience.
Not only that, but if given the choice (he might not be), Button might prefer to stay at McLaren and finally reap some of the benefits of their Honda partnership after suffering through all the growing pains.
And that brings us to Perez. The Mexican is the same age as Bottas but already has 105 F1 starts compared to the Finn's 68.
Perez had several flashy results at Sauber in 2012, including a second-place finish in Malaysia—a race he nearly won.
McLaren signed him for 2013 to partner with Button, but the team produced a disappointing car and neither driver made it to the podium that year.
Cast aside in favour of Kevin Magnussen, Perez found a soft landing spot at Force India. Teamed with Nico Hulkenberg, Perez has arguably outshone the talented German, scoring four podium finishes since 2014, including two this year.
Like Bottas, Perez has been linked to Ferrari, but that is no longer an option for 2017. Perez does have another advantage over most drivers in that he brings a significant amount of sponsorship from Mexican businessman Carlos Slim.
Perez recently told the official F1 website that he will have a discussion with his sponsors about what is best for his future. And even if Williams do want Perez, that discussion may not turn out well for them.
Williams finished third in the constructors' championship in 2014 and 2015, but they have slipped to fourth this year and are actually in danger of being caught by Force India. Perez's current team is just 15 points behind having outscored Williams 67 to 31 since the Monaco Grand Prix.
Williams scored 320 points in 2014, 257 last year, and they are on pace for fewer than 200 this season—not exactly a promising trend.
With the changes coming for 2017, though, Perez will need to guess which team is likely to produce the better car for next year. If he chooses Williams, his talent and sponsorship should make it an easy decision for Claire Williams and the rest of the management team.
Bottas and Perez would give the team two young, exciting drivers with plenty of potential. Whether they can build a car to match their talents is another question.
If Perez is not available, it looks like a toss-up between Massa and Button, with the former's familiarity with the team weighed against the latter's commercial appeal, particularly as a championship-winning British driver on a British team.
Matthew Walthert is an F1 columnist for Bleacher Report UK. He has also written for VICE, FourFourTwo and The Globe and Mail. Follow him on Twitter:
For the third year in succession, the same old questions were being asked of same old Williams in the aftermath of the Monaco Grand Prix.
Their car had performed competently in the early weeks of the season, good enough for the team to be regarded as the best of the rest behind the usual suspects after Valtteri Bottas and Felipe Massa both scored points in each of the first five races.
But when Formula One returned to the tight and twisty streets of Monte Carlo—the first truly slow-speed, maximum-downforce venue of the season—they were nowhere.
Again.
Having qualified as high as third just two races earlier, Bottas was classified a pitiful 12th—penalised for hitting another car little more than 24 hours after his FW38 threatened to spit him into the walls of the tunnel (above)—while Massa also finished a lap down in 10th.
Although the Brazilian's points finish after being eliminated from the second segment of qualifying represented a recovery of sorts, the team's worst performance of 2016 meant Williams—despite having one of the fastest cars on the grid—had extracted just seven points from the last three Monaco Grands Prix.
And the piranha club wanted answers.
Was it acceptable that Williams were still suffering from the same fundamental problems in the third year of the existing regulations?
How could it be that an engineering team led by the likes of Pat Symonds and Rob Smedley were still unable to produce a chassis with semi-respectable slow-speed performance?
Had Williams—who launched the FW38 with the intention of maintaining everything good about its predecessor while addressing its main weaknesses, as Symonds told the team's official website in February—failed to meet one of their pre-season targets?
Thankfully, Smedley had those answers, and they may have surprised a number of people within the paddock.
Rather than being a persistent symptom of Williams' restraints and limitations, both financially and mechanically, their struggles at high-downforce tracks were simply a matter of choice, a carefully judged compromise.
Per Autosport (h/t Eurosport), Smedley explained the high-speed traits of the recent Williams cars has encouraged them to "continue to develop" in that direction.
He revealed the team, having claimed two consecutive third-place finishes in the constructors' championship in 2014 and '15, see no reason to alter that design philosophy and admitted they are prepared to simply "accept" slower circuits "are not going to be the prettiest places for Williams."
His logic, of course, is that the pain of Monaco, Hungary and Singapore will ultimately be outweighed by the pleasure of races in Canada, Austria—where Massa and Bottas locked out the front row in 2014—and Britain, where they challenged Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg for victory last year.
And on the evidence of Bottas' showing in Friday practice, when the Finn was the most consistent challenger to Mercedes just five days after claiming his first podium of 2016 in Canada, Williams can add the European Grand Prix to the list of races that will play to the strengths—or disguise the vices—of the FW38.
Despite its status as a street track, the Baku City Circuit—which features the longest straight in F1, where drivers spend more than 20 seconds on full throttle, and several other high-speed sections—may allow Williams to produce their most complete performance since late 2014, with Ferrari and Red Bull both struggling in practice.
Although Massa was also nowhere to be seen on Friday—finishing no higher than eighth in the two sessions—and has struggled at street circuits throughout his career, Bottas has proved to be among the fastest learners on the grid in recent years, quickly adapting to the demands of brand-new and unfamiliar tracks.
His maiden F1 points finish, after all, was achieved at the Circuit of the Americas in his first appearance at the venue, with Bottas claiming podiums in the first grands prix held at the returning Red Bull Ring, the Sochi Autodrom and Mexico's refurbished Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez since mid-2014.
Located in the middle of a five-race streak between Montreal and Hockenheim that should theoretically be Williams' most competitive period of the year, the European GP has also come at an ideal time in the context of the constructors' championship.
Currently nursing a 39-point lead over fellow Mercedes customers Force India, a number of champagne-drenched races over the coming weeks would effectively secure fourth place for Williams in time for the summer break, when most teams are likely to end the development of their 2016 cars with a view to next season's rule changes.
With substantial alterations set to be made to the bodywork of the cars ahead of the 2017 campaign, a significant increase in downforce will be forced upon Williams under the new regulations.
But the relatively little they currently have, coupled with the standard-setting Mercedes power unit, should be more than enough for a second consecutive podium on the long, fast streets of Baku this weekend.
Claire Williams, deputy team principal of the Williams Formula One team, told the official F1 website in November 2014, "From where we are now, 2015 should almost be a dress rehearsal for a championship challenge in 2016." After three races in 2016, it is safe to say that a title run is not going to happen for Williams this year.
Mercedes (who supply Williams with their engines) remain dominant, while Ferrari and Red Bull—with their massive budgets—are in the best position to challenge the Silver Arrows' hegemony.
Williams, who finished a brilliant third in the constructors' championship in both 2014 and 2015, are sitting fourth, closer to Toro Rosso and newcomers Haas than to Ferrari and Red Bull.
Now, after their major improvements the last two years, are Williams in danger of slipping back into the midfield?
True, Williams started relatively slowly the last two seasons, as well (they didn't score a podium before June in either year), but the trend of their race results is not promising. Felipe Massa and Valtteri Bottas were closer to the front-runners in the early races of 2014 and 2015 than they have been this season.
In Australia, Massa finished fifth but was nearly a minute behind race-winner Nico Rosberg, despite a mid-race red flag and restart. Massa and Bottas finished eighth and ninth, respectively, in Bahrain, and both were more than a lap behind Rosberg. And in China, Massa was again the top Williams driver, finishing sixth, but one minute, 15 seconds behind the winning Mercedes.
The following chart compares the top Williams driver to the race-winner at the first three grands prix for each of the last three seasons (the gap from the 2015 Chinese Grand Prix is taken from the lap before Max Verstappen's stranded Toro Rosso brought out the safety car and artificially bunched up the field at the finish):
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | Australia | Australia | |||
| Bottas | +47.639 sec | Massa | +38.196 sec | Massa | +58.979 sec |
| Malaysia | Malaysia | Bahrain | |||
| Massa | +1 min 25.076 sec | Bottas | +1 min 10.409 sec | Massa | +1 Lap |
| Bahrain | Bahrain | China | |||
| Massa | +31.265 sec | Massa | +50.368 sec | Massa | +1 min 15.511 sec |
With Ferrari and Renault closing the power deficit to the Mercedes engines, Williams are losing one of their big advantages from the last two seasons. Massa said he is hoping Mercedes will have an upgraded engine ready for the Canadian Grand Prix in June, per Crash.net's Ollie Barstow, but will it be enough?
In 2014 and 2015, four of the top six teams in the constructors' championship were Mercedes-powered. So far this year, just two of the top six teams have Merc engines.
The law of diminishing returns means the other engine manufacturers—who started out so far behind when the new hybrid power units were introduced in 2014—will inevitably close in on Mercedes. The Merc factory team, enjoying the inherent advantages of being both a constructor and engine builder (not to mention a huge budget), looks safe at the front for the foreseeable future. Their customer teams, though, are struggling.
Williams technical director Pat Symonds recently admitted to Autosport's Lawrence Barretto that the team lacks the race-strategy tools enjoyed by some of the bigger outfits.
In China, where Massa was running as high as second place, he complained that, "Definitely we did not do the right strategy compared to the other teams," per Autosport's Barretto.
"We tried a two-stop strategy but the pace was so slow."
Both Massa and Bottas have also had problems with the medium-compound tyres at times in the opening races. Massa had issues in Bahrain, and after the Chinese Grand Prix, Bottas said, "The beginning of the race was looking alright, the pace was pretty good on the soft tyres, but once I went on to the medium tyre the pace was not there and I was struggling with overall grip," according to a team press release.
The next race is in Sochi, Russia, where Bottas finished third in 2014 and Massa was fourth last year. Williams will need a strong result there if they are to keep in touch with Ferrari and Red Bull. Otherwise, they will find themselves in a battle for fourth place with Toro Rosso, Haas and, perhaps, Force India.
Fourth would still be an impressive result for a team Williams' size, but it will not make them happy—particularly if they don't break through to win their first race since Pastor Maldonado's surprise victory at the 2012 Spanish Grand Prix.
There have been several close calls, such as the Austrian Grand Prix in 2014 or the British Grand Prix last year, but the drivers have been let down by conservative strategy calls.
After the 2014 season, Claire Williams described how her father, team founder Frank Williams, reacted to their third-place finish, telling Autosport's Jonathan Noble, "Frank is saying, 'why is everyone celebrating P3? We are here to win!'"
At the end of last season, Claire Williams was confident her team could continue to beat better-funded teams on a regular basis, according to BBC Radio pundit James Allen, writing on his personal website.
Williams now need to readjust their expectations. The championship is clearly out of reach, and even a race win will require opportunistic and bold strategy, along with a bit of luck. The team's goal should now be to stay ahead of the other midfield teams and challenge those ahead of them on the tracks that suit the FW38, Williams' 2016 car.
It might be the best an independent customer team can hope for in the current world of F1.
Follow me on Twitter for updates when I publish new articles and for other (mostly) F1-related news and banter: @MatthewWalthert
The logic at Williams was as reasoned and sensible as ever.
As they became the first team to launch their 2016 Formula One car ahead of the first of two pre-season tests at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya in February, Pat Symonds revealed the thinking that resulted in the birth of the new FW38.
Rather than discussing anything from the revised suspension geometry to the new, curved sidepod inlets, however, the chief technical officer explained that behind the new car—this highly complex, state-of-the-art piece of engineering—lay a disarmingly simple idea.
As Symonds told the team's official website, the target was to concentrate on "understanding the areas where we could improve" the 2015 car "without losing the attributes which made it effective."
To do so, Williams, as reported by Autosport's Lawrence Barretto, took the unusual and very modern step of forming a "working group" dedicated to solving the team's issues with understeer at low-speed circuits and in wet conditions, in which the third-fastest car in Formula One would often become completely unworkable.
And, on the evidence of the opening test at least, the mission has been accomplished.
Following his first two days with the FW38, Valtteri Bottas told Autosport's Barretto that while he was unsure if the team have done enough to stay close to Mercedes and Ferrari, he could "feel" the new car is already superior to its predecessor, confirming Williams have successfully "improved many of the weaknesses of last year."
Yet whether Williams have erased their main weakness of last year is unclear, for—unlike an unresponsive front end on the streets of Monaco—it is not something a working group, a committee or, to give it its proper name, a bunch of engineers sat around a table at the factory can easily resolve.
As, ultimately, a fast, well-balanced car is nothing without a team who can exploit it to its full potential.
Despite comfortably finishing third in the constructors' championship for the second successive season in 2015, Williams were incredibly fortunate to finish as high as they did in the final standings.
Fortunate in the sense that Red Bull were at war with Renault, fortunate that McLaren's renewed partnership with Honda began so terribly and fortunate that Force India's B-specification car did not race until the midseason stage—allowing Williams to finish third almost by default.
After the missed opportunities of 2014—most notably at the Austrian Grand Prix, where Bottas and Felipe Massa locked out the front row in qualifying only to fall to third and fourth respectively in the race—the team continued to be their own worst enemies from an operational perspective last season.
There was, of course, the silliness at Silverstone, where the pit wall panicked as their drivers found themselves in the lead of the race, but more concerning were the mistakes on the days Williams were under relatively little pressure.
Pit-stop blunders in Belgium, where Bottas' car was fitted with two different tyre compounds, and Abu Dhabi, where the Finn was released into the path of Jenson Button and consequently lost his front wing, were the type of clumsy, inexcusable errors you would not associate with a team led by a man of Symonds' experience.
Yet rather ruing what they don't achieve, Williams have often campaigned to celebrate what they do, with Symonds and deputy team principal Claire Williams claiming the team have not been given enough credit for their performances over the last two seasons in a Sky Sports television feature in 2015.
There is an element of truth to that, of course, although the team often appear to be a little too anxious to hide behind their inferiority complex—and their lack of resources compared to the likes of Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and McLaren—in an effort to disguise their shortcomings.
With 2016 set to be the final year of the current regulations, and with no guarantee that their current level of performance will extend beyond this season, the stage seems set for Williams to become more adventurous, more daring, to take the initiative in situations in which they would normally be so frustratingly tentative.
Indeed, Bottas has already spoken of his desire to perform with more aggression, per Autosport's Barretto, suggesting he wants to alter his reputation as "a conservative driver, always bringing the car home" ahead of what could be a crucial season in his career.
But could it be that Williams have already missed their best chance to claim a grand prix victory for the first time since the Spanish GP of 2012?
With Red Bull, Force India and, to a lesser extent, McLaren—not to mention the Ferrari-powered Toro Rosso outfit—all in better shape than at this stage 12 months ago, the team are almost certain to be looking behind, rather than ahead, this season.
And simply clinging onto third place in the championship, their standard position since 2014, will be viewed exactly how Williams want it to be perceived: an outstanding result for a team of their size.
The key, as Symonds declared, is to address their biggest weaknesses while maintaining everything good about Williams up to now.
But that, as is often the case with this team, will be easier said than done.
